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US Tech 100 Cash Index

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All Time Highs on the Horizon!!!Price is on a Bullish Up trend In a Current Retracement. This Thesis uses several different concepts. Based off of Market structure, support & resistance, RSI Divergence, Fib lvl's, ICT Concepts, Daily: Bullish, Price is Rejecting Bullish TL and Testing structure , 61.8 prz (Daily Breaker Block forming) H4: Bullish, Morning star R Pattern at H4 lvl H1: Bearish (Wait for price action to return Bullish before entering) Thesis: Looking for price to bullish break H4 lvl to order block and retest back to daily lvl 20595 / previous structure high zone, for bullish entry. Notes: price has a overall retracement 61.8 prz Price rejecting off bullish Trend line Price rejecting 4H FVG H4 Hidden Bullish Divergence Daily Bullish Breaker Block Cons: -4H could be a Head and shoulders Pattern if price rejects and doesn't break through Daily lvl 20595 Wait for H1 Time frame and Execution time frames to line up with macro Bullish Trend before Executing! TP1: 21,150 TP2: 21,468 (ATH) TP3: 22,242 Stretch Goal (ATH)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by brianfj
29
NASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index continues to capture investor interest, buoyed by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory, economic, and geopolitical hurdles. The latest macroeconomic updates and Federal Reserve signals add further dimensions to the narrative shaping the index’s performance. Here’s an expanded analysis, incorporating fresh data and insights. --- Key Macroeconomic Updates Influencing NASDAQ Inflation and Sentiment - University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.6%) This slight increase in inflation expectations signals that consumer inflation concerns remain elevated, despite Federal Reserve efforts. Persistent inflationary pressure could temper optimism around rate cuts. - University of Michigan Sentiment Index: Actual 74.0 (Forecast 73.2, Previous 71.8) The stronger-than-expected sentiment reading reflects consumer confidence in economic resilience, which could support continued spending on technology and digital services, bolstering the NASDAQ index. Labor Market Insights - US Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%) A modest uptick in the unemployment rate suggests a cooling labor market, potentially reinforcing the case for monetary easing. - US Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 227k (Forecast 220k, Previous 12k, Revised 36k) Strong job growth underscores economic stability but adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's inflation battle. - US Average Earnings YoY: Actual 4.0% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 4.0%) Wage growth remains steady, indicating ongoing consumer spending power but also signaling potential inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Fed's Bowman: Progress on inflation seems to have stalled. This commentary reinforces market expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to counter economic headwinds. - Short-Term Interest Rate Futures: A sharp rise post-jobs report indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 67%. Lower borrowing costs would directly benefit the tech-heavy NASDAQ, as growth stocks typically outperform in low-rate environments. --- Seasonal and Sentiment Factors Historical Seasonality December has historically been favorable for the NASDAQ, driven by: - **Seasonal Consumer Spending:** Electronics and digital services see a surge, supporting revenue for tech companies. - **Portfolio Rebalancing:** Institutional investors often position portfolios for growth into the new year. - **Optimism Around Innovation:** End-of-year announcements and advancements in technology further fuel investor enthusiasm. Investor Sentiment - The **Fear & Greed Index** remains at 55, leaning toward greed, signaling potential for continued short-term market gains. --- Revised NASDAQ Outlook Positives: 1. **Tech Momentum:** The AI-driven rally continues, with companies like Microsoft and Meta capitalizing on innovation and demand. 2. **Federal Reserve Support:** Increasing odds of rate cuts and gradual disinflation expectations create a favorable macro backdrop. 3. **Resilient Economic Indicators:** Strong labor market and durable goods data point to economic stability. Risks: 1. **Regulatory Headwinds:** Scrutiny over AI and antitrust issues may weigh on tech giants like Microsoft and Meta. 2. **Inflation Uncertainty:** Stalled progress on disinflation could delay aggressive monetary easing. 3. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing global supply chain disruptions pose risks to the tech sector. Conclusion The NASDAQ index is well-positioned to close the year on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand for technology, favorable monetary conditions, and consumer confidence. However, vigilance is essential as regulatory, geopolitical, and inflation-related risks remain prevalent. Key developments, including Federal Reserve decisions and corporate earnings, will be pivotal in shaping the index's trajectory into 2024.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
Why I Took a Short Position on the US100(high risk)Even though I typically avoid shorting indices, especially in the current macroeconomic environment characterized by a resilient labor market and increasing likelihood of a soft landing, my trading decisions are heavily rooted in technical analysis. While the broader economic context leans towards stability, the charts presented a setup that I found compelling enough to take the risk. The position, admittedly, is high-risk, with a significant probability of hitting my stop-loss. However, I believe that the potential reward justifies the calculated risk, given the structure on the chart. If the stop is triggered but the broader technical context remains unchanged, I am prepared to re-enter the position and risk an additional 2-3 stops. My approach relies on consistency and discipline, so as long as the technical indicators and levels I evaluate continue to align, I am comfortable with this risk. This trade is more of a strategic decision than a fundamental one. It’s driven by my confidence in the patterns and levels I see, not a bet against the underlying strength of the index or economy. It's a reminder that, sometimes, even in favorable macroeconomic conditions, the charts can tell a different story worth exploring.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by jangis1408
