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DXY: Still bullish but be ready to sell at the right price.The U.S. Dollar Index is heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.833, MACD = 0.380, ADX = 45.822) as it has been rising strongly since the Sep 27th Low, not over its 1D MA50. The price action is identical to the rebound that was initiated on December 28th 2023 and reached the 0.618 Fibonacci level only to get rejected there back to the 0.5 Fib. Consequently we will remain bullish, aiming at the 0.618 Fib and the 1D MA200 (TP = 103.850) and then switch to shorting aiming a little higher than the 0.5 Fib (TP = 102.500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXY
by InvestingScope
US Interest Rates: Impact on Global Markets and StrategiesUS interest rates are a cornerstone of the global financial system, wielding significant influence over markets worldwide. Set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), these rates dictate the cost of borrowing, the return on savings, and overall liquidity in the economy. However, the impact of US interest rates goes far beyond American borders, affecting currency pairs, stock markets, and global investment strategies. This article explores how changes in US interest rates shape global markets, including their effect on currencies like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, stock prices, and the strategies investors can adopt to navigate rate hikes and cuts. The Role of US Interest Rates in Global Markets US interest rates, specifically the federal funds rate, are a crucial tool for managing the US economy, but they also play a critical role in global financial stability. When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it signals shifts in economic conditions, such as inflation control or economic stimulation, to investors and central banks worldwide. Effective federal funds rate - Bank of New York The influence of US interest rates extends beyond domestic policy. A higher US interest rate often attracts global capital, strengthening the US dollar as investors seek better returns. This shift in investment flows impacts foreign currencies, stock markets, and global economic growth, making US monetary policy a key factor in global financial strategies. For example, a rise in US interest rates can strengthen the dollar and increase borrowing costs for emerging markets holding dollar-denominated debt. On the other hand, lower US interest rates can boost global liquidity, prompting investment in riskier assets like foreign equities or bonds. As such, US interest rates serve as a global benchmark, shaping monetary policy decisions and influencing investment strategies worldwide. Inflation and US Interest Rates Inflation is a central consideration in the Fed’s interest rate decisions. When inflation rises, the Fed typically raises interest rates to cool the economy by making borrowing more expensive, which in turn curbs consumer spending and business investment. Conversely, when inflation is low or the economy is struggling, the Fed cuts interest rates to encourage borrowing, boost spending, and stimulate economic growth. The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) dropped during the coronavirus pandemic despite the Fed raising interest rates. However, the relationship between inflation and interest rates is a balancing act. If rates are cut too much or inflation rises while rates remain low, purchasing power can be eroded, causing instability in financial markets. In the global context, rising inflation in the US can weaken the dollar, affecting currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, while inflation-related volatility in commodities like oil and gold can ripple across global markets. For global investors, tracking US inflation trends and the Fed’s response is crucial for understanding potential shifts in exchange rates and market stability. Impact on Currency Pairs US interest rates have a direct impact on the US dollar’s value relative to other major currencies. When the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar usually strengthens because higher rates offer better returns on dollar-denominated investments. This increase in demand for the dollar causes currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY to move in favor of the dollar, making these currencies weaker relative to the USD. On the flip side, when the Fed lowers interest rates, the dollar typically weakens as investors look for higher returns in other currencies. As a result, other currencies gain strength relative to the USD, leading to significant shifts in global currency markets. Moreover, interest rate differentials—the gap between interest rates in different countries—create opportunities for strategies like the carry trade, where investors borrow in a currency with low interest rates (such as the Japanese yen) and invest in a currency offering higher yields (like the US dollar). These strategies add further volatility to currency markets, especially when central banks adjust their policies unexpectedly. Impact on Global Stock Markets US interest rates have a profound influence on global stock markets. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, yields on US Treasury bonds increase, making them more attractive to investors seeking safer returns. This can lead to a shift away from equities, especially in riskier markets like emerging economies, and into bonds, causing stock prices to fall. US Government Bonds 5 Years US Government Bonds 2 Years United State Interest Rate Higher interest rates can also hurt sectors that are sensitive to borrowing costs, such as technology and consumer discretionary, which rely heavily on debt to finance growth. In contrast, financial stocks, particularly banks, often benefit from rising interest rates as they can charge more for loans, improving their profitability. Conversely, when the Fed cuts interest rates, borrowing costs decrease, which can lead to a rally in stock markets. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary tend to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment, as companies find it cheaper to borrow and expand. At the same time, dividend-paying stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs) become more attractive as investors seek better returns than those offered by bonds. Possible Market Reactions to a Fed Rate Cut A Federal Reserve rate cut can trigger several reactions across global markets: --Stock Market Rally: Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses, potentially boosting economic activity and stock prices. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary often benefit, while investors may also flock to dividend-paying stocks due to their relatively higher yields. --Weaker US Dollar: A rate cut usually weakens the dollar, as lower rates make the currency less attractive to investors. This depreciation can benefit exporters and companies with significant foreign revenues but can hurt importers. --Increased Inflation Risk: While rate cuts stimulate growth, they can also fuel inflation if demand exceeds supply. Investors may turn to inflation-protected assets like commodities or inflation-linked bonds. --Emerging Markets: Lower US interest rates reduce borrowing costs for emerging markets, encouraging investment in their higher-yielding assets. However, a weaker dollar can lead to currency appreciation in these markets, impacting their export competitiveness. --Bond Market Dynamics: A Fed rate cut can lead to lower yields on short-term US government bonds, pushing investors to seek better returns in long-term bonds or riskier assets. Strategies for Managing Interest Rate Volatility In periods of fluctuating interest rates, investors must adjust their strategies to protect portfolios and capitalize on new opportunities. During Interest Rate Hikes: --Shift to Bonds and Fixed-Income Assets: As interest rates rise, bonds, particularly short-term ones, offer higher yields, making them an attractive addition to portfolios. --Focus on Financial Stocks: Banks and financial institutions benefit from higher rates, as they can charge more for loans, increasing their profits. --Reduce Exposure to High-Growth Stocks: High-growth sectors, like technology, are more sensitive to rising borrowing costs and may underperform during rate hikes. During Interest Rate Cuts: --Increase Equity Exposure: Rate cuts often lead to stock market rallies, particularly in growth-oriented sectors like technology. Increasing equity exposure during rate cuts can help capture gains. --Look for Dividend-Paying Stocks: In a low-rate environment, dividend-paying stocks become more attractive as investors seek yield. --Consider Real Estate Investments: Lower rates reduce borrowing costs, making real estate and REITs more appealing as an investment. Managing Volatility in Your Portfolio To navigate the volatility caused by interest rate changes, diversification is essential. A well-diversified portfolio, spanning stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, can help mitigate the impact of rate fluctuations on overall returns. Currency hedging is another key tool for managing volatility. When US interest rates rise, the dollar strengthens, potentially eroding the value of foreign-denominated investments. Hedging strategies using currency futures or options can protect against adverse currency movements. Lastly, a focus on defensive stocks—such as utilities and consumer staples—can provide stability in uncertain times. These companies tend to have stable earnings and are less affected by interest rate changes. Conclusion US interest rates wield significant influence over global markets, affecting everything from currency pairs to stock prices. Investors must stay informed about the Fed's actions and adapt their strategies to reflect the current interest rate environment. By incorporating risk management tools like diversification, currency hedging, and a focus on defensive stocks, investors can better protect their portfolios and capitalize on opportunities that arise from interest rate fluctuations.
TVC:DXYEducation
by FOREXN1
3
DXY: A Bullish Outlook for the USDThe US Dollar Index (DXY), a critical gauge of the dollar's performance against a basket of major currencies, recently encountered a significant demand area at 100.53. This pivotal point has historically acted as a fulcrum, influencing the currency's trajectory. Interestingly, this interaction coincides with a notable downturn in the commitment of traders (COT) report for retail traders, suggesting a pivotal shift in market sentiment. Retail Traders Retreat Amidst Bullish Signals Retail traders, often seen as contrarian indicators, have shown a marked decrease in their positions at this juncture, reaching notably low levels. This trend typically suggests a lack of confidence among smaller market participants, which can often precede a reversal when combined with other factors. It's crucial to consider these dynamics within the broader context of market sentiment and economic indicators. Institutional Insights: Fund Managers and Commercials Buying the Dip Conversely, the behavior of more significant market players such as fund managers and commercial traders provides a stark contrast. Fund managers have maintained or increased their bullish positions, demonstrating a robust confidence in the strength of the USD. Simultaneously, commercial traders, known for their strategic depth and market knowledge, have started accumulating positions, "buying the dip." This accumulation by commercials is often a reliable indicator of foundational strength in the market, suggesting that these savvy traders anticipate a forthcoming rise in the dollar's value. Technical and Seasonal Factors Align for a Bullish Scenario From a technical perspective, the DXY has shown signs of being oversold. When a financial instrument reaches such conditions, it often suggests that the selling momentum might be overextended, priming the market for a bullish reversal. This technical signal, in conjunction with the identified demand area, provides a compelling case for an impending upward movement. Moreover, seasonality also plays a critical role in the dynamics of currency markets. Historical data and patterns can influence trader expectations and market movements significantly. For the DXY, seasonal trends around this time of year have frequently aligned with strengthening trends, reinforcing the current analysis that an uptick could be on the horizon. Looking Forward: A Bullish Forecast for the USD Considering these multifaceted insights—from the COT data illustrating a shift away from retail bullishness to the strategic accumulations by institutional players, and the supportive technical and seasonal indicators—the stage is set for a potential long-term increase in the value of the USD. Traders and investors would be wise to monitor these developments closely, as the confluence of these factors could lead to significant opportunities in the forex markets. The current landscape of the DXY presents a textbook scenario where understanding the interplay between different trader behaviors and technical indicators can provide a strategic advantage. As we move forward, keeping a pulse on these shifts will be crucial for capitalizing on the anticipated upward trajectory of the USD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
3
DXY Index Sees Setback Amid Soft Labor and Inflation Data but..The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced daily losses yesterday, following the release of softer-than-expected labor and inflation data. Despite these immediate setbacks, the broader outlook for the US economy remains positive, with recent indicators highlighting a level of growth that continues to exceed forecasts. The market’s reaction to the data, however, has raised questions about whether current valuations are overly optimistic. From a technical standpoint, the US Dollar is still trading above a key supply area, where we initiated a bullish position. This level has proven to be a crucial support zone, and as long as the price remains above it, the outlook continues to favor further gains. The recent dip in the DXY may have been triggered by weaker-than-anticipated data, but the underlying strength of the US economy suggests that this could be a temporary correction rather than a reversal of the broader uptrend. On the economic front, the US economy is still performing robustly. Recent data reveals that growth is outpacing expectations, driven by resilient consumer spending and stable industrial output. While the labor and inflation numbers may have cooled market sentiment in the short term, they are unlikely to derail the broader trend of economic expansion. With this strong economic backdrop, we maintain our bullish stance on the US Dollar. The softer data is not enough to overshadow the ongoing strength of the US economy, and we anticipate further upside potential for the dollar in the weeks ahead. While market valuations may currently reflect some degree of optimism, the fundamental outlook supports the case for continued appreciation in the US Dollar Index. As traders and investors weigh the short-term data against long-term trends, it is crucial to stay mindful of key technical levels and economic indicators. The recent pullback in the DXY may present an opportunity to reinforce bullish positions, particularly if the dollar continues to hold above critical support areas. Overall, we remain confident in the strength of the US Dollar and expect further gains as economic conditions evolve. ✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
1
DXY (US Dollar Index) Ideas on Daily Time FrameHere's my analysis of the DXY on the daily timeframe: After a significant decline in the US Dollar Index over the past few weeks, it has recently formed a bullish impulse pattern, suggesting a potential reversal upwards. The price has broken through a key resistance level, indicating a strong bullish momentum. I anticipate the market to undergo a minor correction before continuing its upward trend. What do you think? Comment your thoughts.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonathanethan911
DXY analysis based on ICT concepts and candle scienceHello, greatest community Since this is my first post, I sincerely hope you find it useful. I am going to start with a top-down analysis. First, based on the monthly chart. Currently, we are in the monthly SIBI, a reversal area. What are we supposed to look for next? A drop in momentum to the annual bisi target during the following months Weekly Chart It's Friday, the last day of the week. What can I see in this area right now? 1. It looks like we are about to create a weekly fair value gap, which we will trade from the following week in order to reach the next weekly SIBI shown on the chart. 2. On the other hand, we might make a BAG and search for the entry on the daily chart. NB: I will post more information this weekend if I find someone who is interested.
