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A Bullish Turn: Investors Embrace the DollarA Shift in Sentiment In a surprising turn of events, hedge funds, asset managers, and other speculators have shifted their stance on the US dollar, moving into bullish positions in the week ending October 22nd. This significant shift, totaling approximately $9.2 billion in long dollar bets, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) compiled by Bloomberg, marks a dramatic departure from the previous week's net short position. A $10.6 Billion Swing This abrupt change in sentiment represents a substantial $10.6 billion swing from the previous week, when traders were actively betting against the greenback. The reasons behind this bullish pivot are multifaceted, primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the US election approaches. A Recalibration of Fed Expectations A series of positive economic reports released throughout October has forced a recalibration of previously dovish Federal Reserve expectations. The robust economic indicators have raised the possibility of a more hawkish monetary policy stance from the Fed, which could potentially lead to higher interest rates. Historically, a stronger US dollar has been correlated with higher interest rates, making the greenback an attractive investment for global investors. Election-Year Uncertainty As the US presidential election draws near, geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility tend to increase. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The dollar's perceived status as a reliable store of value, combined with the potential for increased market volatility, has likely contributed to the recent surge in demand for the currency. Implications for the Global Economy The shift towards a bullish dollar position has significant implications for the global economy. A stronger dollar can negatively impact emerging market economies that rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt. Additionally, it can make US exports more expensive, potentially hindering economic growth. However, for countries with strong economic fundamentals and current account surpluses, a stronger dollar can be beneficial. A Cautious Outlook While the recent bullish trend in the dollar is notable, it is essential to maintain a cautious outlook. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, and a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, trade tensions, and central bank policies, could influence the dollar's trajectory. As such, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and rewards associated with dollar-based investments. In conclusion, the recent shift towards a bullish dollar position reflects a significant change in market sentiment. A combination of stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets has driven investors to embrace the greenback. While the implications of this trend for the global economy are far-reaching, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY Is Bullish! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.214. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 104.676 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Levels discussed on 28th October Livestream28th October DXY: Retracing from top of 104.55, could trade down to 104.20 before retesting high again. Needs to stay above bullish trendline. NZDUSD: Sell 0.5980 SL 25 TP 65 (Test and reject bearish trendline) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6565 SL 20 TP 80 GBPUSD: Sell 1.30 SL 25 TP 90 EURUSD: Ranging between 1.0780 and 1.0840, could trade up in smaller timeframe USDJPY: Retracing, could test 152.50, look for rejection, Buy 153.10 SL 50 TP 200 USDCHF: Buy 0.8705 SL 15 TP 45 USDCAD: Look for possible retrace and reaction at 1.3850 Gold: Likely to fluctuate between 2720 and 2747 while directional bias develops
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
DXY weekly direction for this weekLooking at the weekly in DXY ,looking for uptrend. The PL might work as the rejection, the H1 line which you can will act as a support/resistance when market approaching that level. If the market broke below the PL and H1 near PL. The market have shifted the direction to SELL. Remember US election just around the corner. Market will react to the economics events instantly. So if any spike during this week and next week or rally towards to the upside or downside its normal during US Election season. Beware with the trade SL when entering the trade. Always manage your RISK %.
TVC:DXY
by tradingwith_ryann
DXY D1 - Short Signal DXY D1 Some large market gaps seen across US30 and US100, XAUUSD also gapping to the downside, trading as low as $2725/oz. DXY still remains below our area of resistance and supply, which trades at around 104.500 price. 105.000 would usually be a good technical psychological trading zone, that being said, there isn't much else on that price that would act as any real method of confluence for the moment. Lets see what happens around this 104.500 price level, we have had a couple of days trading into that zone and a red engulfing candle close on that daily timeframe back on Thursday last week. Could we expect some dumps on DXY this week?
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade_Simple_FX
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Oct 27th—> Nov 1st)Market Forecast (Updated 10/27/2024) **SPX** - Tesla and NFLX started the tech earning season extremely bullish, The rest of the Mag 7 reports this week so there's def going to be volatility. Next resistance: 5,913 and 5,940 Next support: 5,770, followed by 5,570 Weekly Sentiment: Oversold (Possible bounce week) **Dollar Index:** DXY- Canada and china just cut rates, and now ECB is considering a 50 BPs cut. So DXY may continue to see strength but that also puts more pressure for fed to more rates. Next resistance: 104.60 and 106.10 Next support: 103.20 and 102.60 Weekly Sentiment: Bearish (cross to downside) **Put to call Ratio: 1.60—> 1.39 Next FOMC date: 11-06-2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 75—>59**
TVC:DXYLong
by WallSt007
2024 Intermarket AnalysisThis chart compares the performance of several key assets—Bitcoin (blue), Gold (yellow), the S&P 500 (red), the U.S. Dollar Index (green), and WTI Crude Oil (white)—over the past year. Here’s a breakdown of each asset’s performance and its potential implications: Bitcoin (Blue) - Up 50.63% Bitcoin has shown strong performance, with a notably higher volatility than the other assets. The cryptocurrency's rise, particularly in recent months, indicates strong demand and possibly a growing interest in Bitcoin as an alternative asset. Its uncorrelated behavior compared to traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and Gold, highlights its appeal as a diversifying investment, especially during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold (Yellow) - Up 32.47% Gold has performed solidly, with a significant positive return, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset. The increase in gold prices suggests that investors may be hedging against inflation, economic instability, or potential currency devaluation. Gold’s upward trend, coupled with its stability compared to Bitcoin, shows that it continues to be a reliable store of value. S&P 500 (Red) - Up 22.46% The S&P 500 is underperforming compared to other assets. This is influenced by economic slowdown concerns, investors potentially seeking alternative or defensive assets. U.S. Dollar Index (Green) - Up 2.24% The U.S. Dollar Index has shown mild growth, suggesting a stronger dollar relative to other currencies. This strength may stem from tighter monetary policy and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, the