1
NAS100USD Will Go Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100USD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 21,415.8. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 21,013.5 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SignalProvider
1
NAS100USD / TRADING UNDER ATH PRICES AROUND 21,520 / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Breaking the supply zone is expected to lead to an increase in prices, potentially reaching a new all-time high (ATH) , The current price is trading below the ATH level at 21,512. If the price remains and stabilizes below 21,512, it is expected to decline further , The first expected demand zone is between 21,226 and 21,107 , If the price closes a 4-hour candle below this zone, it is anticipated to decline to the next demand zone between 20,863 and 20,762. If the ATH level (21,512) is broken, prices are expected to rise and reach a new historical zone between 21,520 and 21,890. As long as the price remains below the ATH, the market is expected to face downward pressure.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by ArinaKarayi
2
USNAS100 / Downside Momentum Amid Jobs ReportsTechnical Analysis The price reversed from its ATH, which is 21530, and now has a bearish momentum due to the high pressure from NFP and Unemployment rata reports, So as long as trades below 21465 and 21530, there will be a bearish trend to touch 21290 and 21220. To be bullish till 21670, should close at least 1h candle above 21530 Key Levels: Pivot Point: 21465 Resistance Levels: 21540, 21670, 21800 Support Levels: 21290, 21150, 20990 Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum within News effect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
Short Term Update: US 100 Index in Focus Over Non-Farm Payrolls Growth stocks within the US 100 index have sprung back into life this week, after a period of under performance, when compared to industrials and small cap stocks. The US 100 has added around 3% over the previous 4 trading days, supported by a rally in megacap stocks, led by Nvidia, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talked positively about the current state of the US economy in a discussion on Wednesday evening. This view has so far been supported by data readings across the week. Now, with US Non-farm Payrolls due for release this afternoon at 13.30, all eyes are on whether this eagerly awaited reading will show a labour market that reflects a strong economy, while still allowing the Fed to cut interest rates again on December 18th. Ahead of US Employment Data: Technical Update As the dust settled on the US 100’s sharp acceleration into the November 11th all-time high, as it was at that time, following the Trump victory in the US election, a correction materialised, as a reaction to over-extended upside extremes. However, this decline proved to be limited in nature, and buyers were found again around 20309, the November 19th low. Importantly, this also tested the uptrend in price activity evident since August 5th lows, suggesting it may well continue to be a relevant support moving forward. As we approach what is likely to be the next important market sentiment driver in the shape of the latest payrolls data, price strength has again materialised from the uptrend support, to post new all-time highs at 21512 on December 4th. While the uptrend, currently at 20849 within today’s price activity, has been confirmed as a possible support focus, equally important is today’s potential resistance level, standing at 21687. This is the upper trendline connecting the highs dating back to August 1st. So, the levels we may want to watch over the data release are in place, and while it is important to note that closing breaks of these are no guarantee of future price movement, a confirmed breach of support or resistance may result in further price movement in the direction of the break, but this is very much dependant of future price trends. What are potential resistance levels if 21687 gives way on a closing basis? Closes above the 21687 trendline resistance would again see new all-time highs posted, so, we can then turn to Fibonacci extension levels to help provide areas of interest where there may be potential for sellers to be encountered. Using the July 11th to August 5th last sell-off as the measure, the 38.2% extension stands at 22151, and 61.8% point at 23010. Just because trendline resistance breaks have in the past resulted in further price strength is no guarantee it will do so again, but if strength does develop after payrolls and 21687 is breached, these levels could be areas where upside momentum may slow, or even be held. And Supports? As we have said earlier, the 20849 uptrend is potentially the first support focus within any negative reaction to the data and closing breaks maybe the catalyst for further price declines. If such moves do materialise, it's possible it may trigger further price weakness, with the 20309 November 19th low next possible support. If this in turn gives way, it might prompt tests of 19887/19904 support, a combination of November 4th session low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August/December strength. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
1-hr NASDAQ 100: The Leading Tech Index Might Correct In 5 business days US100 jumped with more than 600 points. We use patterns like the Golden Cross, where a short term MA breaks above a longer term MA, to determine the strenght and the direction of the momentum. The classic buy signal, triggered by the Golden Cross, emerged last week and since then buyers in the NASDAQ generated fantastic profits! For the past few hours today however, we notice a possible slow down in the upward momentum. This is only normal, because many of these buyers are going to start selling, to take profit, after the rally. We use Fibonacci to establish where the price might correct to and we usually focus on the critical levels 38% Fib and 50% Fib. Tech stocks are hot, rates are dropping and on the long run it is very possible that the index will continue its upward march. On the short term however, its absolutely normal to see some pullbacks. We assume that buyers could secure better risk to reward on their trades, if they target a lower entry, possibly at 21 250, which aligns with the important 38% Fibonacci retracement. This also opens the room to short sellers, who wish to bet on a short term drop and take this level as a potential profit taking zone.
