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ADAUSD trade ideas

2021 ADA vs 2024/2025 ADA - Dominace, BTC valuation, Market CapAs Mr. Cowen puts it: "Price does not follow narrative, narrative follows price". With this in mind let's start by asking two questions: 1) What drove ADA in the prior cycle? 2) What is driving ADA this cycle and are there similarities between 2020/2021 and now? -Is it the Presidential Election Cycle Theory? That every 4 years, like clockwork, BTC goes parabolic and drags the entire asset class up with it. -Is it the Fed printing trillions upon trillions of dollars? That this increased money supply combined with an increase in retail/institutional interest in the crypto space has artificially inflated the USD valuation of both BTC and ALTs? -Is it Hoskinson already having established himself in the crypto space with ETH but also having a genuine, tangible desire to create what Cardano has become? He's made his wealth, he has a vision, he employs a team of engineers, and leans on an ever growing legion of global developers to continue to refine the Cardano ecosystem. -Is it some combination of all of the above, other factors I'm not even aware of, and/or just simple "I believe in it and will therefore use and hold it?" ~~ What most people are interested in is that ADAUSD went from a few cents to $3.10 in the span of a 18 months: A greater than 10,000% gain. And after a long slumber, it's on the move again...but why? What is driving it this time around and what is the potential USD valuation that these forces could push ADA too? -The US presidential election just happened and BTC is knocking on the door of $100k. -The Fed has begun to lower interest rates and will potentially start QE in 2025. -The next administration is likely to be far friendlier to the crypto space as a whole than the prior admin. -Gary Gensler is also resigning from the SEC on Jan 20th, 2025. -More people, both within the US and globally, are adopting, using, and holding crypto today than ever before. -The Cardano ecosystem is far, far more developed than it was 4 years ago. Now you can love ADA or hate it, you can think its mana from heaven or simply trash, you can deeply understand it and it's applications or have no understanding of it all. None of that really matters because ultimately, price action is king. The old adage of "buy the rumor, sell the news" needs to be visited here. Why? -Charles is potentially poised to be the incoming administration's, presidential crypto advisor. He might not get the job (and has written that he thinks Brian Armstrong should have it), but at the end of the day he is friends with many of the people who will occupy some of the highest jobs in the federal government. -He also plans on spending a lot of time in Washington in 2025 generally advising Congress on crypto policy. -There is allegedly a N.D.A. for Cardano to be the blockchain ecosystem that SpaceX (and other of Elon's companies) use going forward. ~~ All of this suggests, to me at least, that ADAUSD is poised to continue it's rally. To what extent, I don't know, but we can maybe gain some understanding by looking at ADA's dominance, ADA's marketcap, and the ADABTC valuation. ADAUSD of $3.00 is a Marketcap of: $107 Billion (Greater than the current MC of #6, XRP) ADAUSD of $5.00 is a Marketcap of: $178 Billion (Greater than the current MC of #4, SOL) ADAUSD of $8.00 is a Marketcap of: $286 Billion ADAUSD of $10.00 is a Marketcap of: $357 Billion ADAUSD of $12.00 is a Marketcap of: $429 Billion (Greater than the current MC of #2, ETH) Let's make 2 assumptions (which may be completely wrong) for the sake of example. 1) The total Marketcap of the entire crypto space is going to roughly top around $10T. It's currently $3.27T at time of writing. 2) ADA's Dominance will top roughly around 4% AND the ADABTC valuation will top roughly around 4500 sats. Well, if the MC goes to $10T and if ADA's dominance goes to 4%, that's an ADA MC of $400 Billion which would imply a USD valuation of roughly $ 11.80/ADA. A more than 10x return from where we are right now...but significantly less than the 100x from last cycle. ~~ The tricky part is the ADABTC valuation. Assuming BTC's price doesn't change at all and ADA's just skyrockets (an extremely unlikely scenario, but please work with me for a second), we're a 318% increase away from the sat target of 4500. In this scenario, ADA triples to a new all time high, but doesn't hit a USD valuation of $5/ADA. Is Bitcoin going to triple in price from it's current USD value THIS CYCLE? Call me a bear, but I just don't see BTC at 300k in 2025. I hope I'm wrong, but I just think we're a cycle or two away from that point. If BTC hits $125k though, what life does this breath into the ADABTC valuation? It means that ADA can more than triple and still be under the ~4500 sat target...corresponding to a USD value maybe in the $3.8-$5 range. ~~ Of course, these are moot points IF ADA entrenches itself as the likes of