dollar's relatively flat trajectory over time shows mixed reactions to broader economic conditions, with the currency acting as a moderate safe haven. WTI Crude Oil (White) - Down 2.36% WTI Crude Oil has seen a minor decline, with fluctuations reflecting supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and economic slowdown fears. The relative stability in oil prices compared to Bitcoin and equities might indicate a balanced market sentiment around energy demand and supply. However, as a crucial economic indicator, crude oil’s trend is essential to monitor for insights into broader economic activity. Key Takeaways: Risk Appetite vs. Safe Haven: Bitcoin and Gold have outperformed, possibly reflecting a flight to alternative and safe-haven assets amidst economic uncertainty. Dollar's Stability: The U.S. Dollar has remained relatively stable, benefiting from its safe-haven status without extreme growth or decline. Energy Market: Crude Oil’s moderate performance suggests mixed sentiment in global economic growth expectations. This analysis indicates a preference for alternative investments like Bitcoin and Gold, It reflects investor caution amidst economic concerns, with the Dollar and Oil serving as more stable assets
TVC:DXY
by Moshkelgosha
2
Market News Report - 27 October 2024The greenback was again a bullish force in the past week. Other currencies that put up an upward fight include the Swiss franc and euro. Then, the Bank of Canada delivered an expected cut in the CAD interest rate. Let's see what to expect for our beloved forex market in the coming weeks in our market report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to recent positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations. Still, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. Meanwhile, a 50 bps cut has pretty much been priced out, with STIR (short-term interest rate) markets seeing a 14% chance of a hold next month. Keep an eye out for NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data this coming Friday. This will probably be the next USD driver, along with the US elections next Tuesday. The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken several times about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest strong NFP report has raised expectations for a 25 bps rate cut (instead of 50 bps), which is giving USD a boost in the near term. So, there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore. While the bearish bias remains, the dollar is gaining amid a broad pullback. This idea could prove even more relevant if Donald Trump wins the election on 05 November. Upcoming labour and GDP data will also be key in determining USD's long-term future. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate recently. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts, breaking the key support at 1.07774 (but only just). We need to see how this level reacts this week - so it's not out of the question. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. Furthermore, a threat of a trade tariff with Trump could be negative. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. So, we are changing our long-term bias from 'bearish' to 'weak bearish' now. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates. As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, weak CPI, labour, or GDP data should be expected to back up the bearish bias. To add further to this point, the last GDP print shows a poor UK economy. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold at the next meeting on Wednesday (but a hike at the start of next year). ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes. However, high iron prices have supported the former. Finally, recent positive unemployment data gives a base case for a hold in the RBA interest rate meeting early next month. After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. While this market looked bullish, this pullback does surprisingly indicate otherwise. Still, we are quite far from the major support level at 0.63484, but consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future. It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is weaker on the charts. USD/CAD is almost at the point of knocking on the key resistance at 1.39468, while the key support lies down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this increase. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data will send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. Conversely, 'safe haven flows,' and geopolitical risks can positively support the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates. Conclusion In summary: The USD seems particularly strong (despite being fundamentally bearish), with the upcoming NFP release and US elections as the events to watch. This week's main high-impact news event is Wednesday's JPY interest rate decision. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
Idea for next week.The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at $104.123, up by 0.10%, but hovers close to a key pivot point at $104.144. This level aligns with the 50-day EMA of $104.146, marking it as a critical zone for short-term direction. Should DXY break above $104.15, we might see upward momentum build, pushing toward immediate resistance at $104.281, with additional targets at $104.407 and $104.545. However, if the dollar falls below $104.144, support at $104.006 could be tested, with further downside risk toward $103.820. Traders should note that maintaining above the pivot is essential for sustaining a bullish trend in the near term.
TVC:DXY
by EZIO-FX
😱 COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR 2022 - 2045 - END OF EMPIREHello ladies and gentlemen! I bring to your attention my very global view of the US dollar solely from the point of view of technical analysis, namely the Elliot wave theory. The graph shows the projection of the missing waves in the impulse of the supercycle - I-II-III-IV-V, the impulse is fully completed and ended back in 1985. In my opinion, from the point of view of technical analysis and the Elliot wave theory itself, a zigzag has been forming globally on the US dollar index in the corrective phase since 1985, with a triangle in wave-(b). The ultimate goal of this zigzag is a collapse of the dollar index by minus -80% from ATH. Ultimately, the Fed will lose in the fight against inflation, after the triangle is fully formed, a descending impulse five will begin in wave-(c) of the zigzag, I believe around 2030 plus or minus the triangle will be broken down, this will be a distress signal and confirmation I'm right, from now on, save your savings, because after the dollar index finds a bottom in the region of 20-30 points, for 100 dollars you can only buy a roll of toilet paper. BRENT oil will be $300-400 per barrel, and gold $5,000-6,000 a troy ounce, and that's even better. Naturally, after this collapse, the dollar will lose its status as the world's main reserve currency, the economy will stagnate amid hyperinflation, it will be many times worse than the Great Depression, and the markets will remember this apocalypse for a long time. After the collapse of the US dollar, a new world order will be established, there will be a new leader and a new major world reserve currency. I believe this will end the approximately 250 year dollar cycle and the US Dollar Index will never again update its ATH. ❌ This trade idea should be reconsidered if DXY exceeds the 121 level, which is unlikely in my opinion. In this case, it will definitely not be a triangle. This is my purely personal author's opinion, whether you share it with me or not is your own business, always think with your own head - I wish you good luck!
INDEX:DXY
by AnonymousTraderAcademy
2