Ending wedge timing target completion, reversal is likelyEnding wedges tend to complete their 3-5 section at 0.618 the time it took to complete the 1-3 section.
The due timing was today, 10-am CET.
Happy trading.
FRA40 trade ideas
FRA40 SWING SHORTFRA40 seems to be getting challenged at the swing, sign of a drop comming the week ahead.
5) Get Scenario 2 if Scenario 1 doesn't work: Adapt the charts Just in case if the previous scenario (short at 4600) doesn't pan out and that the top actually becomes circa 4666.
See previous article :)
4) Repeat: The European Central Bank created artificial pricesAugust 14, 2016
This is the text from my comments on the charts:
January 2015: These levels above 4530-4600 are totally artificial .It was an aberration created by the European Central Bank (Quantitative Easing),
which helped the CAC40 hits its long term diagonal resistance before it would collapse.
Greece and China were merely excuses.
Greek CDS (Credit Default Swaps) clearly showed that Greece had a bond default probability of about 85% in January 2015. Well done !
Can you see that by the end of 2015, the price of the CAC40 went back to its last value of about 4550?
It was a lost year. And yes you are not seeing it wrong: that is the infamous Head & Shoulder pattern, as I mentioned many times here and elsewhere.
European + US indices will certainly start plummeting in a month or two in my high opinion.
The blue lines being shown merely depict one possible path and cannot be taken for granted. You guys can perform an Elliott Waves analysis and see.
I do not currently possess enough knowledge/information nor the right skills to tell whether this would work or not. We shall see how it plays out !
So everything is rigged (US: Triple new high records since 1999)Hello folks, so as I mentioned earlier in my previous posts. The CAC40 would go higher (so would European indices, but the German DAX wasn't as eager as the French index to do so). The 4300-4450 range worked perfectly, and we went even higher (4500). However .
Thursday's (August 11, 2016) US markets was clearly "algorithmically" driven. I think that scalpers and day trader could see how the prices moved *again* in some "strange" fashion. And out of the blue, the US markets were on cloud nine and made a triple all time records that day, altogether (see 1999 and what ensued). The CAC40 and other indices followed suit.
Which means that the 4450 level was certainly pierced thanks to lower volume (I don't even need to check any indicator, but my guess could be wrong: are you people confirming or infirming it?) and more importantly, to super mega algorithmic trading.
Yes, you probably got my point: The extra 50 points above 4450 was according to me noise inside the noise . Hence the erratic moves and consolidation from Friday. Which means that this mini breakout was probably fake. I would have a short bias/opinion during the first on two days of next week (August 15-21, 2016), until we get to 4445-4460. I would personally go long only after we get at least there, or if we clearly break through 4510-4530 for a couple of days if this scenario doesn't work. But there could be some tricky moves slightly above 4500 this coming Monday before we go back to 4445-4460. Pay attention to that.
The risk reward is higher by doing swing trading and shorting. I would short with my eyes *closed* at 4600. 4666 (pivot) could be some "noise target" , but long positions would ultimately fail, hence a stop-loss at 4700. Of course, I do not possess a crystal ball, but there is rationality in apparent irrationality, and the game is about to decipher those moves without becoming slaughtered by the big guns and "smart traders". Go catch those high-probability trades. We are soon getting there.
Notice: There's a gap at 4360 (CAC40) and a small gap at 18610 and around 18500 for the DowJones. Tricky isn't it? Which infers to me that shorting provides a higher risk-reward ratio.
Likely an ending wedge in CACI think EU&GB indices are all running a flat or a zigzag correction which, once completed, will be followed by the next wave of the bear market which should yield a 20-25% decline in indices. In CAC40 I see there is an ending wedge forming in the C wave of a flat correction, which suggests it should be very quickly retraced.
I don't want to call tops any more, I now want the top to show itself, but once we see the top formed the decline will be quite steep. We need to wait for a few more days in order to see the market reversal.
How to know when stuff are rigged ? NFP, indices, gold price ...August 8, 2016
This is an abstract from my one of my blogs: www.lucky-index-trading.blogspot.com
Compare this chart with my previous publication and comments
So, from my experience, this is how it worked (and obviously I am merely stating a little portion of the big picture, but so far this "luckily" was enough to help predicting some moves based on correlation).
Last Friday's US Non-farm Payroll (NFP - August 5, 2016) was apparently rigged according to some sources. Well, we did not really need to know how the fundamental worked to know the blue print would be "good" and thereby certainly pushing prices up, as the odds for indices to head upward was higher than otherwise. Let me explain.
Do you remember the previous article I posted on July 31st, 2016? Yes, the one with the forecast of the CAC. So I was saying that a false breakout from the 4300-4450 range could occur (target: 4600). The CAC 40 did exactly range last week (August 1-5), going from about 4480 to as low as 4293 and now it is back to 4440 at the time I am writing this post. The trading range was perfectly supported by price action, supports / resistances, and so on. But moreover, if was also confirmed by the NFP's result, "fundamentally" pushing up on the CAC and making it soar from 4360 to 4410, therefore confirming the 4300-4450 range as previously stated in article 174 of the blog).