another ETH this cycle. Exiting the halls of being an Altcoin and firmly establishing itself as a blue-chip, household name. For this to happen, ADA's satoshi valuation against BTC would have to absolutely smash the prior cycle highs...or BTCUSD would have to reach a crazy high value...or the total crypto marketcap would have to vastly exceed $10T...or some combination of the aforementioned. I do not have a crystal ball and I cannot predict the future, but I do think that an ADA can cautiously hit $8 this cycle. Will it happen? I don't know. I'm long term bullish on ADA so I'm not sweating the next 6-9 months. ~~ All of that being said: this is not financial, trading, or investment advice. Do your own due diligence. I am not responsible for any gains or loses you may or may not have.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by Varmushu
3
Analyzing Cardano's Resurgence Due To Whale ActivityCardano (ADA), the proof-of-stake blockchain platform, has been making significant strides in the cryptocurrency market, defying the broader market downturn and attracting the attention of large-scale investors. The recent surge in whale activity, characterized by transactions involving substantial amounts of ADA, has ignited optimism among the Cardano community. A Beacon of Stability in a Turbulent Market While many cryptocurrencies have struggled to maintain their value amidst market volatility, Cardano has emerged as a beacon of stability. This resilience can be attributed to several factors: • Strong Fundamental Value Proposition: Cardano's focus on sustainability, scalability, and security has solidified its position as a leading blockchain platform. Its unique proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, Ouroboros, offers energy-efficient and environmentally friendly transaction processing. • Active Development and Innovation: The Cardano team continues to actively develop and innovate on the platform. Recent advancements, such as the implementation of smart contract functionality through the Alonzo hard fork, have expanded Cardano's capabilities and attracted a growing developer community. • Strong Community Support: A dedicated and passionate community of supporters has been instrumental in driving Cardano's growth. This community actively participates in the network's development, governance, and promotion. Whale Activity: A Bullish Indicator The recent surge in whale activity on the Cardano network is a significant bullish indicator. Large-scale investors, often referred to as whales, are typically sophisticated market participants who make informed investment decisions. Their increased interest in Cardano suggests a strong belief in the platform's long-term potential. Whale activity can influence market sentiment and price trends in several ways: • Accumulation: Whales may be accumulating ADA in anticipation of future price appreciation. This increased demand can drive the price higher. • Market Manipulation: While less likely in a decentralized market like Cardano, large-scale transactions can potentially impact short-term price movements. • Signaling Confidence: Whale activity can signal confidence in the project's future, encouraging other investors to follow suit. The Road Ahead for Cardano As Cardano continues to evolve and mature, its potential for future growth remains significant. The platform's focus on sustainability, scalability, and security positions it well to address the challenges facing the broader blockchain industry. Additionally, the growing interest from institutional investors and the active development of the Cardano ecosystem further bolster its prospects. However, it's important to approach any investment with caution and conduct thorough research before making any decisions. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Key Takeaways: • Cardano's strong fundamentals, active development, and supportive community have contributed to its resilience in a turbulent market. • The recent surge in whale activity is a positive indicator of investor confidence in Cardano's long-term potential. • While the future of Cardano is promising, it's essential to approach investments with caution and consider the inherent risks associated with the cryptocurrency market. By staying informed about Cardano's progress and market trends, investors can make informed decisions and potentially benefit from the platform's future growth.
COINBASE:ADAUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Does This $9 ADA Cycle Make Sense to You?This chart highlights key moments from ADA’s last cycle: the halving date, breakout, and all-time high (ATH). I’ve also added the bar pattern from the previous cycle to compare it with the current timeframe. If the pattern repeats, ADA could rise to $9 in the next bull market before dropping in the bear market to $1—a crucial level that has acted as strong support in the past. Do you think this cycle will play out the same way? Let me know your thoughts and predictions!
