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Idea for next week.The US Dollar (USD) continued to hover near recent highs amid Trump policy uncertainty, a possible return to US exceptionalism and less dovish Fedspeaks. DXY was last at 106.55 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. DXY may enter into consolidation “Overnight, Fed chair Powell said that the Fed does not need to be ‘in a hurry to lower rates’ and that the current strength of the economy allows it to approach decisions carefully. On labour market, he said ‘it is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with employment mandate’.
TVC:DXY
by EZIO-FX
DXY. When to Expect a Weak Dollar?Hello traders and investors! At the end of September and the beginning of October, I analyzed AUDUSD and EURUSD, where the technical picture predicted a decline in these currencies against the dollar. You can find these posts in related ideas. There were discussions with colleagues about how many countries' economies need a weaker dollar. I wouldn’t mind profiting from a dollar decline either, but a month and a half ago, there were no signs of a DXY drop. Let's take a look at what the chart suggests and when this might happen. Weekly Timeframe A sideways range formed on the weekly chart in March 2023 (point 4 was established). The lower boundary is 99.099, and the upper boundary is 106.952. The buyer's vector 11-12 has reached its obligatory target — the price level of point 10 within the range (106.169). This means we can start watching for seller activity on the weekly timeframe. If the sellers show up, the seller's vector 12-13 becomes relevant, with potential targets of 99.807 and 99.099. Note that the key bar (with the highest volume) of the buyer’s vector 11-12 is the bar from November 4. Daily Timeframe There’s a long trend on the daily chart. The last buyer's impulse ranges from 103.86 to 106.734. The key bar of the impulse (highest volume) is the bar from November 14. Hourly Timeframe On the hourly chart, a sideways range has formed. The lower boundary is 106.037, and the upper boundary is 106.734. The current buyer's vector 8-9 has potential targets of 106.681 and 106.734. From there, it's not far to 106.952 (the upper boundary of the weekly range). Summary The price has approached levels on the weekly TF where a reversal may begin. For now, there are no signs of a reversal on the weekly and daily TF. We need to see signs of seller activity on the weekly chart to look for short positions with the goal of realizing the seller's vector 12-13 in the weekly range. You can look for long or short positions on the hourly chart by trading within the range from boundary to boundary (if the boundary holds). Until the DXY reverses, looking for long positions in other currencies against the dollar is risky. Good luck with your trading and investments!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AlexeyWolf
My technical analysis on DXYAt the moment I am expecting uptrend moves on EURUSD and GBPUSD, I want these pairs to make corrections of an impulsive downtrend move they have been having lately. DXY (our benchmark because these pairs are /USD) is currently in a supply zone on the Daily timeframe. The market is reacting from this zone and seems to have created a downtrending liquidity line and is respecting the change of direction on the 30M timeframe. If the market climbs above this liquidity and subsequently shows us a downtrend shift, I believe we will see strong buying strength on EURUSD and GBPUSD in the week of 11/18/2024 - 11/22/2024.
TVC:DXY
by RobertK1M
Market Analysis: What is the next move for USD? November 2024 Following a decisive victory for Donald Trump, investors have shown renewed confidence in the USD, driven by his "America First" policy, which is expected to prioritize domestic economic growth. This shift has led to a significant rally in the USD across major currency pairs. However, it's crucial to note that the sustainability of this rally could hinge on Trump's approach to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. If the administration avoids further conflict, it could help stabilize oil markets and prevent a steep decline in demand. This week, the Federal Reserve made a noteworthy announcement, signalling that it does not intend to lower interest rates in the near term, contrary to market expectations. The previous anticipation of a rate cut in December has been largely discounted, which has further bolstered the USD. The Fed's stance acts as a buffer against potential downside risks in oil prices, supporting the USD even if oil experiences another downturn. On November 8 and November 14, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on U.S. crude oil inventories. The reports showed an unexpected increase of 2.1 million barrels for the week ending November 8, significantly higher than the expected 0.4 million barrel build. This marked the second consecutive week of larger-than-expected inventory growth, exerting additional downward pressure on oil prices. In contrast, the Chinese government opted against implementing a substantial fiscal stimulus, despite the ongoing economic slowdown. Instead, Chinese authorities directed major banks to reduce deposit rates to stimulate liquidity. This decision suggests a reluctance to engage in aggressive monetary easing, even as the country faces mounting pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs. These tariffs could intensify competition among Chinese producers, potentially prompting further calls for economic support from Beijing. Amid these developments, oil prices fell sharply, hitting $66 per barrel this week. A break below the psychological support level of $65 could trigger a deeper decline, with the potential for prices to reach the $55-$50 range. Such a drop may introduce bearish pressure on the USD, as lower oil prices tend to affect U.S. inflation expectations and broader market sentiment. - Correlation between DXY and Oil Prices creates trade opportunities. On November 15, USD/JPY exhibited a strong bearish impulse, reflecting a shift in market dynamics. As a major oil importer, Japan stands to benefit from lower oil prices, which may have contributed to the JPY's strength against the USD. This move could foreshadow similar weakness in the USD against other currencies, presenting potential trading opportunities. Given the current fundamental outlook and technical price structure, bullish setups may emerge on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as both pairs have broken key support levels and are now positioned for a corrective rebound on the daily timeframe. This correction could provide favourable entries on lower timeframes. On the other hand, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are likely to underperform relative to EUR/USD and GBP/USD due to their strong economic ties with China. The slowdown in Chinese economic activity is expected to weigh on both the Australian and New Zealand dollars, limiting their upside potential. This divergence may create additional trading opportunities in cross pairs like GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/AUD, and EUR/NZD, as capital flows favour the relatively stronger European currencies over the weaker commodity-linked currencies.
