USATEC trade ideas
NASDAQ Is an August Low re-test inevitable?Nasdaq (NDX) got heavily rejected last week on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and almost reached on Friday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That was the level that was brutally breached on the August 05 Low, which only found Support on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and rebounded.
Technically those last two MA trend-lines are the long-term Buy Zone of the 2-year Channel Up that started after the October 13 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Based on the last two major Higher Lows of that pattern though, it is possible for the index to re-test that August Low as it happened both on December 28 2022 (re-test of the October 13 2022 Low) and September 27 2023 (re-test of the August 13 2023 Low). The latter in fact dived on a 3rd wave a little lower to test the 1D MA200, but this time, this condition has already been met (1D MA200 already tested).
This Low re-test tendency is also evident on the 1D RSI fractals among the Higher Lows sequences. If that scenario is materialized, it would give us both a big bullish and a big bearish development. From the bullish side, a 17300 re-test would form an exact Higher Low at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up, which is positive as it will fulfil a strong bullish condition to move forward. On the bearish side though, that would mean a breach of the 1W MA50, which technically would be very negative, unless the 1W candle that will break it, manages to close the week above it on a strong bounce.
Until then, lets initially see if the 1D MA200 holds (currently early in the day/ week it does) as if the price reverses here, we can technically have a bottom similar to October 26 2023. In any case, Nasdaq is just above the 1st long-term Buy Zone currently.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
US100 LONGUS100
LONG
PLEASE DON’T BE GREEDY
ENTRY POINT : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG POSITION
above red Line for SHORT POSITION
INSTRUCTIONS:
FOR risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
like, boost, be followers
PLEASE DON’T BE GREEDY
NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100 NASDAQ👀👉 The NAS100 has broken key structural support on the daily and 4-hour charts, signaling potential bearish momentum with the NASDAQ. I expect this downward move to extend towards previous lows, as highlighted on the chart. However, my approach is to wait for a bullish retracement early in the week, aiming to catch a reversal that confirms an entry for a short position.
It's important to note that this analysis is based on probabilities, not certainties. Always wait for price confirmation before executing any trades, as discussed in the accompanying video. The analysis provides a comprehensive overview of current price action, trend direction, and market structure. Keep in mind, this is for educational purposes only. Trading carries inherent risks, so make sure you have a solid risk management plan in place at all times. 📈✅
Nasdaq Thoughts 09-09-2024Happy New Week all, Kindly see my Nasdaq thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
NASDAQ for this coming week im seen short buys i have a setup here in this circled area, i will be selling once price here to take out the liquidity thats been left behind
US 100 NASDAQ Technical AnalysisUS100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis
When the US100 8-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue below the trend line. As long as the index price cannot pass the 19,096 level, it is evaluated that the price movements below the 18,621 level may break the 17,251 level and retreat to the 15,434 level.
short There are several reasons why NASDAQ 100 (US100) could potentially drop to the levels of 17750 and 17212, based on technical and fundamental analysis. Here's a breakdown:
1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The levels 17750 and 17212 could correspond to key Fibonacci retracement levels. When markets experience a sharp upward trend, they often retrace back to critical support levels.
A retracement to 17750 might indicate a 50% retracement, a common support level where markets consolidate or bounce after a pullback.
The 17212 level could represent a deeper retracement, potentially around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which is often seen as a strong support zone in technical analysis.
2. Technical Patterns:
Bearish patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, or broadening wedges could indicate further downward movement.
If 17750 represents a short-term support level and the market breaks below it, 17212 could be the next target, especially if market sentiment remains bearish.
3. MACD and RSI Signals:
If momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are signaling overbought conditions or have recently crossed bearish signals, this could suggest further downside.
A significant drop in RSI below 30 could indicate that the market is moving into oversold territory, but before it gets there, the price might test these lower support levels.
4. Fundamental Factors:
Rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve can have a negative impact on tech stocks, which dominate the NASDAQ 100. Higher borrowing costs hurt high-growth companies more significantly, as they rely heavily on cheap financing for expansion.
Additionally, inflationary pressures may force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, which could further depress growth-oriented stocks.
Any signs of economic slowdown or a looming recession could also weigh on NASDAQ 100, prompting further selling pressure and causing the index to drop to key technical support levels.