SKILLING:US100Short
by Trendsharks
NAS100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 While the NAS100 has maintained a bullish trend, recent price action shows signs of consolidation within a sideways range. Historically, price has often retraced significantly following strong rallies—could we be on the brink of another pullback? In this video, we delve into the trend, price action, market structure, and a potential trade setup. Disclaimer:* Trading carries significant risk, and market conditions can shift rapidly. This video is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. 📊✅
THINKMARKETS:NAS100Short
by fxtraderanthony
7
Liquidity Crisis may happen Janet Yellen(jesus) + 12 hedgefund(12 apostles) Liquidity Crisis may happen (i expected it first quarter of this year, but..) most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan(2009~2019) so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral so t-bill market happend this method t-bills yield go dig in diggg ( infinity purchasing from 12 apostles ) however t-bond yield go higher and lower and higher ( normal purchasing ) NOW 12 apostles got a trillion profit. and that was all of liqudity for ndq 21000 this liquidity is economic's tightrope walking on the twin bridge Yellen just 2 month left WHO IS YUDAH WHO IS PETER IF I WAS YOU BUY PUT FEB CHEERS
TVC:NDQShort
by newjeansoldjean
NASDAQ: Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ: Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index remains a focal point for investors, driven by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory hurdles and mixed economic data. Here's a closer look at the factors shaping the index's performance and its outlook for the coming weeks. --- Key Factors Driving NASDAQ Tech Rally and AI Optimism NASDAQ has seen robust gains, fueled by the dominance of tech stocks. Investors continue to bet on the long-term potential of AI, boosting companies like Microsoft and Meta. However, Microsoft faces regulatory scrutiny from the FTC over its AI software sales, which could weigh on short-term performance. Meanwhile, Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is adapting its strategies to align with the evolving political landscape, including engagement with the Trump administration's policies. Strong Corporate Performance - Salesforce reported Q3 revenue of $9.44 billion, exceeding expectations, though adjusted EPS disappointed. - Microsoft and other tech giants continue to invest heavily in AI, supporting long-term investor optimism. Despite some challenges, the technology sector remains a key growth driver for NASDAQ, supported by innovation and strong demand for digital products and services. --- Macroeconomic Data and NASDAQ Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy - ISM Services PMI fell to 52.1, below expectations of 55.7, indicating slower growth in the service sector, a key driver of consumer demand for technology. - Durable goods orders rose 0.3%, meeting expectations and signaling economic stability. - Construction spending increased by 0.4%, reflecting robust investment activity. While these figures present a mixed picture, stability in other areas, such as the labor market (JOLTS job openings at 7.744 million in October), provides a solid foundation for the market. Federal Reserve Policy and Its Impact on Technology The Federal Reserve is slowly pivoting toward a more dovish stance. An anticipated rate cut in December, currently priced at a 74% likelihood, could benefit technology stocks, which are sensitive to borrowing costs. The Fed forecasts gradual disinflation toward a 2% target by 2025, potentially creating favorable conditions for the tech sector in the long term. --- Seasonality and NASDAQ December has historically been a strong month for tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ, driven by: - Seasonal consumer spending, particularly on electronics and digital services. - End-of-year portfolio rebalancing by investors. - Optimism surrounding technological advancements and innovations. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at 56, indicates a sentiment skewed toward greed, often a precursor to further short-term market gains. --- NASDAQ Outlook: Technology at the Forefront As a leader in the technology space, NASDAQ has strong fundamentals to end the year on a high note. Robust demand for AI-related technologies, stable economic data, and Federal Reserve support create a positive backdrop for the index. However, investors must remain cautious about potential risks, including: - Regulatory challenges for tech giants. - Geopolitical tensions impacting global supply chains. - Uneven progress in disinflation, which could prolong restrictive monetary policies. With optimism surrounding technology and potential monetary easing, NASDAQ remains an attractive choice for long-term investors. However, key events such as quarterly earnings and further Federal Reserve decisions will significantly influence the index's trajectory. For now, the tech rally seems well-supported, but vigilance is essential.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
US 100 Trade LogUS 100 Buy SIgnals Two potential long opportunities have been identified, but caution is advised due to the possibility of stop runs. The market could easily disrupt both trades, so this requires close observation and adherence to the system. Discretionary judgment will play a role here, but the focus remains on structured analysis. Trade Setup : 1. Entry Zones : Buy within the 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) or the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG). 2. Risk Parameters : - First Position: 0.5% risk - Second Position: 1% risk 3. Stop-Loss Size : Fixed at 90 points for both trades. 4. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) : 1:2 for both positions. 5. Caution : Be wary of potential stop hunts in these volatile zones. Monitor closely for signs of market manipulation or sudden reversals. I am also weary of the strong divergences on both the MACD and the CVD. So be careful with risk assessment today.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera