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Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities,Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities, and Indices for the Period from September 23 to September 27, 2024 Introduction : Greetings, this is Mohamed Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert, presenting the weekly technical analysis for the most important currency pairs, commodities, and indices for the current week. In this analysis, we will review the key global economic events that will impact the financial markets, followed by a comprehensive technical analysis of the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices. Major Economic Events for the Week: • Monday, September 23: The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for both the manufacturing and services sectors will be released. The forecast indicates continued growth in the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors, signaling that the Federal Reserve has succeeded in controlling inflation. If the results are significantly stronger than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar and increase correctional pressures on gold. However, if the data is weaker than expected, gold prices may rise due to economic concerns. • Tuesday, September 24: The Consumer Confidence Index will be released, which is a crucial indicator of consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. Higher confidence could strengthen the dollar and press down on gold prices, while negative data may drive demand for gold as a safe haven due to growing fears of recession. • Wednesday, September 25: The New Home Sales report and Crude Oil Inventory report will be released. If new home sales improve, it may support the dollar and negatively affect gold. On the other hand, a sudden increase in oil inventories could put pressure on oil prices. • Thursday, September 26: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and Unemployment Claims report will be released. If the data shows stronger-than-expected growth, it may boost the dollar and pressure gold. An increase in jobless claims could weaken the dollar. • Friday, September 27: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, will be released. If the index shows a decline in inflation, it may boost gold prices due to a weakening dollar. Technical Analysis: Currency Pairs: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, and if it breaks the 100.500 level, we could see a decline to 99 and 97. The dollar will only recover if it exceeds the 102 level. EUR/USD: The pair is trying to resume its upward trend, and if it breaks the 1.12 level, we could see a rise towards 1.13 and 1.15. If the breakout fails, the pair may enter a corrective downtrend. GBP/USD: The pair remains in a positive scenario, and if it exceeds the 1.3054 level, we may see a rise towards 1.4 and 1.5. Failure to break this level could lead to a downward correction. USD/JPY: If the pair breaks the 144 yen level, we could see a rise towards 148 and 152. Failure to break this level will keep the pair under selling pressure. GBP/JPY: The pair, known as “The Beast,” is regaining some of its gains. Stability above the 190 yen level supports an upward move towards 195 and 200 yen. Failure to maintain this level could lead to a drop towards 184 yen. USD/CHF: The pair remains under pressure, and failure to break the 0.58100 level could see a decline towards 0.8400 and 0.8300. AUD/USD: If the pair fails to break the 0.68400 level, it may enter a downward correction towards 0.67500. NZD/USD: The pair is trading positively, and stability above 0.61850 supports an upward move towards 0.63 and 0.64. USD/CAD: The pair remains under pressure, and stability below the 1.3600 level could target 1.3500 and 1.3400. EUR/JPY: The pair is trying to regain positive momentum, and if it breaks the 162 yen level, we could see a rise towards 166 and 170 yen. EUR/GBP: The pair is nearing a key support level at 0.80750, and breaking it could enter the pair into a downward trend targeting 0.80200 and 0.79700. USD/TRY: Ongoing trading above the 34 lira level supports an upward trend, and we could see a rise towards 34.50 and 35.00. Failure to hold above 34 lira may lead to slight corrections. Commodities: Gold (XAU/USD): Gold is achieving strong gains due to economic and geopolitical developments. If it breaks the 2615 level, we may see a rise towards 2650 and 2690. Failure to break may lead to corrections towards 2590. Crude Oil (WTI): Oil is trading around the 71 level, and if it breaks this level, we may see a rise towards 74 and 78. Silver (XAG/USD): Stability above the 30.50 level supports an upward move towards 32 and 33.50. Failure to maintain this level could lead to declines. Natural Gas (NG): Stability above the 2.20 level supports an upward move towards 3 and 3.40. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bitcoin is maintaining its gains, and if it stays above the 60,000 level, we could see a rise towards 65,000, with potential targets at 72,000 and 80,000. Failure to maintain this level could push prices back below 60,000. Ethereum (ETH/USD): Ethereum is attempting to resume its gains. If it breaks the 2700 level, we may see a rise towards 3000 and 3300. Ripple (XRP/USD): Stability above the 0.55 level supports an upward move towards 0.65 and 0.80. Failure to maintain this level could lead to declines below 0.55. Indices: Dow Jones (DJIA): If the index breaks the 42,250 level, we could see a rise towards 43,440. Failure to achieve this could return the index to support levels around 41,600. S&P 500 (SPX): The index is approaching a critical support level at 5700. A break below this level could enter the index into a correction targeting 5550, while holding above 5700 could push the index towards 5850 and 6000. Nasdaq (NASDAQ): Stability above the 19,250 level supports an upward move towards 20,000 and 21,500. Failure to hold this level may lead to minor corrections towards 19,000. Russell (Russell 2000): The index is approaching a key support level at 2225. Breaking this level could lead the index towards 2160 and 2090 in the coming trades. Holding above this level could support the upward trend once again. FTSE 100 (FTSE): A break below the 8200 level could return the index to bearish pressures towards 8050 and 7900. Stability above this level may return the index to an upward move targeting 8400 and 8600. DAX (DAX): Falling below the 18,800 level could lead to downward corrections towards 18,217 and 17,400. Returning above this level may push the index towards a new upward wave. CAC (CAC): Stability below the 7600 level could enter the index into a bearish wave targeting 7200 and lower. A return above 7600 may resume the positive trend. Nikkei (Nikkei): Stability above the 37,000 level supports an upward move towards 39,000 and 41,000. Failure to maintain this level may lead to minor corrections towards 36,500. Conclusion: Thank you for watching, and I invite you to interact with us by asking your questions about the financial markets. Don’t forget to like the video and subscribe for more updates. This analysis was prepared by Muhammad Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and we recommend keeping up with economic updates to make informed decisions.
