AERO: Coming in to Refuel… or Crash Land!? AERO: Coming in to Refuel… or Crash Land!?
📅 Date: May 23, 2025
🧠 Framework: Elliott Wave with Fibonacci structure
🔍 Context: 4H timeframe
🔁 Recap of the Move
AERO rallied off the 0.3465–0.3475 double bottom in what appears to be a clean 5-wave impulsive sequence. The price action respected both structural and Fibonacci guidelines:
Wave 2 and Wave 4 both pulled back to 0.5 retracements.
Wave 3 extended and subdivided with strong momentum, a common characteristic
Wave 5 completed between 0.5 and 0.618 of Wave 3 from the Wave 4 low — a textbook termination zone
Subdivisions within Wave 5 were also visible, including a smaller internal Wave 3 and 5, reinforcing the case for a completed motive wave.
⚠️ Current Price Behavior
Post-impulse, the market is showing signs of correction. This pullback could mark the beginning of a deeper retracement, or it may be the early stages of a new larger-degree impulse if the uptrend continues.
📏 Levels to Watch
Retracement zone: 0.54–0.49 (50–61.8% of the full move)
Upside resumption: Requires a strong bounce from the retrace zone and break of the Wave 5 high
🔮 Outlook
Two scenarios remain on the table:
Bullish: This is a Wave 2 retracement in a larger degree move. If support holds, a strong Wave 3 may follow.
Bearish/Neutral: The 5-wave or 3-wave structure is fully complete, and a deeper correction could be in play.
Confirmation will come through structure, not assumption. Keep watching how price behaves around the key retrace levels.
📣 Trade safe, trade clarity. More updates coming as structure evolves.
