NQ DAILY BEARISHtill holding on to my Bearish bias but we are ranging on the 4HR TF expecting 10am Candle to take us lower with 5 minute confirimation
USATEC trade ideas
NAS100 BULLISH- I'm focusing on that 15mins +OB.
- I also want us to Tag That midnight Opening Price.
- if i don't get anything by then I'll be hunting silver bullets.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 12 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None, CPI on Wednesday
News - None
Directional bias - I stick with a BUY as I view the red candles on the bigger TF as a retracement rather than a change of market sentiment. I would need a bit more price action evidence to be convinced that we are in a bear market....up until then, I continue to look for buys in what I see as a bull market.
Morning analysis:
M TF - very bullish, candle is 11'000 pips strong at time of writing (Tuesday morning). Still 17 days to go until candle close but definitely indicative of strong bull sentiment overall
W TF - week candle has turned red (at time of writing on Tuesday morning), indicating that price is in an area where bears have stepped into play. Need to be careful and need good confirmation for entering a buy, as bears may still push for a further retracement. Time to whip out sell fibs on the smaller time frames and start analysing those too to understand if price is respecting these sell levels and sell TP points. This does not mean I waiver from my directional bias as a buy, but it helps me set buy TP's (possibly at strong sell fib levels) and understand bearish price action.
D TF - D TF shows price stalling at this zone. We have a doji candle from Friday and a red (colour change) candle from Monday. If bears do push for a lager TF retracement, then it can be expected that price will move down significantly, as the D and W 0.382 fib level is 3'800 pips down.
4H TF - price seems be to struggling to break the 0.50 sell fib level (4H candles are failing to close above this level at C, D, E and F on the chart). Long wick candles are forming with wicks sticking out the top, indicating that bulls are trying to push higher but bears are successfully pushing back down at the 0.50 SELL fib level and the 0.618 SELL fib level. Looking at the line chart, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, with a neckline slanted upwards (indicated in blue lines). If bears break this neckline downwards, the price could move down and test the 4H EMA. The blue vertical line represents the distance that price would most probably move down if the neckline is broken (price usually moves the same distance as the height of the market pattern). Buy fib in the morning was drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.
1H - Monday and Tuesday's pivot points are close to each other. This indicates that price is in a strong area of S&R. It remains to be seen if this zone will act as a support for a push up, or resistance for a push down.
As the morning progressed, a falling wedge started forming on the 1H TF, as marked by the torquoise lines.
Falling wedge pattern usually breaks upward, but can break in either direction.
Due to strong bearish presence, I decided to only enter if the 1H TF gave a signal. 1H TF is pretty strong on Nasdaq and I would manage my risk this way.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Trend - a buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. I prefer trading with the trend as “the trend is your friend”.
2. S&R - price broke the pivot point + EMA with a good momentum candle.
3. Market pattern - a falling wedge pattern had formed which broke upwards. The temporary downtrend line (the top line of the falling wedge was broken) indicating that the temp downtrend was over.
4. Fib - price was respecting the 4H BUY 0.382 fib level (written in purple) and price finally broke the 0.50 SELL fib level
For me all of this was strong confirmation that buyers had stepped in and that price was ready to move up.
Mental SL placed below the lowest candle wick below the falling wedge, as indicated by the pink line.
Unfortunately for me, price moved straight back down and I closed in my stop loss area when candles started closing below my pink line.
Took a loss of 568 pips. Not too bad pip wise, but because I felt the confirmations were solid, I entered with a full position size.
After that I was out for the day, as I "felt" (intuition that comes with LOTS of screen time) Nas wasn't moving as it normally does.
What could I have done differently?
Some part of me puts this loss to variance i.e. sometimes price will do what it wants and move against you no matter how good confirmations were.
But another part of me recognises that the green candle I entered on (at the hand icon), closed at exactly the same price point as the green candle under B.
From B. you can see that price moved down significantly from this point. So I basically entered a buy at resistance. I should have waited for the next 5min or 15min candle close to be sure that the resistance would not push price back down again (which is exactly what happened).
I won't be trading CPI, I feel that in high impact news, I am not able to stack the odds in my favour.
So hope you did better than me, good luck with CPI and catch you tomorrow! :)
P.S. #NasdaqNerd - don't you think its so cool how price really did move down to the profit target (end of blue vertical line)! It happens so regularly that price respects market pattern profit targets so perfectly :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NAS100 UPDATE - Possible Target20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
Your interest motivates me:
If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service.
How I see it:
If the black trend resistance is broken and held to the upside,
a surprise reversal might be in play.
CPI Data can be tricky, especially now.
If structure holds under the trend resistance, consecutive lower lows will
ensure completion of the structure (H&S) = Nice correction (SHORT)
POSSIBLE TARGET: 20700 - 20600
The most important to consider always, before you leap:
When you jump in the river, make sure you are swimming "WITH" the current!!
KEYNOTE:
Never trade the actual data release, wait for your confirmations afterwards...!
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
NAS100 Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,056.31.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 20,692.20 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NASDAQ Outlook: Critical Levels to Confirm Bullish or BearishTechnically:
The price dropped from their ATH as we anticipated yesterday,
Today should break 21070 by closing 4h candle under it, to be bearish till 20790
Otherwise closing 4h or 1h candle above 21260 will be bullish toward 21350 and 21580
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21070
Resistance Levels: 21260, 21350, 21490
Support Levels: 20900, 20790, 20700
Trend:
- Bullish above 21260
- Bearish Below 21070
- Consolidation between 21070 - 21260
Nasdaq_1DThe Nasdaq index is in an upward trend and currently due to changing the channel and entering the 20000 channel, it can bring good profits for the buyer.