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by Tucoin
8
Cardano (ADA) - Bull Flag TargetFrom a technical perspective, ADA price action has led to the formation of a bull flag pattern in the four-hour timeframe, as shown in the chart A bull flag is a bullish indicator that forms after the price consolidates inside a down-sloping range following a sharp price rising upwards. Bull flags typically resolve after the price breaks above the upper trendline and rise by as much as the previous uptrend's height. This puts the upper target for ADA price at $1.11 - levels last seen in April 2022. ADA's daily relative strength index is also still in the neutral zone at 59. This suggests that the chances of a major pullback are relatively low. 🌟Key Levels: 🚩$0.546= Flag Pole 🟢$0.703= Line of Support 🔴Line of Resistance= $0.767 🎯Target= $1.11
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by Bitcoin_Benny
CARDANO 1D Golden Cross pushing for Resistance breakout to $1.40Last time we looked at Cardano (ADAUSD) was on September 24 (see chart below), when we called for the strongest buy signal in a year: It couldn't have been more timely as we went from a 0.3690 price to 0.8200, a +120% rise. This High is also testing the March 14 2024 High, currently Resistance 2. The market just formed a 1D Golden Cross and last time it had one was exactly 1 year ago (November 18 2023). Soon after Resistance 2 broke and the price reached a little above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Even the 1D RSI is on a similar fractal. As a result, once ADA closes a 1D candle above Resistance 2, we will target $1.400 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:ADAUSDLong
by TradingShot
ADA update!A safe entry without significant exposure to downside risk requires patience and proper risk management. here are some key considerations: 1. Identify Key Levels • Support Levels: • $0.6921: This is the recent low on the 1H chart and acts as immediate support. Entering near this level could provide a safer entry with a tight stop-loss. • $0.6750-$0.6800: If $0.6921 breaks, this zone near the MA(10) on the daily chart could act as the next support. • Resistance Levels: • $0.7419: Short-term resistance where the price may face selling pressure. • $0.8174: The recent peak and critical resistance level. Breaking above this could signal a new bullish rally. 2. Monitor Indicators • RSI: • On the daily chart, RSI (79.86) is in the overbought zone, suggesting a higher risk of a pullback. Waiting for RSI to cool down (e.g., 50-60) may offer a safer entry. • On the 1H chart, RSI (44.04) shows the asset is nearing oversold territory, which might present a short-term bounce opportunity. • MACD: • The 4H and 1H charts show weakening bearish momentum, which could indicate consolidation or a potential reversal. 3. Entry Strategies • Option 1: Buy Near Support: • Wait for the price to test $0.6921. If it holds, you could consider entering here with a tight stop-loss slightly below ($0.6820-$0.6850). • This strategy minimizes downside risk while capturing potential upside. • Option 2: Wait for Confirmation: • If the price breaks above $0.7419 with strong volume, it indicates bullish continuation. Enter on a confirmed breakout above this level, placing your stop-loss below $0.7300. • Option 3: Scale Entries: • Divide your position into parts and enter in increments: 1. 50% near $0.6921 (if support holds). 2. 50% on a breakout above $0.7419. 4. Protect Against Downside • Stop-Loss Placement: • Place your stop-loss slightly below critical support levels (e.g., $0.6850 or $0.6750). • This ensures minimal loss if the price breaks lower. • Risk/Reward Ratio: • Aim for a minimum 2:1 risk/reward. For example, if risking $0.015 per coin, target at least $0.030 profit. 5. Watch Volume and Market Sentiment • Ensure significant buying volume accompanies a breakout or bounce. • If volume decreases or bearish pressure intensifies near resistance, be cautious of fake breakouts. Final Suggestion A safe entry could be around $0.6921 (if support holds) or after a breakout above $0.7419. To avoid downside, use tight stop-losses and do not overleverage. Always confirm the move with higher timeframes (4 hour and daily) before entering.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by EllieAsl
Bearish Signals: Time to Short ADAUSDAs I prepare to share my bearish trade idea for ADAUSD, here are key trends that support my outlook: - Market Sentiment: Cardano (ADA) has faced a significant downturn, losing nearly 13% this week and about 41% year-to-date. This reflects growing concerns among investors and a lack of bullish momentum. - Technical Indicators: A bearish divergence between ADA's price and daily active addresses suggests weakening demand, indicating potential further declines. - Price Action: ADA is trading below crucial moving averages (20-day and 50-day), trapped in a declining channel. This reinforces the bearish sentiment as it approaches the lower boundary. In my trading strategy, I focus on probabilities to position myself for short trades on ADAUSD. In summary, by leveraging probabilities alongside market trends, I aim to strategically position myself for potential declines in ADAUSD. This disciplined approach not only enhances my trading strategy but also aligns perfectly with the current bearish environment. Join me as we navigate this market together! P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out. 4H:https://www.tradingview.com/x/IFRT8mYP/
BITFINEX:ADAUSDShort
by Jasminex1x2
7
Cardano: In Wave [v]From the low of the orange wave on November 4 to the peak of the subsequent orange wave last Sunday, ADA surged by more than 100%. The brief pullback in the orange wave was caught by our now grayed-out Target Zone. Currently, the orange wave should be underway, potentially pushing the price well beyond the $0.65 resistance level. However, there remains a 33% chance for a bearish short-term alternative scenario. In this case, an imminent sell-off into our green Target Zone between $0.44 and $0.35 would occur. This would imply that ADA completed its orange five-wave upward structure at the $0.65 resistance and has already entered the subsequent corrective green wave alt.2.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by MarketIntel