US30 will drop by another 10% in next 4 weeks📊 My Macro Analysis Breakdown
Covid Crash:
Sharp -25% collapse.
V-shaped recovery, before another -10%
Inflation Explosion (2022):
-21% drop due to Fed rate hikes.
Choppy sideways market after.
Inflation Cooled (Nov-Dec 23):
Big +22% rally when markets priced in rate cuts.
Trump Re-Election (Nov 2024):
Stocks rallied ~8%.
US Tariffs "Lib Day" (April 2025):
Current Phase: Huge initial crash of -10%.
Projection: I am forecasting another -10% to -12% downside toward 32,352 area.
🧠 Why My Prediction Makes Sense:
Markets always overshoot after a major policy shock (tariffs are no small thing — this is bigger than inflation).
Fed won't act yet (cut rates) until serious economic data deterioration happens.
Global slowdown fears are increasing (China, Europe showing signs too).
Corporate earnings for Q1 2025 are about to be revised down = next catalyst for more selling.
Technical structure resembles past correction patterns (Covid, Inflation explosion).
📅 Timing (based on past crashes I charted):
Covid crash: 5-6 weeks.
Inflation crash: 2-3 months.
This one: Likely 4-8 weeks of choppy downside.
⚡ Conclusion:
✅ A prediction of another ~10% drop is totally aligned with both macro fundamentals and technical history.
✅ Expect violent bear market rallies (sharp 2-5% spikes) inside the downtrend — that's normal.
✅ Bias: Sell the rallies, buy safe havens (gold after the dip, bonds).