Now, the SP500 made a new all-time record, and the Dow Jones soared along with the NASDAQ. What I mean is that it was totally predictable, because no matter what European indices had to go up, technically speaking. So in order to push the markets higher, data had to be manipulated.On the other hand, I made a forecast 2 years ago on Gold (XAUUSD), stating it would go as low as 1080 and then going back to 1367 (see article 118 + related charts). Since gold price reached 1370, it had to pullback (ie. go down). Given that it is for the time being negatively correlated with stock market indices, then if the Dow Jones is up, gold price will decrease. And this is exactly what we wanted since the target of roughly 1350-1367 was reached !
Therefore, from solely using gold price forecast and European price forecast, we could infer that the NFP result would be good, and send American indices to the sky. This is in my sense manipulation, and the bubble will probably burst next year. My take is that indices will globally shift downward in 1 or 2 months.
CAC 40, Daily chart (see post from July 31st -> 2016-2018 forecast)
-> It exactly did start to range from 4300 to 4450 !
Long from bottom of channel, but lookout for breakoutsLong from bottom of channel, but lookout for breakouts
Long on bottom channel or Short at top channel. When breakout on close, follow trend after a pullback
CAC 40 + European Indices Forecast 2016-2018: False BreakoutHello folks ! This is my first post on tradingview.com. This is an abstract from one of my blogs: www.lucky-index-trading.blogspot.com
Enjoy :)
I have reconfirmed a short-selling target of the CAC 40 at about 4600. Stop-loss orders could be set above 4700.
First bearish target: ~3450-3500
Second bearish target: ~3050
Please find below a graph (weekly) with some comment's I've made.
It is very important to see how other markets are reacting and to spot any correlation or absence of correlation in order to strengthen/weaken confirmation(s).
CAC40 RestsiatnceCAC40 Resistance 2015 Trendline DOWN
Possible break UP to 2011 Upper Trendline
Overall looking for SHORT Position
iBrokers
www.ibrokers.ee
CAC 40: TRADING IN A RANGE?After a big drop CAC 40 seems trading in a range. If this is the general idea now the price is reaching the top of this range. If the upper channel holds look for possible shorting opportunities.
$CAC40 Under Geo's Bearish Pressure | #fibonacci #euro $EUR $GBPFriends,
Following is a composite technical analytic view of $CAC40, in which all aspects of technical tools are displayed as shown in the following chart - We will dissect each of there thereafter:
Looking in detail at each of the following components, let's consider the following items:
1 - PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
As a foreground, stand-alone proprietary element, the "Model" is defining the following BEARISH targets:
1 - TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015
and
2 - TG-Lox = 3384.19 - 12 AUG 2015
GEO'S OFF-SET RULE:
The Geo relies on adverse excursions to establish high-probability targets, such that the following expresses the "Geos' Off-Set Rule":
1 - Price retracing from Point-5 aims for validation along the 1-4 Line (Wolfe Wave rule);
2 - Price retracing from Point-5' (most common occurrence) aims for price level corresponding to Point-4;
and
3 - Price retracing from Point-5'' (least common occurrence) aims for a price level corresponding to Point-3.
In the case of the current chart, price retraces from Point-5', thus aiming for a HIGH-PROBABILITY target corresponding to Point-4, which in terms of the Predictive/Forecasting Model corresponds to:
- TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015
In the most immediate support, consider the following cluster:
1 - 1.618-FE = 4180.54
and
2 - Nodal Core = 4193.88 ("ND")
and
3 - Point-1 of Geo, offering a structural point of repose as price retraces from Point-2 and Point-5'.
Where 1.618-FE = ND
As shown in the dashed arrow in the chart, this structural level is likely to see a slight retracement capped at the support-turned-resistance of 4601.90.
STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS:
Levels 1, 2 and 3 on the left side of the price field represent structural levels, such that:
1 - Number-1 represents that level of Geo's Point-1, offering the most immediate structural support from retracement of swing between Geo's Point-2 and Point-5'.
2 - Number-2 Offers a temporizing support which defined a channel capped above by #1 as defined above and #3, which offered the first and subsequent R/S levels as shown - This levels happens to line up with Model's TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015 level.
3 - Number, as explained above, also happens to line up with Model's TG-Lox = 3384.19 - 12 AUG 2015 level.
OVERALL:
Bears are taking over. Invalidation would occur if and once price rallied above Point-5', or 5283.71. Still, the Model remains the dominant indicator at this point, tilting the balance in favor of bears with targets defined above and further supported by technicals as mentioned above as well.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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Consolidation: Should drop a little then resume trendConsolidation: Should drop a little then resume trend, possibly:
touch the bottom band
bottom trendline
before resuming trend
