DOLLAR INDEX DXY going below 100? cmp : 101.344
looking for 96 levels in upcoming few weeks.
looking to stabilize around 95-97 for rest of the year.
DXY trade ideas
15 min entry DXY on BEARISH DAILY TFabove chart (daily)
- price move aggressively downward (BEAR BIAS) to swipe ERL
- followed by HIGH QUALITY FVG WHY?
CONDITION 1: TAKING LOW LIQUIDITY CONDITION 2 : STRAIGHT 3 CANDLE MOVES; CONDITION 3, CLOSING BELOW IFVG
below chart (15 mins)
- Price did manipulation taking upside liquidity
- Followed by bearish FVG
- I am waiting inside 0,5-0,618 being swiped and closing below 0,5 fib line
- entry SHORT toward lowest internal liquidity zone (iFVG) or creates another LOW
DXY - USD overview 04.09.2024Will we see such move on #Dxy and price to drop down to 97.5? or we will see the drop to that area (97.5) straight away without prior move to the upside?
The Beginning of DXY DeclineThe DXY (US Dollar Index) is showing strong signs of entering a downward trend. The attached chart reinforces this view, highlighting the development of Wave 4, which is likely nearing completion. A continuation of the decline in Wave 5 is expected, in line with technical analysis and external factors.
Wave Structure: The chart clearly shows the DXY in a corrective pattern, with Wave 4 approaching its peak around the 0.618 retracement level at 102.030. Once this wave concludes, we can anticipate the continuation of the downward trend towards the completion of Wave 5, likely targeting levels below 100.
Bearish Channel: The DXY remains within a well-defined descending channel, indicating sustained selling pressure. This suggests that the overall momentum is bearish, with further declines expected as the channel holds.
External Factors: Slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth, particularly in key areas such as manufacturing and employment, has weakened the dollar’s outlook. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt rate hikes are dampening investor confidence in the dollar.
In conclusion, both technical analysis and external economic indicators suggest the DXY is likely to continue its decline. Traders should remain cautious as Wave 5 approaches, with potential downside targets below 100 as the dollar weakens further.
Will the dollar index break its dynamic resistance?According to the resistance in the range of 101.880, after breaking this area, you can expect to climb up to the range of 102.227 and 102.599. Otherwise, after breaking its current support in the range of 101.500, we can expect this index to drop to the range of 101.170 and 100.701.
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 101.675.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 102.148 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.769
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Pre-BoC interest rate decision4th September
DXY: Still in consolidation. Looking for downside, needs to break 101.50 (23.6%), could trade down to 101.15
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6165 SL 20 TP 60
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6750 SL 20 TP 70
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3160 SL 30 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1080 SL 25 TP 65
USDJPY: Sell 144.70 SL 40 TP 110
USDCHF: Sell 0.8450 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Sell 1.3580 SL 30 TP 60
Gold: Watch 2480-2470 support area,
If held look for bounce, broken could trade down to 2440
Check the trend It is expected that after some fluctuation, the continuation of the upward trend will be formed up to the specified resistance levels. Then there will be a possibility of changing the trend
DXY is approaching resistance with potential for a reversalFundamental Perspective:
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in Aug but fell short of the 47.5 forecast. This marks the 21st monthly contraction in US factory activity over the past 22 months. This persistent weakness highlights the strain of high Fed interest rates on the manufacturing sector.
The focus remains on the US jobs data, where further softening of the labor market could bolster expectations for a 50 bps rate cut and weigh on the dollar.
Technical Perspective:
The dollar pared recent losses but remained within the descending channel, with the price approaching the 102.50 resistance. If DXY regains its bearish momentum below 102.50, a further decline to retest the 100.60 swing low might occur. MACD is also holding below the zero threshold, supporting the potential for further downside. Conversely, if DXY breaks above the 102.50 resistance and channel's upper bound, the index could extend its gains to the 103.80 resistance.
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices 4/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - 4/9/2024
Introduction
Welcome, I’m Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, bringing you my detailed outlook on the most significant currency pairs, commodities, and financial indices for today, Wednesday, September 4, 2024.
