Dow Eyes 42,800 Resistance – Key Breakout Ahead?The Dow is currently holding near the neckline of a double-top formation that developed between December 2024 and February 2025, possibly buoyed by ongoing tech and Nasdaq optimism. The broader rebound from the 2025 lows is also forming a diagonal structure, setting up the following scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
With weekly RSI holding above the 50 neutral zone after rebounding from oversold levels last seen in 2020, a sustained move above the 42,800-resistance level could extend the rally toward 43,800 and 44,800. A breakout above the all-time high near 45,000 would open the door toward the next major resistance at 46,800.
Bearish Scenario:
If the diagonal formation breaks to the downside—below 41,400 and 41,000—selling pressure could resume, forming a diagonal correction targeting support levels at 40,400, 39,700, and 39,000.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USAIND trade ideas
US30Correlation Between US30, 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and DXY
1. Bond Prices vs. Yields
Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa.
Example: If the 10-year Treasury bond price drops (due to selling pressure), its yield rises to attract buyers.
Current 10-year yield: 4.54% (as of May 21, 2025).
2. 10-Year Yield vs. DXY (US Dollar Index)
Typical Positive Correlation: Higher yields attract foreign capital into USD-denominated assets, strengthening the dollar (DXY↑).
Recent Divergence:
A rising 10-year yield paired with a weakening DXY may signal market skepticism about Fed policy or risk aversion (e.g., investors favor Treasuries as safe havens despite lower yields).
Example: If yields rise due to inflation fears without economic growth, DXY may weaken as traders doubt the Fed’s ability to sustain rate hikes.
3. DXY vs. US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Inverse Correlation: A weaker dollar (DXY↓) often supports equity indices like US30, as multinational companies benefit from cheaper exports and higher overseas earnings.
Exceptions:
In risk-off environments, a stronger dollar (DXY↑) may coincide with equity sell-offs as investors flee to safe-haven assets.
4. 10-Year Yield vs. US30
Mixed Relationship:
Negative: Rising yields can pressure equities (US30↓) as higher borrowing costs reduce corporate profits and make bonds more attractive.
Positive: Yields rising due to growth optimism may lift stocks (US30↑) if earnings expectations improve.
5. Yield Curve Dynamics (30-10 Year Spread)
Current Spread: 0.51% (30-year yield: 4.94%, 10-year yield: 4.43%).
Implications:
A widening spread (30-year > 10-year) suggests long-term growth/inflation expectations.
A flattening/inverted spread signals economic uncertainty or recession fears.
Summary Table of Relationships
Factor Relationship with DXY Relationship with US30
10-Year Yield ↑ Typically ↑ (if growth-driven) ↓ (if rate-driven) / ↑ (if growth-driven)
Bond Prices ↑ ↓ (yields fall, USD less attractive) ↑ (cheaper borrowing)
DXY ↑ — Typically ↓ (hurts exports)
30-10 Spread Widens Neutral ↑ (growth optimism)
Key Scenarios
Risk-On Environment:
DXY↓ + US30↑ + Yields↑ (growth optimism).
Example: Weaker dollar boosts equities despite rising yields.
Risk-Off Environment:
DXY↑ + US30↓ + Yields↓ (safe-haven demand for bonds and USD).
Policy Divergence:
Yields↑ + DXY↓ (markets doubt Fed’s ability to sustain hikes despite inflation).
Conclusion
The interplay between US30, bond yields, prices, and DXY is dynamic and context-dependent:
Yield-DXY Link: Normally positive but can diverge during policy uncertainty or risk aversion.
DXY-US30 Link: Typically inverse but influenced by macroeconomic drivers.
Yield Curve: A widening 30-10 spread supports growth optimism, while flattening signals caution.
Traders must monitor Fed policy, inflation data, and risk sentiment to navigate these correlations effectively.
Hanzo / US30 15m Path ( Confirmed Breakout Zones )🆚 US30
The Path of Precision – Hanzo’s Market tactics
🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 15M TF
☄️ Bullish Setup After Break Out – 42240 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
Reasons
Bullish After Break
42250
1hr key level
Retest - History
27 May / 2025
21 May / 2025
19 May / 2025
16 May / 2025
15 May / 2025
14 May / 2025
☄️ Bearish Setup After Break Out – 42075 Zone
Reasons
1hr key level
Retest - History
26 May / 2025
27 May / 2025
And Next Key level Is Far
41925
we have 150 PIP Range
SHORT ON US30US30 Has given us a nice pullback to a major supply area.
