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USAIND trade ideas

3.5% Decline on The Dow Jones 30 But Is This Unusual?Looking at the trend structure over the last 8 months, we can see a pattern play out. Since April, pullbacks of between 3.5% and 7% have been part and parcel of the Dow Jones’s trend structure. (highlighted in red) The current pullback of 3.5% falls within this range. Note also how our trend filter remains mostly green and grey, with speckles of red, since April, in line with the long-term bull trend. The index has now fallen to the d50sma (orange line), where we want to see it find support, bounce, break out and continue its climb to 50,000, as it has done since April. The Dow Jones is also a good example of how trend structures can change despite no change in direction. October to March saw a much faster trend, using the d20sma (blue line) as support, eventually breaking through in April and leading to a change in trend structure. The Dow Jones is currently lagging behind the Nasdaq 100, which is setting record highs above 20,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500, which has settled into a mini consolidation above the 6000 level. We ideally want to see Santa deliver in the final 2 weeks of December. However, if the indices and stocks don't show new trend continuations through the rest of 2024, we want them to hold within consolidation, which will act a bases for trends in the New Year. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment. :0) See below for more information on our trading and trend-following techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
DJ:DJILong
by Sublime_Trading
Big Money Complacency AKA "Deer In the Headlights"The violent US market selloff this afternoon after the Fed cut interest rates was proceeded by 9 straight days of selling in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yesterday I posed the observation that the 9 consecutive days selling had been a warning of something ominous and yet unknown coming soon to the market. But no, complacency reigned. The Fed would bail out the market the way they always do. But no, today quite the contrary. They're faith in all that was overwhelmingly "overwhelmed". The proof of that " massive surprise " was shown in the VIX, which get this rose, 74 % in just one day to 27. My point in all this is that traders in the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average had sniffed out all of this 10 days ago. Sometimes broader markets show telling signs of "deer in the headlights". This one was about big money complacency. And as todays selloff proved.. they paid harshly for that misguided misjudgment. THE_UNWIND 12/18/24 WOOODS OF CONNECTICUT
TVC:DJIShort
by The_Unwind
Why is Dow Jones on a losing streak?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (Ticker AT: USAIND) recently experienced its longest negative streak since 2018, racking up eight consecutive sessions of declines. This downtrend began on December 4, when the index closed above 45,000 points for the first time in history. Since then, it has shown a downward trend, reflecting the volatility and fluctuations of the market in the current period. During this period, the DJIA has shown a downward trend, while other indexes such as the Nasdaq have experienced increases, reaching new all-time highs. For example, the Nasdaq rose 1.24% and closed at new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.38%. However, these positive closes were the result of the strong performance of a few stocks, such as Alphabet, Apple and Tesla, which set new all-time highs. The recent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), is due to several factors that have generated uncertainty in the markets. Here are the main reasons behind this behavior: 1. Interest Rate Concerns 2. • The persistence of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to combat inflation continues to negatively affect sensitive sectors, such as real estate and industrials. • Investors fear that these rates could be prolonged, limiting economic growth. 2.Recession Fears • Mixed economic data, such as a slowdown in consumer spending and industrial production, have fueled concerns about a possible recession in 2024. • Although the labor market remains strong, other indicators, such as the manufacturing index, reflect weakness. 3. Impact of the Industrial Sector • Given that the DJIA is largely comprised of industrial and consumer goods companies, any weakness in these sectors directly impacts its performance. • Key companies in the index, such as Boeing and Caterpillar, have suffered setbacks due to global uncertainty. 4. Strength of the dollar • The strengthening of the dollar against other currencies negatively affects DJIA companies with high international exposure, reducing the competitiveness of their products abroad. 5. Rotation to Other Indices • Investors are favoring indices more exposed to the technology sector, such as the Nasdaq, which has had a positive performance thanks to the momentum of artificial intelligence and other technological advances. 6. Geopolitical Tensions • Uncertainties in the Middle East, as well as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have increased risk aversion, especially affecting global companies in the DJIA. On the technical side, the index has had several bearish days that are reaching its last support zone near 43,300 points. If this zone is pierced, it could evolve towards the checkpoint near 42,100 points. On the other hand, the index is currently oversold at 41.72% and its mid-range crosses do not indicate a change in direction. If we look at the MACD if there has been a turn of the trend of the average of 12 crossing below the average of 26, which shows that in the short term this situation does not seem to have changed. It is important to note that the DJIA is a price-weighted index, which means that higher-priced stocks have a more significant impact on its movement. Therefore, fluctuations in the prices of high-value stocks can significantly influence the index's performance. For investors and analysts, this negative streak in the DJIA underscores the importance of monitoring market trends and considering factors such as index composition, global economic conditions and monetary policies that can influence stock index performance. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USAIND
by ActivTrades
US30 Intra-Week Analysis DEC 17th 2024US30 continued to make its way down to the 43400 Key Level after retracing from the new All-Time-High and supporting the FUD from an increase in interested rates. From this price point we can expect a decrease in volume resulting in consolidation as we approach Christmas and the new year. If we see a break above 43800 that will help support potential buys back to ATHs otherwise look out for a break below 43250 meaning selling momentum is still there.