TVC:DXY
by MohammedQais
Can DXY Stabilize at 99.50-100 Area Despite FED 50bp Cut? Dollar Index – DXY has turned bearish after the corrective rally stopped at 105.70-106, an important resistance area at the end of June. Since then, the price even accelerated lower through summer so it appears that a bearish impulse is in play, but with recent touch of a new swing low, DXY is possibly in fifth wave, so be aware of some support in weeks ahead. But closer look shows that there is still some room left for 99.50-100 area, but if this will occur and structure a wedge shape, then we should be aware of reversals, and new correction. So as said, the price could still see a bit more weakness into the 5th wave to fully complete this ending diagonal, but then dollar can turn for a new correction, considering that recent dollar weakness has been mainly driven by these rate cut expectations, so now that this 50bp cut has been done, the dollar may stabilize due to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. However, any rally will be temporary, as I think that dollar has room for much more weakness, bu ideally after another a-b-c recovery. 101.80 -102 is strong resistance. GH
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
DXY hit the 1W MA200 for the 1st time in 8 months! Will it hold?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) following the Fed's -0.50% Rate Cut, hit on Wednesday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 8 months (since the week of January 10 2024). This is obviously the strongest Support on a long-term basis and technically should attract the first wave of buying pressure. However, the multi-year pattern, being a Channel Up, suggests that given some more weeks it should break and go for a Higher Low (blue Arc). As you can see on this pattern, every time the 1W MA200 was tested during a Bearish Leg, it broke. The last two Bearish Legs initially made a dead-cat-bounce and then priced the Low just above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. The 1W RSI in particular provides very useful insight on this, as on the first oversold (below 30.00) Low it makes the bounce and then on the second RSI low, which is a Higher Low i.e. a Bullish Divergence, the price bottoms and rebounds long-term. As a result, with the 1W RSI bouncing on the 30.00 oversold barrier, we expect the price to rebound for a few weeks and then resume the downtrend towards the 1.236 and the bottom of the multi-year Channel Up. Our Target is 97.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
Bullish Bitcoin/Crypto and Bearish DXY Analysis In this scenario, a bearish DXY aligns with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, which has historically shown an inverse correlation. Let's break down the analysis based on this perspective: 1. Bearish DXY Outlook Support Breakdown Risk: The DXY is currently sitting at the strong support zone between 100-102 (blue area). However, if the U.S. Dollar Index fails to hold this support and breaks downward, the next key level of support lies around 98, as indicated by the descending yellow diagonal arrow. A breakdown below 100 could accelerate the DXY's decline, signaling a bearish trend. Lower Highs and Potential Reversal: The overall trend shows the DXY making lower highs, and the potential move downward suggests weakening dollar strength, which is bearish for the DXY. Timing of Key Breakdown: If the DXY does not hold this support, the next major support line, marked for Mon 07 Oct 24, could come into play, driving the index lower toward 98. 2. Bullish Bitcoin and Crypto Market Inverse Correlation with DXY: Historically, Bitcoin and the crypto market have an inverse relationship with the DXY. When the U.S. dollar weakens (bearish DXY), capital tends to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Accumulation at Key Levels: As the DXY enters a bearish phase, Bitcoin’s price (blue line) shows strong upward momentum, with the potential for further gains. The green arrows highlight past instances where the DXY’s decline correlated with Bitcoin's strong bullish moves. The same pattern is projected now, with the blue arrow indicating a possible strong bullish leg for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Projection: With the DXY breaking below support and entering a bearish trend, Bitcoin could aim for new highs as investor sentiment shifts away from traditional safe-haven assets (like the U.S. dollar) and into riskier, high-reward assets such as crypto. Crypto Market Strength: A weakening dollar typically leads to increased interest in alternative assets, such as gold, Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies. As inflation concerns rise and the dollar loses strength, the crypto market becomes an attractive hedge, especially for institutional investors. 3. Long-Term Projection Bitcoin’s Upper Trendline: The chart shows a potential continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish rally if the DXY continues its decline. If Bitcoin follows historical trends, breaking through the current resistance levels, we could see significant price appreciation, pushing Bitcoin towards new highs. Altcoins Surge: As Bitcoin leads the charge, the broader crypto market typically follows. A bearish DXY could spur interest in altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and other crypto sectors, as capital flows into the space looking for high returns amid a weakening U.S. dollar. Conclusion: Bearish DXY: If the DXY fails to hold support and moves lower, the U.S. dollar’s decline will be a strong catalyst for a bullish Bitcoin and broader crypto market rally. Bullish Crypto: This scenario points to a favorable environment for Bitcoin and altcoins, driven by weakening dollar strength and increasing interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class. Expect significant gains in Bitcoin and major crypto assets if the DXY breaks down from its current levels.
TVC:DXY
by Yassine_Houd