I am expecting price to rise a little higher into the supply are then give us a major drop to the previous swing low for over 1000 points!!!
I have placed a sell limit order withing the supply area looking to short us30 for the rest of the week.
Sell us30 Key Observations:
Market Structure:
Choch (Change of Character) marked → suggests a shift from bullish to bearish structure.
BOS (Break of Structure) below recent lows confirms bearish pressure.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
H1 FVG and IFVG (Internal FVG) have already been touched and price reacted bearishly.
H4 FVG above is unmitigated, acting as a potential supply zone.
Weekly FVG above current price – could be a long-term draw on liquidity but not immediate.
Trendline (Support):
Price is approaching an ascending trendline acting as dynamic support around 41,890 area.
If this trendline holds, a bounce is possible before any further drop.
Price Action:
Strong bearish candles breaking through the H1 FVG.
Sell-side liquidity beneath equal lows and trendline may be the target.
---
🧠 Bias Summary:
✅ Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Reason: BOS + Choch + strong downside momentum + fair value gap fills.
Expectation: Price may seek liquidity below the trendline (41,800–41,600 zone).
⚠️ Watch for a Potential Bounce:
At the trendline zone (41,880–41,900), possible reaction or retracement.
If a strong bullish reaction forms here with displacement, we could see a move back up to fill the H4 FVG.
---
📍 Bias = Bearish, with potential for short-term retracement or liquidity sweep before continuation
Price Patterns Every Trader Should KnowLearn how to trade using price patterns! In this video, we cover continuation, reversal, and bi-directional patterns, including flags, wedges, triangles, and more. You'll see schematics, real chart examples, and learn how to combine them with confluence for better setups.
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The Dow Jones Begins to Stabilize Around 42,500 PointsThe U.S. index has halted the advance of its recent bullish moves near this resistance zone, mainly because the market is awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve minutes later today, along with Nvidia’s earnings report, expected after the stock market close. For now, investor anticipation has created a neutral sentiment in the index's recent movements as it approaches the 42,500-point resistance, and these upcoming events are likely to provide deeper insight into the market’s direction in the coming sessions.
Possible Bullish Channel
Since early April, the Dow Jones has shown consistent buying movements, attempting to maintain a potential bullish channel. So far, there have been no signs of significant bearish corrections in the price, which suggests that the current bullish pattern remains the dominant structure to monitor in the short term. However, a strong selling correction could put this trend at risk.
Neutrality Intensifies:
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to hover around the zero line, reflecting a sustained equilibrium in the momentum of the moving averages. This highlights a lack of clear direction in the market over the short term.
ADX: The ADX line remains below the 20 level, indicating that volatility is low, a condition not seen since February of this year.
Both indicators point to persistent neutrality, likely driven by market indecision ahead of key fundamental events, as well as the technical resistance zone, which is currently limiting price advances.
Key Levels to Watch:
42,500 points: Current resistance level aligned with the 200-period moving average. It may act as a potential point for bearish corrections.
43,800 points: A distant resistance level not seen since February. If the price rallies to this level, it could reinforce the current bullish formation and strengthen the prevailing upward channel.
41,100 points: A key support aligned with the 50-period moving average. A drop near this level could jeopardize the bullish formation and potentially shift momentum toward a bearish bias.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
US30 H1 | Bullish Bounce Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 42098.02, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 42539.90, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss is placed at 41774.23, a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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Bias: Short-Term Bullish, Medium-Term BearishReasons:
1. Current Price Action:
Price is within an upward channel and currently trading in the middle-to-upper range.
A recent bullish move broke structure to the upside after a Change of Character (Choch), suggesting bullish short-term momentum.
2. Liquidity Targets:
Price is approaching a Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) above current levels. This area can act as a liquidity magnet, encouraging a move up to fill the imbalance before any rejection.
3. Internal FVG (IFVG):
There’s an IFVG where price is currently reacting. This may cause short-term consolidation or a reaction.
If price closes above this IFVG and holds, it could continue to the Weekly FVG.
4. Downside Potential:
After hitting the Weekly FVG, potential distribution or mitigation could occur, leading to a reversal.
The large FVG below (around 41,600–41,200) is a prime target for a deeper retracement or sell-off once liquidity above is swept.
5. Choch Zones:
Previous bearish Choch above suggests prior demand turned supply, reinforcing the likelihood of rejection if price returns there.
---
Trade Considerations:
Bullish Bias until Weekly FVG is tapped.
Switch to Bearish Bias if rejection signs appear after liquidity sweep above the Weekly FVG.
Watch for entry confirmation on lower timeframes near IFVG or Weekly FVG zones.
Bias: Short-Term Bullish, Medium-Term BearishReasons:
1. Current Price Action:
Price is within an upward channel and currently trading in the middle-to-upper range.
A recent bullish move broke structure to the upside after a Change of Character (Choch), suggesting bullish short-term momentum.
2. Liquidity Targets:
Price is approaching a Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) above current levels. This area can act as a liquidity magnet, encouraging a move up to fill the imbalance before any rejection.
3. Internal FVG (IFVG):
There’s an IFVG where price is currently reacting. This may cause short-term consolidation or a reaction.
If price closes above this IFVG and holds, it could continue to the Weekly FVG.
4. Downside Potential:
After hitting the Weekly FVG, potential distribution or mitigation could occur, leading to a reversal.
The large FVG below (around 41,600–41,200) is a prime target for a deeper retracement or sell-off once liquidity above is swept.
5. Choch Zones:
Previous bearish Choch above suggests prior demand turned supply, reinforcing the likelihood of rejection if price returns there.
---
Trade Considerations:
Bullish Bias until Weekly FVG is tapped.
Switch to Bearish Bias if rejection signs appear after liquidity sweep above the Weekly FVG.
Watch for entry confirmation on lower timeframes near IFVG or Weekly FVG zones.
US30: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 42,126.0 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 42,199.7.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US30 - At Resistance? Holds or not??#US30 #DOWJONES - market just reached near to his current resistance region.
And if market hold it in that case we can expect a drop from here.
So don't be lazy here and only short below that.
Note: we will go for cut n reverse above region on confirmation.
Good luck
Trade wisely
US30 SELL OPPORTUNITYBasic Trading: 1 HR Time Frame
To join my signal group on telegram comment with your cell number (500 ZAR per month)
1. The market is currently trading above support which will be broken
2. Once broken, and retested, the sell will be confirmed. I am already in the trade prior to the break of the support but will add more positions once support is broken.
3. The trendline has been touched 3 times already therefore it's a weak trendline = the market will break it and start attacking the lows
4. Although the sell seems to be a long-term trade, it does not mean you should wait for the entire trade to play out. If you smile withe profits you see, close your trades.
5. Remember, the market is not our friend, it is full of manipulation. Close trades when you happy. Good luck.
US30 Trade Update – 06/06/2025 🚨 US30 Trade Update – 06/06/2025 🚨
📊 Market Structure & Key Levels
US30 is respecting higher support at 42,248, forming a tighter range just below 42,605 resistance. Price is hovering around 42,475, coiling up for a potential breakout. Watch closely! 🔍
✅ Key Observations:
Holding above 42,248 support
Resistance zones: 42,562 → 42,605
EMA structure bullish but stalling at highs
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔹 Long Setup:
Buy breakout above 42,605
→ Targets: 42,900 – 43,050+
🔻 Short Setup:
Breakdown below 42,248 → Confirm with 15m close
→ Targets: 41,947 – 41,894
⚠️ Price coiling under resistance – breakout incoming. Be patient, don’t chase!
US30 Trade Update – 06/05/2025🚨 US30 Trade Update – 06/05/2025 🚨
📊 Market Structure & Key Levels
US30 continues to respect bullish structure, trading above the 42,400 zone and reclaiming strength after consolidating around key support levels. Buyers are holding control with price now at 42,480+.
🔍 Key Observations:
✅ Still holding above 41,947 structure zone
✅ Higher lows intact – bullish continuation likely
🔼 Resistance in focus: 42,700 → 42,900
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔹 Long Setup:
Buy on pullbacks to 42,300–42,400
→ Target: 42,700 – 42,900
🔻 Short Setup:
Only valid on break & close below 41,947
→ Target: 41,261 – 40,983
⚠️ Trend remains bullish – follow momentum but watch for exhaustion near resistance!