ADAUSD ADA on target, will it hold or drop lower?
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ADAUSD ADA on target, will it hold or drop lower?ADAUSD If you are looking for some hopium, check out the last Idea I posted on BTC and total Crypto Market Cap.
BTCUSD ADAUSD 
XRPUSD Sorry it has to be a post it's too long to comment Trader-Berke Preface
This isn't saying that selling a change of character after dropping from 109K to 88K is a bad move, I just decided to use ChoCh and BoS as a parallel to the importance of waiting for confirmed signals across the charts that DO have a history, and we CAN use to look for previous signs they have shown as indication that they are entering a prolonged bear market. NASDAQ, S&P, IWM, etc.
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I am not manipulating anything, I am saying that we do NOT have any OBJECTIVE CONFIRMATION of a bear market until structure breaks, that can only happen when the low has been taken.
Thank you for mentioning ChoCh as evidence.
A bit ironic considering you called me a coping gambler.
Anyway, it’s the perfect case study to explain why the need of waiting for CONFIRMATION and not act on how we feel or how it seems like things are going. Let alone people like MarioR_2021 coming out saying they HATE people who are sharing hope and bullish narratives. Time will tell but that may have been a great buy signal.
(All of this is from the weekly chart)
A ChoCh signals the POTENTIAL of a bear market – it confirms that you've had a pullback, and increases likelihood of prices going lower; but until you have a break of structure, it cannot confirm anything further than a pull back.
We now have a ChoCh at 88K, and price has gone lower since.
If you sold that signal, you'd be feeling pretty good, but what do you do if price rockets from here?
How do you know that you'll be able to buy back in at a lower price? The structure has not broken yet.
If you’re lucky, price goes lower and breaks structure, and you win your coin toss. The other 50% of the time - the first signal to buy back will only appear when price is higher than where you sold it.
In every instance on BTC's weekly chart, if you sold and didn't have a BoS afterwards, you sold AFTER most of the move down had happened, only to buy back higher.
May 2018, ChoCh was seen after a 67% decline, the BoS appeared 3% lower and the total decline was 84%. You could then buy back at the first bullish ChoCh, a 30% discount from the price you sold.
In March 2020, a ChoCh was first seen after price declined 54%, price declined a further 17%. There was no break of structure, and price made a higher low and continued upwards 1574%. You could buy in at the next ChoCh at a 60% premium.
In 2022, ChoCh appeared after a 42% drop, BoS at 53%; you could buy back in again at the first bullish ChoCh at a 35% discount. You would’ve bought BTC at 21K near the bear lows.
July 2024, ChoCh present following a 23% decline, price declined a further 10%. There was no break of structure, and price went on to make the current all-time high.
February 2025, ChoCh appears after a 18.9% decline at 88K. Price has declined a further 10%. There has been no break of structure.
Based on history, should we wait for CONFIRMATION and sell lower if BoS occurs, or the first ChoCh?
(I understand the issue here of the ChoCh being considerably closer to the high than the BoS, only other time that risky was March 2024, which is intriguingly similar)
If price dumps from here & doesn't take the low? It is still not a bear market.
It is a crash, and we go range below the ATH into a crypto winter.
Can that Crypto Winter precede a bear market? Yes.
Only when there is CONFIRMATION across markets, or BTC does break structure, can it ever OFFICIALLY be a bear market.
Until then you are still able to have higher lows and higher highs on a cyclic level.
The issue here is that price cannot break structure from the current high without breaking and invalidating several other indicators and projections that have been consistent for the past decade or so.
I like to think we go higher and that doesn't happen, but it is a young asset and projections can't be trusted too much.
ADAUSD what's the 61.8%-78.6% called again?
ADAUSD XRPUSD BTCUSD I hate people who spread fear on X and TradingView, price has pulled back and we are now officially experiencing continuation into an UNCERTAIN market environment, and it will probably pick a side sometime soon. MarioR_2021
What confirmation do you have that we are in a bear market?
What objective data is there that can be used to determine that, beyond your personal feelings towards the market?
There are signs, but there is no confirmation.
There is a significant lack of awareness and negligence to call that we are OFFICIALLY in a bear market. (AND Its gonna be a long one!)
If the measurement you are using is your personal sentiment towards the market at the moment, I can almost guarantee that the same measurement is what got burnt you enough to feel this negatively in the first place.
BEAR MARKET CONFIRMED!!!~ UNRECOVERABLE BEAR MARKET guys BECAUSE because RUG because reeeee raaa!
The S&P is currently within -20% of it's one year high, traditionally a bear market becomes more likely once we EXCEED that for a prolonged period.
We are currently seeing one of the most extreme oversold signals on the S&P we have seen in its history.
Meanwhile, it's had 6 consecutive days without closing +- 1%.
100% of the time that that has happened, the first occurrence being in 1950, it has ended up being a green year, with an average +25% return by the years end.
Since 2000, the Russell has not had more than 6 consecutive weeks down. We are now at 6 weeks consecutively down. Is there a bounce coming, or do we continue down and break a 25 year trend because of how you feel?
Based on the other data we have available on other charts, is a potential bounce likely to be stronger into bullish continuation, or a weaker relief rally into a bear market?
NASDAQ is the one to watch, it's still holding it's 200 day moving average, and if it does lose it, we have a historical indicator we can use to assess what might come next based on how far below it it goes, and what that has meant in the past.
There is currently record high put volume on the QQQ from retail traders, put volume has also approached peaks for the IWM and & the S&P.
None of this means that I am saying that we could not possibly be approaching a bear market, but the reality is that since 2022 we have been OFFICIALLY in a bull market; and that remains true until broken. It has not broken.
The price is smack bang in the middle between the last cycle higher low and higher high. To validate and confirm a bear market it needs to break the cycle structure, that means going below 50K.
You HATE people spreading hope, because it violates how you feel because you got fuckin smoked? weak
ADAUSD Will be retesting 0.64 before any recovery .Follow me on Trading view and thank me later
ADAUSD The Whole market is poised for 🚀 If you don’t see it then try anther profession or hobby! Still more volatility to come but the upside is far greater than the downside.ADAUSD Dead coin, Hopeless, this will hit the 20s in no time
ADAUSD low volume. targeting 0.700