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US Presidential Election Forex Analysis5th November US Presidential Election DXY: Could retest 103.50 area, and rebound up to cover gap and up to 104.30 (if price breaks 103.40 could trade down to 102.90) NZDUSD: Sell 0.6040 SL 20 TP 80 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6635 SL 20 TP 60 (trend following) Counter trend opp: Buy 0.6670 SL 30 TP 90 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2980 SL 40 TP 130 EURUSD: Buy 1.0930 SL 30 TP 70 USDJPY: Ranging between 151.70 and 153.40, looking for breakout potential following major news USDCHF: Buy 0.8650 SL 20 TP 55 USDCAD: Sell 1.3870 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: Needs to break 2730 to trade down to 2710 and then possible rebound
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Markets Brace for US Presidential Election and the FedMarket watchers and investors are preparing for one of the most significant weeks of the year: the United States (US) presidential election takes place tomorrow, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. Both events could significantly impact global markets, potentially influencing currencies, equities, bonds, and commodities. Who Will Be the Next President of the World’s Largest Economy? Over the past few months, Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, have been running neck-and-neck in both national polls and state surveys, making it clear that both candidates have about an even chance of winning tomorrow’s election. The presidency will ultimately be decided by the Electoral College outcome, which will be based on the election results in individual states. Each state’s number of electors is proportional to its population size. There are 535 electors for the 50 states and 3 for the District of Columbia; that is a total of 538 electors. A candidate must gain a majority of the electoral votes – 270 or more – to win the presidency and for their running mate to become the vice president. If no candidate wins 270 electoral votes, a contingent election occurs: the House of Representatives will elect the president, and the Senate will be tasked with electing the vice president. This makes it possible that the House elects a president from the majority’s preferred party while the Senate chooses a vice president from the other. It should be noted that a candidate may win the popular vote across the country but lose the Electoral College vote. This has happened five times in the past, with the most recent being in 2016 when Trump won the presidency despite trailing behind Hilary Clinton by nearly three million votes nationwide. The 5 November election will also determine which party controls Congress; there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 seats in the Senate up for grabs. Currently, Republicans hold a majority in the House, while Democrats control the Senate – albeit both by slim margins. Polls suggest the control of each chamber could switch this election round. With less than 24 hours to go for the election and more than 77.6 million votes already cast, ABC News/FiveThirtyEight’s latest polls indicate that Harris holds a marginal lead over Trump with 47.9% vs 47.0%. Battleground States Set to Determine the Election Result The seven battle states have a total of 93 electoral votes – with polls indicating razor-thin margins. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, Harris is ahead by three percentage points in Nevada (49% vs 46%), two points in North Carolina and Wisconsin (48% vs 46% and 49% vs 47%, respectively), and one percentage point in Georgia (48% vs 47%). Trump maintains his advantage in Arizona, leading by four percentage points (49% vs 45%). Interestingly, the polls show that the two candidates are locked in close races in Michigan and Pennsylvania, with results in all seven states within the margin of error – meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead. Election Results and Market Impact Exit polls are expected to begin rolling in at approximately 5:00 pm Eastern Time (ET). While these results do not show ‘the full picture’, they can provide early insights and volatility may increase as a result. However, market participants are likely to exercise caution, and rightly so. Results will be adjusted numerous times throughout the evening as more votes are counted. The reporting of results from major swing states will be a crucial period for traders. The process starts with the polls closing in Georgia at 7:00 pm ET and concludes with the results from Nevada at around 10:00 pm ET. You can expect volatility to surge once all the key states’ results are reported at about 11:00 pm ET. Early AM (ET) on 6 November, investors will have more clarity on a potential election winner. While a winner is usually clear at this point, if there is uncertainty, or talks of recounting, markets may consolidate as this could result in legal action from both sides. It is also important to acknowledge that although a winner is generally clear on election day, there are instances when the outcome may not be determined for several hours, days, or even weeks. A clean sweep for Trump is expected to boost demand for the US dollar (USD) and US equities, as well as a rise in US Treasury yields in response to fiscal stimulus. Trump’s pro-growth and domestic policies, and potential for tariffs, could lead to demand for stocks in the financial and energy sectors. Additionally, major cryptocurrencies could catch a bid amid Trump’s ‘plans’ to make the US the ‘Crypto Capital’ of the planet. A clean sweep for Harris is likely to weigh on the USD and US Treasury yields amid less tax cuts and increased spending. Major US equity indices could take a hit on a Harris victory, though the reaction is likely to be mixed. Fed Poised to Cut by 25 Basis Points In addition to the US elections, the Fed will claim a portion of the attention this week, scheduled to make the airwaves at 7:00 pm GMT on Thursday. Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis point (bp) reduction, a move that would bring the target for the funds rate to 4.50-4.75%. The elections are unlikely to sway this decision. In fact, anything other than a cut – particularly following the bumper 50 bp reduction at September’s meeting, the Fed’s latest dot-plot suggesting 50bps of additional easing this year, and robust economic data – would catch the markets off guard and may prompt investors to question whether the Fed made a mistake going for ‘50’ in September. Investors are also expecting another possible 25bp cut at December’s meeting (20 bps of cuts currently priced in). The US economy remains on solid footing, with the Fed still focussed on achieving a soft-landing scenario. Inflation eased for a sixth consecutive month in September, cooling to 2.4% from 2.5% in August – its lowest level since early 2021 – while core inflation increased to 3.3% in September from 3.2% in August. In terms of payrolls, job growth recently ground to a halt, adding a paltry 12,000 jobs to the economy in October (market consensus: 113,000). While this was a surprise, the lower-than-expected print was influenced by weather and strikes, therefore, the Fed are likely to overlook this print and emphasise that attention needs to be on longer-term trends. Unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1%, and wage growth accelerated, which is concerning, with both month-on-month and year-on-year measures showing increases. The latest figures also show that Q3 24 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by an annualised rate of 2.8% (according to the first estimate), defying analyst expectations of 3.1% and the 3.0% reading in Q2. One of the main drivers behind the economy’s resilience was robust consumer spending (up 3.7%). Dollar Index on the Ropes Realistically, longer-term chart studies on the monthly timeframe reveal that the USD has largely been directionless since the beginning of 2023, fluctuating between 100.82 and 107.35. Note that the lower edge of the said range is joined by the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 100.44. However, while the greenback is trading mid-range on the monthly timeframe, price action on the daily timeframe recently crossed beneath its 200-day SMA at 103.83 after shaking hands with resistance at 104.55 in late October. Technically, assuming a daily close beneath the noted SMA, further underperformance could be seen in the USD towards support at 102.78.
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
Elliott Wave View Looking for Dollar Index (DXY) to Rollover to Short Term Elliott Wave View on Dollar Index (DXY) suggests that rally to 104.63 ended wave ((4)). This completed cycle from 9.27.2024 low and the Index should either resume lower in wave ((5)) or pullback in 3 waves at least. The Index has started to turn lower and we are calling the move lower from wave ((4)) high as a diagonal 5 waves. Down from wave ((4)), wave (i) ended at 103.98 and wave (ii) ended at 104.43. Wave (iii) lower ended at 103.82, wave (iv) ended at 104.19, and wave (v) lower ended at 103.68. This completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 104.35. Index resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 103.63 and wave ((iv)) ended at 103.83. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 103.57 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Wave 2 rally is in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) is expected to end soon, then it should pullback in wave ((b)), before the Index rallies higher again in wave ((c)). This will complete wave 2 in higher degree before the Index resumes lower. As far as pivot at 104.63 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
D
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Market News Report - 03 November 2024While it was a mild past week, the USD was pretty strong again. Other bullish currencies include the euro and the British pound. Speaking of the latter, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate soon. Then, we had the most anticipated new Federal Funds on Thursday and the US elections. All of this and more will be covered in our market report of the major forex pairs. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to recent positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations. While the NFP data last Friday was negative, the drop was due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. The US elections on Tuesday may provide a notable boost for USD if Trump wins. However, we also have the new Fed interest rate two days later, where a cut is anticipated. So, the bias remains weak bearish in the near term. The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken several times about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. While there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore (thanks to some economic improvements), the Fed is still expected to cut the interest. Labour data will be another key driver in the long term for USD. However, the upcoming US elections could be a huge redeeming factor for the greenback if Trump wins (who is highly favoured against Harris). Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations (although the Eurozone Gross Domestic/GDP growth was above expectations). The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts, breaking the key support at 1.07774 (but only just). We need to see how this level reacts over the coming weeks- so it's not out of the question. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. Higher German inflation and stronger European growth in Q3 have saved the euro from a downward spiral. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long” and the "gradual need" for decreasing the rate. STIR pricing indicates an 86% chance of a cut on Thursday As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality due to the points discussed earlier. However, a new development is the UK budget, which has been seen as a reason for the central to proceed slowly in this regard. As usual, data remains essential going forward with GBP. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. Unlike in July this year, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept the interest rate the same last week. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted not long ago that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). As recently as 31 October 2024, Ueda also stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections were realised. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, with some promising developments at times. Finally, recent positive unemployment and labour data gives a base case for a hold in the RBA interest rate on Monday this week (priced at 97% probability according to STIR markets). After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. While this market looked bullish, this pullback does surprisingly indicate otherwise. Still, we are quite far from the major support level at 0.63484, but consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future. It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally touched the key resistance at 1.39468. This week will determine whether this area will be breached or not. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this increase. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 20% chance of a 50 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The USD will certainly be the talk of the town this week due to the upcoming elections and Fed rates. Other noteworthy economic releases include the new interest rates for the British pound and the Australian dollar. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