5. Market Sentiment and Valuation:
There has been growing concern over the valuation of tech stocks, especially those driven by the AI boom, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and others. If there’s a shift in sentiment or investors start to question these valuations, a broader correction in tech stocks could follow.
JPMorgan and other financial institutions have warned that the tech rally could be overextended, suggesting a potential bubble. If that bubble bursts, the NASDAQ 100 could see a significant correction.
6. Geopolitical Risks and External Factors:
Ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g., trade conflicts, energy crises, or conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war) could create risk-off sentiment in the market, leading investors to move away from riskier assets like NASDAQ 100 into safer havens like gold or bonds.
Supply chain disruptions in tech industries or tightening regulations could also negatively impact earnings growth and valuations, accelerating a move downward.
7. Previous Historical Support Levels:
17212 might correspond to a significant historical support level where the index previously found a bottom during past corrections or crises. If the market approaches this level again, it would likely act as strong support, but a breach could lead to further declines.
Summary
A drop to 17750 and potentially 17212 would likely be driven by a combination of technical retracement, weakening market sentiment, and fundamental pressures such as rising interest rates, a tech valuation correction, or broader economic concerns.
These levels could represent key support zones where the market either consolidates or rebounds, depending on the prevailing sentiment and external conditions.
Weekly Analyses and Recap: Will the bulls or bears prevail ??Sep 9 - 13 2024
Welcome Traders to another weekly analyses and recap post.
On Thursday Aug 22nd price signalled a Daily LH at 19,946.6 after which it began to sell. Price has been selling for 2 full weeks now where the Daily HL currently sits at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool. Week 3 will be the telltale if price will continue to signal a weekly HL or respect the Daily HL at the 61.8%.
Previously, when the weekly HL was completed on Aug 4th at 17,239.4 price had sold for 3 full weeks. By the end of Week 2 (July 21-28) the Daily HL was sitting at the 78.6% retracement level after which it made a bullish correction. However this correction was short lived because on Tuesday July 30th of Week 3, price respected a level of resistance at 19,236.6 and continued its downtrend breaking below the Daily HL of week 2. This was confirmation that price was not respecting the 78.6% retracement level and would continue to sell until the weekly HL was signalled.
History usually repeats itself and so using that knowledge, for this week I will be watching keenly to see whether price breaks below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday.
So last Friday Sep 6th, price made an indication - a new low or Daily HL at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool.
Price is currently making a bullish correction until it eventually reaches a level of resistance. This resistance level can potential be 19,111.7 - 19,236.6 where price previously respected.
Once price respects a resistance level, it will then make a new low which for me will be the indication on whether price wants to continue bearish for a third week or commence its uptrend. Understand that in any given trend, price must make a series of Highs and Lows but where these highs and lows fall relative to previous will be the indication of which type of trend the market is in.
For an uptrend, price must not break below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday which will act as a key support. Therefore, a HL will be the indication of a reversal to an uptrend.
For a downtrend, price must respect the resistance level from the previous week (19,111.7 - 19,236.6) and break below 18,310.5 at the close of the previous weekly candle. If a LL forms on the smaller TFs this means that the Daily HL will continue to retrace down to the 78.6% retesting the previous weekly HL. On my chart I have highlighted two TP areas where price can continue to retrace if we get a third week of retracement:
- 17,640.5 which is the 78.6% reracement level on the Daily TF
- 16,807.9 which is not only a retest of the previous weekly HL but also the point at which the monthly HL should signal. If price reaches here, this would mark the first monthly HL since October 2022. (price has essentially been on a strong uptrend for over 2 years).
With that being said, I will not be taking any trades on Sunday and Monday as I will be observing price action accordingly to decipher the trend for the rest of the week.
Happy Trading Everyone.
If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask
The Fair Value GapThe gap below here is in same dancing steps with the daily Zone, Which makes it even way more delicious by being below the zone of the left sided 4H way back bearish move, it is where we made a U-Turn
NAS100 Outlook 💹 Indices:
👁️ Outlook
Long Term time frame (5hr): We have been breaking bearish on the 5hr and showing strength to the downside.
Long Term (5hr): Price however is over extended and needs to build liquidity over the week.
Intermediate frame (30m): This is what I am expecting for the sessions to look like by the time its NY session.