TVC:DXYShort
by Nine-Trader
DXY showing signs of 1HR TopDXY currently forming bear divergence on daily time frame and on the 1HR time frame just set a lower high with a prior lower low. Price is still extended up very high and with some consolidation this could still push up however with the rising wedge formation on the 1 HR time fram we will need to break the formation sooner or later and with the current price action It would appear the liklihood is higher for a correction (Pull back) than it would be for continuation over the coming weeks. US economic news has been in line mostkt with expecations with no major surprises. The biggest concern when playing against the USD right now is the reduced liklihood of a rate cut in the near future. Keep in mind when looking at the DXY daily we are at key resistance levels right now. I would watch for breaks above the current high very closely as we still could look for a push to or above the 2022 High around $114.75.
TVC:DXYShort
by Nicholas_k
DXY, DOLLAR AT THE CROSSROADFRIENDS.. the result of the United States election is a very positive sentiment for Dollars thats why we seen a strong dollars the last few days.. but there are some information about fed rate cut next month and usually market will react before the actual happening.. these are 2 dxy important level : 107 ( 3 times resist at 2023) 105 ( major trend line break out and still not yet pullback ) my opinion there will be some retest until 105 if break then we will see 100.. if rebound from 105 the price will try to break resistance at 107 and if dxy can break it we shall see dxy return to 110-113 FRIENDS.. ALWAYS DYOR before opening position
TVC:DXY
by KENAROKTRADINGFX
DXY Will Go Up! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 7h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 106.564. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 107.267 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Trump Trade Thoughts - USD at Range ResistanceWhere do I start? Irrespective of your opinions regarding Donald Trump, his recent election win and resounding defeat for the Democrats will unquestionably go down in history. Not only did the Republicans bag a clean sweep of all seven swing states, they secured a majority in Congress – winning both the House of Representatives and the Senate. In political parlance, this is a ‘trifecta’. While Trump is busy allocating Cabinet and Administrative positions, what does this mean for traders? Two words: ‘Trump Trade’ US stock markets outperformed in the lead-up to and following the election results, and key indices recently ventured to record highs. Impressively, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are up 25% year to date. The post-election rally has benefited several stocks, but one stands out: Tesla (TSLA), which surpassed US$1 trillion in market value and is up 25% year to date. Additionally, Trump appointed Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to head up the newly created Department of Government Efficiency. The US dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields have also been doing well pre- and post-election, with the former up 5% year to date. Despite the spirited advance, the Research Team did a superb job of highlighting a potential technical headwind in the shape of long-term range resistance around the 107.19 region on the US Dollar Index. While many factors govern the USD’s trend, this resistance marks a critical juncture for the greenback and could prompt profit-taking. However, most traders will likely look for a breakout to the upside here, effectively opening the door for breakout plays: a continuation of current momentum with limited nearby resistance seen overhead. It would also be remiss of me not to reference Bitcoin (BTC) touching record highs just south of US$95k versus the USD; while I did not think we’d see US$100k quite so soon, this milestone may be reached before the year-end. This perspective is primarily influenced by the incoming Administration's anticipated ‘crypto-friendly’ approach, which is expected to provide regulatory clarity and flexibility. Although previously sceptical of the cryptocurrency market, one of Trump’s pledges involves making the US, and I quote, ‘the crypto capital of the planet’. Coupled with his campaign receiving donations in Digital Currencies and the recent launch of World Liberty Financial, a family business that is designed as a decentralised finance (DeFi) platform where users can invest in Cryptocurrencies, this marks quite a U-turn from his first term as president. The US Federal Reserve continues to claim some of the limelight. A cooling labour market, resilient growth and robust spending underscore the possibility of another 25 basis point rate cut in December, aligning with market pricing (currently assigning an 80% probability of a cut). However, while further easing could be seen next month, with the Trump era just around the corner and inflation remaining sticky, 2025 is shaping up to be a different story. For now, though, the Trump Trade is alive and kicking. This suggests that investors will keep a close eye on US stock markets, the USD, Treasury yields, and Crypto assets. Prepared and written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets
Will the Dollar Retrace After Retail Sales Data?Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near a one-year high ahead of today’s Oct Retail Sales report. Markets expect a 0.3% MoM increase, down from Sep's 0.4%. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no urgency to lower rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation. - According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a 0.25% rate cut next month have dropped to 62.4% from 82.5% a day ago. Technical theme: - The market tests the one-year high area around 107.00, confluence with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension. The index is stretched to the upside and above both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversion. - If DXY cannot remain above 106.35, the index may retrace further to retest 105.43. - On the contrary, if DXY extends its gain above 107.00, the index may retest 107.78, confluence with the 100% Fibonacci Extension. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
DXY reached the critical resistance zone. H4 15.11.2024 DXY reached the critical resistance zone 📉 Honestly, I didn't think they would push the dollar index to the final zone near 107 without a pullback, but they still did. Now they gave a clear reaction downwards and it is very possible that the correction has started. Of course, we cannot deny the possibility of retesting the highs and then continuing the fall, but in general, the first signs of reversal and culmination have already appeared. It is very desirable to close the week below 106.30 and then the idea of a false breakdown of the 2-year highs will be confirmed. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader