Next up Nasdaq = US100 buy continues.if the correction wave ended at 0.5 fibo level which is current dip next target is new high. in shorter time timezones first targets are 19900 - 20250 - 22300
USATEC trade ideas
Nasdaq 100 - Bull trap print begins circa April 30thThe Nasdaq 100 index is seriously oversold as market participants are gripped by fear. Understandable… however, markets do not crash in fear. Instead the opposite happens, counterintuitive as that sounds.
The Index shall continue display volatility until sellers are exhausted, which is around April 30th when the bottom shall print. So yeah, this week is probably going to suck what life remains of your account. However selling now is not in your best interest, I would argue the opposite. Let me explain why.
On the above daily chart the Nasdaq 100 death cross approaches, forecast to print on April 30th (the dotted lines). The death cross (On the Nasdaq 100 only) is defined as the 65 day Simple Moving average (blue line) crossing down the 240-day SMA with price action under the 240-day SMA.
Now the date has been changing a lot with recent volatility, to counter that behaviour the forecast for the cross uses the "Box Jenkins" forecast method (Ww is a data scientist and engineer specialising in probability theory and stochastic processes, will be adding the tool to my collection of scripts shortly!). Read more about Box Jenkins method here:
www.investopedia.com
Now I’m not normally a fan of moving averages, but on "looking left"… you’ll find me on the front row seat. I tell you all that to tell you this, look left. Look left at past death crosses using this method:
17% rally from death cross on March 15th, 2022
22% rally from death cross on December 18th, 2018
17% rally from death cross on February 16th, 2016
You get the picture. This behaviour continues to repeat with the previous ten death crosses until the print on October 12th, 2000, where the bull trap was followed by a market crash of 80%.
In terms of probability there is a 90% chance the death cross shall result in a positive rally. However, it is my guess many readers will place more weight on the 10% chance of a crash. That’s emotion, not reason! In fact if you scan over many of the published ideas on tradingview you'll notice the bearish slant is strong.
Is this time is different?
=====================
There are no certainties, only probabilities. Price action could continue selling off following the cross to reach new lows. That said, this idea is to forecast a bull trap, not a continuation in the market uptrend. The probability favouring a rally is incredibly high. After that, not so good. Not good at all.
Price action forecast on rally
=======================
Approximately 19.2 to 19.5k
Conclusions
=====================
The market is oversold as emotions run high. History tells us It is unlikely the correction ramps up in momentum after the cross prints. However the cross can indicate the index may be about to enter a bear market should price action reject the 50-day SMA, which it is very likely. That’s for the next post!
Ww
next week or two weeks NQ vision as u see in the chart nothing special we need to reach the first high Buyside LQ
then pull back to the last low as second target sellside LQ
note that
any question feel free
NASDAQ: 50% probability that this Golden Cross is bearish.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.920, MACD = 61.810, ADX = 33.031) as it continues its recovery from the Low of the previous month. In the meantime, it formed a 4H Golden Cross, the first since January 23rd. Even though this is a bullish pattern theoretically, it often doesn't deliver an immediate rise. More specifically, since the October 2022 market bottom, Nasdaq has had another 10 Golden Crosses on the 4H timeframe. The interesting statistic is that 5 have extended their rallies but the other 5 cuased a pullback (short or medium term). Consequently we call for caution in the next 2 weeks, as the market may correct towards the 4H MA200 before it resumes the long term uptrend.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Long - Day Trades 1:2X2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Long for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
Nasdaq LongsThe setup is self explanatory. If price is to retrace to the marked levels I will take longs, The details are in the charts...If price does not retrace, I will improvise
Nasdaq LongsShould price retrace to that IFVG level, I will look for a sell side liquidity sweep and go long.
Descending Triangle Formation with Bullish Breakout Potential The NASDAQ (US100) is currently forming a descending triangle pattern with a clear A-B-C-D-E wave structure, signaling price compression and consolidation.
🔍 Key Insights:
The previous move was strongly bullish, increasing the probability of a continuation after consolidation.
A potential breakout above the descending trendline (blue resistance) could trigger a sharp upward move.
Target zones:
✅ First target: 20,060.6
✅ Second target: 20,573.9
Key support zone: 19,524.7 – this area acted as a launchpad for the previous bullish impulse and confirms the base of the triangle.
🧠 Suggested Strategy:
Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume. Look for entries on a pullback toward the 19,811.1 zone – ideally with a bullish continuation candle.
📊 Additional Context:
These types of consolidation patterns often lead to explosive moves. Patience and risk management will be crucial here.
NQ: NFP day!Good day!
Yesterday candle was bearish, Is it the end of the upper move?
All will depend on today's data and rumors from WH.
1- Undershoot data: Very bad for equities and NQ starts its Wave 3. But keep in mind, an undershoot also means FED will cut and free money will be on the table which is positive equities.
2- Inline: Bad for equities as FED rate cut and free money chances will decrease. In this case, price might continue its consolidation.
3- Overshoot: Good for equities and NQ might reach 21000. In this scenario, Fed rate cut will be out from June meeting.
Regarding WH rumors, it seems tariffs deals are imminent or underway. I already mentioned here few times that the 90-day pause will become an eternity pause. This seems a major change. But in my view it won't be a sustainable or durable change as all countries lost confidence in US.
Until the rumor becomes a fact, I maintain the same plan for ST/MT/LT: Sell.
GL!
NAS - Move to the downsideTechnicals, trend and price-action is hinting towards a drop on NAS, that needs to respect 19478. I'm earmarking a 'loaded' push from there to 19571 and then conclude for the week.
Happy trading!
US100US100 has shown great strength after terrif news.
If we look at the bigger picture, recent bullish rally looks like a pull back. Currently it is heading towards very important region , 20500 which is also the 61% retracement level.
If the price close above 20500 then we can consider it a new bullish rally.
NAS100... 4h chat pattern Your NAS100 (Nasdaq-100 index) *sell setup* looks like this:
* *Entry (Sell):* 1983
* *1st Target (TP1):* 1845
* *2nd Target (TP2):* 1800
This is a *bearish trade, targeting a roughly **138-point* drop for TP1 and *183-point* drop for TP2.
To evaluate this trade, consider the following:
### 1. *Technical Context*
* Is there a *resistance level* or *reversal pattern* around 1983?
* Are *momentum indicators* like RSI or MACD showing bearish divergence?
* What does the *volume* say — decreasing on up moves, increasing on down moves?
### 2. *Risk Management*
* Where is your *stop loss*? (This is critical to protect against a reversal.)
* What's the *risk-to-reward ratio*? Ideally, aim for 1:2 or better.
* Are you risking a fixed % of your capital (e.g., 1–2%)
NAS100USD: Price Respects Bearish Structure at 62% FibGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe sustained bearish institutional order flow, and we aim to align with this directional bias by identifying high-probability selling opportunities.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
1. Retracement into Premium Resistance:
Price has recently retraced into premium pricing levels, reaching the 62% Fibonacci retracement zone—a level that often acts as dynamic resistance. This retracement also aligned with a bearish breaker block, confirming institutional resistance at that level. The market has since shown signs of rejection, reinforcing the bearish narrative.
2. Emergence of Fair Value Gap (FVG) as a Key Resistance Array:
Following the rejection, a new FVG has formed, acting as a potential short-term resistance zone. This area provides a refined point of interest where institutions may look to re-engage in selling activity. The alignment of the FVG with previous resistance adds further confluence to the bearish setup.
TRADING PLAN:
We will monitor the newly formed FVG zone for signs of bearish confirmation. Upon confirmation, the plan is to execute short positions targeting liquidity pools in discounted price zones, in line with institutional price delivery patterns.
Remain focused, wait for confirmation, and make sure this idea aligns with your overall trading plan.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NASDAQ Buy idea🔸 Structure Breakout → Pullback → Consolidation beneath resistance
🔸 Support Zone Multiple rejections from 19,370–19,385 demand zone
🔸 Liquidity Stops likely resting above 19,420 → potential fuel for breakout move
🔸 Candle Behavior Strong rejection candles from demand zone + no bearish follow-through
🔸 Momentum Price failing to make lower lows → bullish pressure building
NAS100 Breakdown Watch: Bearish Structure Forms Below Key Highs1. Key Levels
Yesterday’s High: 20,037.0
Yesterday’s Low: 19,658.8
Today’s High (so far): 19,912.4
Current Price: 19,844.4
Price is currently trading below today’s high and below yesterday’s high, but still well above yesterday’s low.
2. Structure & Market Flow
The BoS/ChoCh (Break of Structure / Change of Character) indicator marks:
Multiple BoS (green) up to the April 30th peak, showing bullish structure.
A ChoCh (red) occurred just after the top on April 30, followed by more ChoCh signals, indicating potential short-term bearish momentum.
Most recent price action shows consolidation between 19,840–19,912, forming a range after rejecting near today's high.
3. Moving Averages (3EMA)
Blue Line (Short EMA - 20): 19,843.0
Purple Line (Mid EMA - 50): 19,840.3
Price is slightly above both the 20 and 50 EMA, which are now flattening — suggesting neutral momentum with no strong trend currently in place.
4. Market Context / Price Action
The sharp rejection at 20,037 (yesterday's high) indicates supply pressure.
Price wicked above today’s high before dropping below both EMAs.
Price bounced around the 50 EMA and appears to be forming lower highs, showing bearish microstructure.
Current structure looks like a potential distribution pattern.
5. Trade Ideas (Scenarios)
A. Bearish Bias (High Probability if 19,840 breaks cleanly)
Entry: Break and close below 19,840 with volume confirmation.
TP1: 19,700 (just above yesterday’s low)
TP2: 19,658.8 (yesterday’s low)
SL: Above 19,912 (today’s high)
This setup capitalizes on a rejection of key highs, a ChoCh confirmation, and fading bullish momentum.
B. Bullish Scenario (Only if we reclaim today’s high)
Entry: Strong 15-min candle close above 19,912, targeting 20,037 and beyond.
TP1: 20,037 (yesterday’s high)
TP2: 20,100–20,150 (psychological and recent rejection zone)
SL: Below 19,840
This would be a breakout-retest continuation trade, but less favorable given current structure.
6. Bias & Recommendation
Short Bias is currently favored due to:
Repeated ChoCh signals
Price trading below today's high and rejecting yesterday’s high
Weak upside follow-through despite attempts to push higher
Tight consolidation and lower highs forming near resistance
NASDAQ Sell idea🔸 Resistance Strong supply zone around 19,419.5–19,430 (previous high & breakout failure)
🔸 Bearish Structure If price fails to break and hold above 19,430, double top or lower high forms
🔸 Wick Rejection Multiple upper wicks near resistance could signal rejection and exhaustion
🔸 Volume Behavior Potential volume spike without follow-through → trap buyers
🔸 Momentum Divergence If momentum slows on retest of high, weakening bullish pressure
NAS100 – Supply Zone Rejection! Are Tech Bulls Out of Breath?Timeframe: 4H | Methodology: Supply & Demand + Structure
The NASDAQ 100 (US100) is struggling to break above the key supply zone around 19,832. Price has printed multiple wicks at resistance, hinting at weakening bullish momentum.
Technical Breakdown:
Major Supply Zone: 19,800 – 19,850
Critical Support Level: 18,846
Demand Zone Target: 17,700 – 18,000 (highlighted in orange)
Key Observations:
Price has rallied into supply after a strong bullish move from the 18,000s
Repeated rejection candles are forming inside the supply zone
Bearish divergence may be developing — a possible early reversal signal
Trade Setup Idea: (Bearish Bias)
Sell Trigger: Break below 19,700
Target Range: 18,850 first, then 18,000
Stop Loss: Above 19,850
Macro Note:
Several U.S. economic events are lined up (see calendar icons). Expect high volatility — perfect environment for trap moves and liquidity grabs.
Will NAS100 reverse from this zone or break out to new highs? Let me know your view!
Like & follow for more clean chart breakdowns.
#NAS100 #NASDAQ #USTech #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #ReversalSetup #TradingView
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Time for Pullback
There is a high chance that US100 will retrace from the underlined
blue daily resistance.
I spotted a double top pattern on a 4h time frame after its test
and a nice bearish imbalance candle that was formed
during the NY session yesterday as confirmations.
Goal - 19590
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Nas100 Diamond BottomAt the 16400 gap down the play was simple, buy, fill the gap and bullish engulf this puppy.
So it happened, and the 10 percent pump is the middle of the diamond. Then what was left to be bullish on the final retraces onto the right side of the diamond.
Now we are in. I expect exponentiaal growth, but first target is the magic average plotted on this chart.
Good luck and remember, no guarantees. I play the chart and trust it, but if it backfires thats my risk im willing to take.
NAS Targets 21,720- 21,800 Makers holding this thing up...Long for next 2 weeks then, mid May after options expirations... very cautious. 21,720- 21,800 is pivot where one might want to consider taking profits or trying shorts, sfterwards market could go anywhere
Trendline break out NAS100## Entry
- Enter on 4H confirmed trendline breakout
- Look for retest of broken trendline as support
- Ensure price remains above key MAs on 4H
- Verify with increased volume on breakout
## Risk
- Stop below recent swing low/structure
- Risk 1-2% capital
- Size position accordingly
## Targets
1. 20000- 20200 as psychological level
2. 200 MA on daily timeframe
3. 1.5x risk-reward ratio
## Management
- Wait for clean 4H breakout confirmation
- Move stop to breakeven after momentum continues
- Trail stop as price advances toward targets
- Scale out at major resistance levels
NAS100: Buyers Stepping InSeems like the bearish move is over, market showing signs of a potential shift. Rising volume and buyer activity suggest a possible bullish move or relief rally