The type of trading positions is from buying to selling.
Support in terms of the price action level of 20,000
Target 23200
NASD100USD / TRADING BELOW ATH PRICES / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Price Action , The Nasdaq has reached a historical peak (ATH) around 21,250, Prices are showing signs of a potential decline after hitting this high, suggesting a possible retracement.
ATH Resistance (21,250): If prices stabilize below this level, it signals a likely bearish trend.
Demand Zone (20,906 - 20,781): This is the first support area where buyers may re-enter. If prices reach here and hold, it could signal consolidation or a potential bounce.
FVG Zone (20,482 - 20,324): A further decline to this fair value gap would confirm a downtrend, indicating bearish pressure. Breaking this level would suggest a more substantial downturn.
If the Nasdaq breaks below the FVG, it’s expected to target the next demand zone between 20,074 and 19,916, which represents a significant support range for a potential bounce or further drop.
If prices stabilize above the FVG zone (20,482 - 20,324), this could indicate potential for a rally back towards the ATH at 21,250, as buyers maintain control in this range.
Idea for Target 1 NAS100 Trade flow for NAS100,
NAS100 seems exhausted at the moment, and i expect a crash sooner or later.. Feel free to ask me any further detailed questions regarding this trade idea.
Nasdaq (NQ)- Potential Downtrend in FocusNasdaq (NQ) is showing signs of a potential shift toward a downtrend. An ideal setup would involve a confirmed price acceptance below the identified zone, followed by a retest of this sell zone before moving lower. A confirmation at this level could signal a strong sell opportunity. This outlook represents a scalping/intraday trade perspective.
Disclaimer,
This is not a financial advice or any sort of that, this is purely for informational purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice.
Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every one.
Bearish drop off 161.8% Fibonacci extension?NAS100 has reacted off the resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 21,161.95
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 21,371.18
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 20,692.20
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Nasdaq Insights: 13-NOV-2024Good morning! Join me for today's Nasdaq market analysis. Share your charts, ask questions, and let's discuss trading strategies.
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Up up up.. - BUT.. . Thanks to Trump's election, the danger that NSD will take aim at aprox 19,700 as feared has been averted for the time being. But be careful: Iranians have clearly threatened to retaliate vigorously after the US election. If that happens, the price could fall very sharply within hours. SL! ..and Short ready as well LOL ;)
Technical and digital analysisWe notice that we are in an upward correction and there is an increase in momentum. We are waiting for sellers to weaken in order to buy, Update idea Add note
NAS100 SELL 15 MINUTE TIMEFRAMESTRONG SUPPLY ZONE
Price has to feel the gap below
Multiple rejections on the top
Expecting a 5:1 reward, Let's see!
NAS100USD: Bearish Focus on Liquidity and Premium ReversalsGreetings Traders!
Brief Description🖊️:
Currently, I am observing bearish institutional order flow, so it’s essential to align with the market’s narrative. The market typically moves toward liquidity pools, or external range liquidity, before targeting internal range liquidity, where premium and discount zones—such as Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and order blocks—are found. In this case, price has reached a premium breaker block and retraced into the 62%-79% Fibonacci levels, which are strong zones to anticipate a reversal.
Things I Have Seen👀:
Liquidity Targeting💧: Price moves toward external range liquidity before reversing to internal liquidity zones.
Premium Entry Zone🟠: The recent price leg retraced to the 62%-79% Fibonacci levels within a premium range, ideal for a sell entry.
Targets:
Fair Value Price
Liquidity Pool (Sell Stops)
Trade Management:
Please note, I personally aim to capture a 3R return on each move and trade exclusively during the New York afternoon session. Once the session closes, I close my positions. While you may choose your own trade management approach, always prioritize proper risk management.
What's Important Now❗
Look for confirmation entries at the premium breaker block, but remember to conduct your own research to validate this setup before entering.
Best Regards,
The_Architect
NAS100 Market Update: Key Levels and ProjectionsThe Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is continuing its bullish run but is approaching critical resistance areas where a correction may occur. Here's a quick overview of key levels:
Strong Sell Zone: 22,233 - 21,052
Expect potential pullback as the index nears this resistance. This zone is likely to trigger a price correction, offering short-term selling opportunities.
Strong Buy Zone: Below 18,297
This major support level offers a favorable buying opportunity if the market pulls back. Buyers are expected to step in aggressively here, supporting the next bullish move.
Current Price: 20,338.7
NAS100 is approaching resistance after breaking above 19,600 support. Continued upward momentum is likely, but a correction could follow once resistance is tested.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: 22,233 - 21,052 (Strong Sell Zone), 20,800 - 20,600 (minor).
Support: 19,600 - 19,400, 18,800 - 18,600, 18,297 (Strong Buy Zone).
Outlook
A pullback is expected near 22,233, with support at 18,297 as a key level for the next bullish phase.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to boost this post if you agree with my analysis.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research before making any trading decisions.
I think we will be looking to go long on nasdaqI think nasdaq doesn't have that momentum to break below that support and we will be looking to go long
NAS100 afternoon updateBearish case for NAS100.
From October 2022 low, wave ((5)) would complete with contracting ending diagonal (wedge).
Wave ((3)) is 3.618 fib length of ((1)), and wave ((5)) is 1.618 fib length of ((1)).
Technically sound.
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