CAPITALCOM:US30
by Itskaleel
US30 in consolidation patter but will likely fall someUS30 is showing resilliance at support level 43700 with the entire day hovering on or around that support line. Price is currently within the trend line channel and and therefore would have to consolidate above that support area in order to maintain its levels. If price within the next 8 hours does not recover above the current support line it will likely fall some more. The next support level is at 43500. Look to short the US30 from a retest of the current support line to at least 43500. Make sure to set your TPs properly because it will be a fast fall to a rebound when it does. Follow me for more insights. Comment below for questions.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by leslyjeanbaptiste
US30 BACK TO BULLISH?For the last 3 months (beginning of September) US30 has completed 3 gold zone Fibonacci setups, while making new highs shortly after. It is now at the 4th gold zone (.618-.5 give or take) and may be looking to reject anywhere in this realm and buy for ATH or possibly a new ATH. This would be the 4th consecutive gold zone fib setup in 3 months. With CPI matching the exact forecast and the Feds rate cuts more than likely awaiting to happen, this looks like a perfect time to buy here at this zone. A first TP would be ATH around 45,085 A second TP could possibly be a NEW ATH several hundred points above the previous (targets never seen before May be hard to pinpoint with an exact TP price) Nonetheless this looks like a solid trade idea. Thoughts?
FX:US30Long
by FatherDomenic
1
US30 Falls to 42200 and is now in buyers ZoneUS30 Falls yesterday causing much of the traders to lose their bullish trades. The market faked like it wanted to go bullish but slid over 250 points. Price is currently closer to support 42300 and is likely to continue to consolidate between here and 92900. This is a zone to take small intraday trades to make up for any losses sustained with yesterday's slide. For bullish confirmation look for a retest above 42900. Be careful by paying attention to look for higher highs and higher lows. Be safe out there. Good trading.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by leslyjeanbaptiste
Return to the upward trend!!As always, the mathematical model NDS has been used in developing this idea. 📊 As you can see, the Dow Jones index 📉 is expected to complete its final downward step around the 44152 region. Following this, it will likely head upward 📈 to complete node F3 within F3, in line with the rules of fractal mathematics 🔄, and ultimately reach its ALL-TIME HIGH once again 🚀✨. Our expected targets are as follows: 🎯. 🎯 first target = 44469 🎯secend target = 44724 🎯third target = 44900 🎯FINAL TARGET = 45064
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by Matin009
4
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected. This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974. 🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index. 1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20 The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends. 2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market. 3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance. 📈 Price Action Analysis The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA. ✅ Key Takeaway By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Investic_analytics
US30 painting a beautiful downtrendUS30 Technical Analysis Report December 16, 2024 Current Market Overview The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is currently displaying a significant bearish bias, with multiple timeframe analysis supporting a continuation of the downward momentum. Current price: 43,886 Technical Analysis by Timeframe Daily Timeframe (HTF) Confirmed bearish market structure break at 44,392 (December 10, 2024) Overall Higher Timeframe trend remains bearish This break serves as a key reference point for the current bearish momentum 4-Hour Timeframe (H4) Clear downtrend pattern formation Current price action showing retracement to sweep buy/sell liquidity zones Price action respecting the downward trendline range Suggested entry level identified at 43,809 1-Hour Timeframe (H1) Key resistance level identified at 44,058 Potential for temporary trend interruption if this level is breached Currently operating within Asian session range boundaries Key Trading Levels Entry Target: 43,809 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 43,345 Extended Target (TP2): 42,890 (conditional on market alignment) Key Resistance: 44,058 Previous Structure Break: 44,392 Volume Analysis Current phase: Asian session (characterized by lower volume) Critical observation period: New York session open Anticipating increased volume and potential trend confirmation during NY hours Risk Management Considerations Primary trend remains bearish Watch for potential temporary reversals at 44,058 Monitor NY session volume for trade confirmation Consider partial position closure at TP1 (43,345) Trading Session Context Currently in Asian trading hours Key decision point expected at NY session open Volume expected to increase significantly during NY hours, providing better trade execution opportunities Trade Strategy Summary The overall strategy aligns with the bearish bias across multiple timeframes. Entry opportunities are being monitored at 43,809, with a structured approach to take profit levels. The New York session will be crucial for volume confirmation of the anticipated moves. Note: This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All traders should conduct their own research and risk assessment before entering any positions.