Something to think aboutHey! Here I have a chart where I have marked all the last Nonfarm Payrolls reports in 2024 and how dollar usually reacts to them. As I can see the dollar is falling and will be heading back to South WHY? ..because Oct 04, 2024 was reported: 254k and Nov 01, 2024 was 12k The difference between these two reports are way too big and these elections or Trumps win can`t overlook of this! So.. all the other currencies what have been falling due to dollars rise are now or will be reversing in the near future.. One of the best pair what I have been monitoring in the last few months is AUDUSD .. It have been falling heavily and have positioned itself for a turnaround. Second pair what interests me is USDCAD because it usually moves with dollar in the same direction and is also very well positioned: So is it only me or maybe there is something wrong with my eyes, but something is cooking ;) This is not a financial advice and do Your own research and other great stuff! Trade safe friends! Devi
TVC:DXYShort
by devigriffel
DXY Under Pressure: Analyzing Economic Signals Ahead U.S. Elect.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently showing intriguing movements as it deals with a mix of economic data and looming political changes. After a Friday marked by disappointing economic indicators—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Farm Employment Change—the DXY appears to be entering a potential reversal phase. This was further reflected in its negative opening on Monday, which had a noticeable impact on trading in London. Economic Backdrop and Market Sentiment The DXY's recent performance has been influenced by a combination of economic releases and trader sentiment. The mixed results from significant economic indicators have created a sense of cautious uncertainty among investors. The less-than-ideal ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Employment Change figures have raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy, prompting traders to reassess their positions. As market participants analyze these economic signals, it’s evident that the DXY is acting in response to established price levels and supply zones. Recent price actions suggest a critical juncture; the dollar seems to be encountering resistance as it approaches these key areas. Insights from the COT Report A deeper look at the market dynamics through the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a noteworthy divergence. Retail traders continue to maintain long positions, likely influenced by previous bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar. Meanwhile, institutional investors, often referred to as the "smart money," are taking a more bearish stance, gradually shifting their positions lower. This unsettling divergence raises important questions: Will the enthusiasm of retail traders sway the market, or will the more cautious strategies of institutional investors prevail? This situation highlights the potential for volatility that characterizes these transitional phases in the market. Retail traders may find themselves at risk if the smart money's strategies prove to be more prescient. Seasonal Trends Indicate a Bearish Outlook Adding another layer of complexity, seasonal patterns historically suggest that a bearish trend may be on the horizon during this time of year. Price movements often align with established seasonal patterns, prompting traders to consider the implications for future market performance. The Impending U.S. Elections: A Prelude to Volatility With U.S. elections fast approaching, market volatility is expected to rise significantly. History shows that political events can greatly influence currency and asset prices, leading traders to adjust their positions in anticipation of results. This environment is likely to see retracements across various indices and currencies, creating turmoil across the financial landscape. As market participants prepare for the immediate aftermath of the elections, substantial fluctuations are anticipated. The uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes and the resulting policy shifts will drive considerable movement across asset classes. Conclusion The DXY’s trajectory is complex as it navigates a potential reversal amidst mixed economic signals, diverging trader positions, and impending political changes. With the elections on the horizon, traders should brace for increased volatility and be ready to adapt to rapid shifts in momentum. Staying informed about economic indicators, seasonal trends, and overall market sentiment will be crucial for navigating this challenging landscape. Ultimately, success in these uncertain times will hinge on understanding market psychology while remaining agile in response to both data releases and geopolitical developments. Initial Idea: ✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYShort
by FOREXN1
1
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Nov 3rd—> Nov 8th)Looking Ahead: Next week promises to be pivotal with several major events on the docket: - **U.S. Presidential Election:** A crucial event that could reshape fiscal and economic policies. - **Fed Policy Decision & Powell Press Conference:** The market will closely watch for signals about future rate paths. - **U.S. Jobless Claims:** Key data to gauge the health of the labor market. As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. **Timing is key in trading. Check our www.notion.so for time stamps on these important events and stay ready for what’s ahead.** Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟 Market Forecast (Updated 11/03/2024) **SPX** - Most of the Mag 7 stocks reported really good numbers but issued weak guidance. With FOMC and Election decision this week, We should see a lot of volatility. Next resistance: 5,824 and 5,893 Next support: 5,705, followed by 5,600 Weekly Sentiment: Mixed
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
a possibility that the dollar might go up to the 105 price levela possibility that the dollar might go up to the 105 price level because there might be a significant pullback. especially since the US elections has shown a very volatile effect on the USD and several other currencies in the past week. this might be a good opportunity to take out your spoil from the market or lose too. anyways, be careful. i intend to take trades only if there's a very straightforward setup. that said, if there is no liquidity raid, i won't be taking any trade. i'm not eager to lose or make money.
TVC:DXY
by isaacnsisong
Analysis Dollar / DXY Hello everyone, I haven't been active the whole week. I'm sharing my analysis for the upcoming week. The dollar's bullish momentum was purely market manipulation. What I see is a significant amount of liquidity below that the price wants to collect before continuing with its bullish movement. On the weekly (W) chart, the price is still in consolidation, which could last for a while longer. The daily (D) chart has been in a downtrend so far, but there was a BOS (Break of Market Structure). For this reason, I believe the dollar will be bearish next week.
TVC:DXY
by andricstrahinja95