I believe we could be seeing longs for the start of the week on Indices to build that liquidity. I will be looking for longs Monday NY session depending how price looks at 8:30am EST.
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
NASDAQ CHART FOR 08.09.2024The following Chart is for Nasdaq for CPI and PPI
This chart has only one scenario.
Currently it is is in a down trend for a liquidity grab for the previous upside movement.
it will be moving more towards the down side as it looks to break the current channel it is in. The move to the upside will take place only on CPI as it will sell first then buy to start a movement back up for liquidity.
Buy zones have been added and stop hunt zone as well.
NAS100 - " LONG " Then " SHORT "20 SMA - Blue
200 SMA - Pink
Key Confluence areas - Grey Lines
How I see it:
Price is still under the SMA's Cross. 20 SMA is falling.
Therefore, I can't see price re-testing confluence much higher than 18800.
1) Price might initially continue to 18188 or a little further down into the order block.
2) Then retrace back to 18800 confluence area.
3) Before continuing further down to 17200.
Nasdaq already in a Bear Market Hello everyone,
We are currently in a topping process and chances are July 10, 2024 was the top for the Nasdaq (NDX). I believe that we will fill the gap before entering the bear market. A confirmation of a lower high on NDX and a higher high on SPX would show a clear divergence confirming a market top. It's clear that the Russell (IWM) is not making new highs and showing a clear divergence from SPX and NDX making new highs suggesting this is the top. NDX may have already entered a bear market and will not be making new highs and this is simply an ABC corrective wave up before making new lows.
TLDR: NDX ABC CORRECTIVE WAVE UP BEFORE NEW LOWS; NDX WILL MAKE LOWER HIGHS AND SPX NEW HIGHS WILL CONFIRM THIS A MARKET TOP
NAS100 │ 9 - 13 September 2024
- Daily timeframe
Swing structure remains bullish but as anticipated internal structure is pulling back to an origin demand zone. The question that remains now is whether this demand zone will actually hold price and eventually drive the market higher of is this the start of a bearish trend on NASDAQ?
· Bullish bias
- Four-hour timeframe
The swing structure is bullish and internal is bearish, assuming that the internal is only facilitating for a pullback and we are approaching an area where the bulls might step in.
· Bullish bias
- 15-minute timeframe
All 15m structure are aligned with the 4h internal structure, further emphasizing the bearish price action that is presumably facilitating the daily internal and 4h swing pullback. At the time of this analysis we have not yet tapped into a significant demand level and should we, for whatever reason, see a reversal it would be at the break of 18516.3.
· Bearish bias
How do I come to a bias conclusion?
I look at the swing structure; if it is bearish, I conclude a bearish bias
©Austin Palmer for FONOS Fx, 2024.
NASDAQ CRUSHING!? Hear ye hear ye! Traders I'm excited to share my technical analysis with the rest of the tradingview community. Below is my technical reasons why I'm think Nasdaq will likely fall.
Reasons for execution
1)PMH LIQUIDATED
2)-Choch
3)0.236 Fibonacci +
4)-OF
5)1.618 Fib Expansion + Unmitigated
YOUR IN TRADING
@roberto_us30
Will Nasdaq100 go down on monday ?I think that the Nasdaq100 might go down on sunday because it is actually on the low of an order block.
US100 MARKET OUTLOOKWe’re still having a bullish-like structure. A buy opportunity is envisaged from 15187.7 wait till price get to that zone to capitalize on it.
US100 | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
# Trend | Time Frame Conductive | Weekly Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | Daily Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.786 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
us100 idea with daily fvg and htf swing lows and highsI believe the nasdaq will make a move to the htf sellside liquidity to do a stop hunt and sweep the liquidity, then continue its movement to the daily fvg zone.
US 100. ON A BLOCKokay, we have a breaker ,I'm interested. hope next week US100 gives us a clear direction, see yall next week✌
NDX Setup for Next DanceAfter the market received confirmation for a short position, I have setup a plan for several future possibilities.
I see that the market trends to be bearish after last Friday's NPF, also based on the Elliot wave, it is time to go back down after rising for some time.
There are several crucial points that I noted:
1. 18,250 if this is broken, there is a big possibility that the decline will continue to 17,400 etc.
2. 19,050 if this is broken, it will most likely continue to 19,800
Notes:
just sharing ideas please comment for other options and corrections