TVC:DXYLong
by bojmarley88_bm
1
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support level which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 103.03 1st Support: 102.36 1st Resistance: 103.67 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
1
Hotter-than-Expected CPI Prints: A Potential Catalyst for DXY an Introduction The release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is a highly anticipated event in financial markets, often influencing investor sentiment, currency valuations, and risk appetite. A hotter-than-expected CPI print, indicating higher-than-anticipated inflation, has significant implications for monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate cuts. This article explores how such a scenario could strengthen calls to halt or even reverse rate cuts, potentially bolstering the US Dollar Index (DXY) and leading to increased risk aversion. Understanding CPI and Its Impact on Monetary Policy CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which central banks closely monitor to assess the overall health of an economy. When CPI rises above the target inflation rate, it suggests that prices are increasing at a faster pace than desired, potentially eroding purchasing power and destabilizing the economy. Central banks often use interest rates as a tool to manage inflation. By raising interest rates, they make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic activity and reduce demand for goods and services, ultimately putting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, lowering interest rates can stimulate economic growth but may also lead to higher inflation if demand outpaces supply. The Implications of a Hotter-than-Expected CPI Print If a CPI report comes in hotter than expected, it suggests that inflation is running higher than anticipated. This could lead to increased concerns among central bankers and investors about the potential for inflation to spiral out of control. In response, central banks may feel compelled to pause or even reverse their monetary easing policies. The prospect of higher interest rates can have a significant impact on financial markets. When central banks raise interest rates, it often leads to a stronger domestic currency relative to other currencies. This is because higher interest rates make the domestic currency more attractive to investors seeking higher returns on their investments. In the case of the US Dollar, a stronger DXY can have implications for global financial markets. A stronger dollar can make imports cheaper for US consumers but can also make exports more expensive for US businesses, potentially hurting economic growth. Additionally, a stronger dollar can put downward pressure on commodity prices, which can impact the profitability of commodity-producing countries and industries. The Potential Impact on Risk Aversion A hotter-than-expected CPI print and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy can also lead to increased risk aversion among investors. When investors become more cautious about the outlook for the economy, they may be less willing to take on riskier investments, such as stocks and emerging market bonds. This can lead to a sell-off in these asset classes, as investors seek to shift their portfolios to safer, more liquid assets like US Treasury bonds. Conclusion A hotter-than-expected CPI print can have significant implications for financial markets, particularly if it leads to a change in monetary policy. By strengthening calls to halt or reverse rate cuts, such a scenario could bolster the US Dollar Index and increase risk aversion. Investors should closely monitor CPI releases and their potential impact on central bank decisions and market sentiment.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
Dollar Index (DXY) levels to watch ahead of CPIShortly, US CPI will be released at 8:30am EDT or 13:30 BST. Headline CPI is expected to print +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y (vs. 2.5% last) Core CPI is seen at +0.2% or +3.2% y/y (unchanged from prev reading). The inflation data will need to be some distance away from expectations to change the course of the dollar, which has been on the rise in the last week and a half. Following last week’s formation of big bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart, the dollar index has remined on the front foot so far this week, amid continued buying of the dollar thanks to that big beat on the NFP data. At the time of writing, the DXY was holding comfortably above the broken bearish trend and support in the 101.90-102.15 region. It was also above short-term support around 102.65-70 area, which is now the first line of defense for the bulls. They will need to defend this level to keep the bullish momentum alive. The next big area of resistance is still quite far around 103.65 to 104.00 (where the 200-day average meets a former pivotal zone), meaning there is further room for the dollar rally before it potentially fades. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY Is Very Bearish! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 102.931. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 101.163 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
3
DXY Set for a Retracement Towards Sell-Side Liquidity - OTE FVGDXY is showing clear signs of a retracement to the daily sell-side liquidity level around 100.215. Price wicked into a higher timeframe (HTF) daily order block near 102.860, and then closed below, signaling bearish momentum. Keep in mind, upcoming high-impact news could affect price action. If price doesn’t respect the order block, it may react to the Fair Value Gap (FVG) around the optimal trade entry (OTE) zone. DYOR
TVC:DXYShort
by INSIDER_INTEL