ICMARKETS:US30Short
by FXCapitalClub
Santa abandons the Dow 30Buyers in the Dow Jones are likely frustrated given the recent gains in other stock indices, and as sellers are aggressively challenging the bullish uptrend, with the index nearly erasing all gains of its 5% rally off the November 19 low. As the price approaches a prior consolidation zone between 43,319 and 43,557, a reaction is likely, potentially forming a bottom and pushing higher as the December Santa rally begins. We maintain a bullish bias above 43,111, the November 20 low. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:US30Long
by ThinkMarkets
Price Tests Key Levels as Bullish and Bearish Momentum CompeteTechnical Analysis The price dropped as anticipated in the previous analysis. Today, the price is likely to attempt to reach 41,960. A break below this level would confirm further bearish movement toward 41,740. However, if the price stabilizes above 41,970, it could support a bullish move toward the pivot zone at 42,370. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 42130 Resistance Levels: 42370, 42590, 42770 Support Levels: 41970, 41740, 41560 Trend Outlook: Bullish Momentum: Expected if the price stabilizes above 41,970. Bearish Momentum: Likely with stability below 41,970. previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
US30 indicating a bullish move. Look for the Bulls TodayUS30 has finally broken the downward trend above the 43500 support line. The US30 gave us an evening star pattern off of the trend line and support area at 43500. This was an indication to go Long. If you are in a short, you will likely have to wait for a pull back to get out of your trade or you can close in a small loss. If you are in a long. Hold it. This may be US30 returning back to 44500 at least. Good Luck to you traders. Comment below for questions and don't forget to boost this if you like the analysis.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by leslyjeanbaptiste
The Mystery Of The Dow Index..Here is an interesting trend trade swing opportunity. I already have my index quota filled although as US index long is not the worst of ideas. The trend trade in question is the Dow Jones (US30) which is technically setting up and awaiting a daily buy signal/bar. Here is the interesting aspect. Why on earth is the DJI dropping for over a week back to averages while the SPY/SPX remains near ATHs? This divergence is creating the DJI trend trade but the fundamentals behind it need to be understood. Both indices should be behaving similarly as they have for quite a while now but the recent divergence has to be due to a combination of risk factors which are just now aligning that way. Sector composition is different, right? S&P is heavy tech and growth while DJI is traditional large caps. But they should react the same way to the sentiment environment and FED cut expectations so what gives? Maybe it is just tech. Tech is booming again with AI so it stands to reason that the S&P would hold an edge. Still, the environment is the same for traditional stocks and even if there should be a difference in gains, there surely shouldn't be a 100% divergence? Maybe it is investor sentiment? Markets are all in on AI while traditional stocks are seeing pre holiday profit taking? Could be. Is the December H2 Santa rally around the corner and the DJI dip buy is in play? That's a lot of speculation for such a divergence. Then we come to macro and this is where I think things begin to look different. Inflation has been coming in hot. But so has some other macro, macro that favours growth - and the FED cuts do to - so the S&P strength is probably warranted. The DJI is not so much about growth and probably more sensitive to inflationary pressures. I think that the inflation prints coming in hot may have been brushed off by the S&P and broader market, including the FED... but not by interest rate sensitive sectors of the DJI.
BLACKBULL:US30
by WillSebastian