First, let’s review the key economic data expected today, which could impact price movements upon release:
• Tuesday, September 3 Session: The release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Manufacturing PMI issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The figures came in below expectations, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity and weakness in the U.S. economy. This decline could negatively impact the U.S. dollar, as markets might interpret this data as a signal that the Federal Reserve may adopt more accommodative monetary policies and move away from tightening measures to support the economy and avoid recession.
• Wednesday, September 4 Session: The U.S. job openings report is scheduled to be released at 5:00 PM Mecca time.
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
We observe that the U.S. Dollar Index is trading under pressure near the previous closing level. Trading below the 102 level keeps the index within a bearish trend channel, making it vulnerable to further decline towards the 100.3 and 99 levels in the medium term. The dollar will not experience positive corrections unless it surpasses the 102 level.
EUR/USD Pair Analysis:
The pair remains stable above the key support level at 1.1000. Attempts are ongoing to end the corrections and rise towards 1.1200. This bullish scenario will remain valid unless the price breaks below the 1.1000 level.
GBP/USD Pair Analysis:
The pair is attempting to break below the 1.3100 level. If prices succeed in breaking this level, the pair will enter a downward corrective wave targeting 1.2970 and 1.2850.
USD/JPY Pair Analysis:
The pair is attempting to return to the downward trend. Breaking the 145 yen level and moving below the 55-day moving average may end the positive corrections and return the pair to the downward trend targeting 140 yen.
USD/CHF Pair Analysis:
The pair is hovering around the previous closing level. A return below the 0.8510 level could push the pair back into a negative trend, targeting 0.8370 and 0.8240.
AUD/USD Pair Analysis:
The pair is stabilizing below the 55-day moving average and below the previous closing price. Breaking the 0.6670 level could push the pair back down towards 0.6500.
NZD/USD Pair Analysis:
The pair is declining and stabilizing below the 0.6225 level. Remaining below this resistance could lead to a continuation of the downward trend towards 0.6100 and 0.6000.
USD/CAD Pair Analysis:
The pair is attempting to resume the upward trend and end the corrections. The pair will only succeed in this by breaking through the 1.3600 level, potentially targeting 1.3750 and 1.3950.
GBP/JPY Pair Analysis:
The pair remains under downward pressure. It will not be freed from this pressure unless it breaks above the 196 yen level, which could restore the upward momentum towards 202 and 208 yen.
EUR/JPY Pair Analysis:
The pair is trading under pressure. Remaining below 164 yen could lead to a continuation of the downward trend towards 158 and 153 yen.
EUR/GBP Pair Analysis:
The pair is trying to regain upward momentum in the short term. Surpassing the 55-day moving average and climbing above the 0.8450 level could lead to a rise targeting 0.8575 and 0.8650.
USD/TRY Pair Analysis:
The pair is attempting to end corrections and regain upward momentum. A return above the 34 lira level could restore gains and push prices towards 34.50 and 35.00 lira.
BTC/USD Analysis:
Bitcoin is under pressure. Trading below the 60,000-dollar level may keep it under downward threats towards 52,000 and 44,000 dollars. Surpassing the 60,000-dollar level is necessary to relieve Bitcoin from selling pressure.
ETH/USD Analysis:
Ethereum is still under pressure. Staying below the 2700-dollar level may lead to a continuation of the downward trend towards 2100 and 1800 dollars.
XRP/USD Analysis:
Ripple is hovering around the critical support level of 0.55 dollars. Breaking this level will lead to a continuation of the downward trend towards 0.48 and 0.44 dollars.
Gold Analysis (XAU/USD):
Gold is trading above the upward trend line. Staying above the 2460-dollar level keeps the bullish scenario intact, with the possibility of reaching new levels if the 2520-dollar level is breached. Breaking the 2460-dollar level may push gold back into deep corrections towards 2400 and 2325 dollars.
Crude Oil Analysis (WTI):
Crude oil is trading under pressure. Breaking the 73-dollar per barrel level may lead to a price drop towards 70 and 67 dollars.
Silver Analysis (XAG/USD):
Silver is showing negative behavior. A return above the 29-dollar level is necessary to maintain positivity, while a decline could target 27.5 and 26 dollars.
Natural Gas Analysis (NG):
Natural gas is at a critical psychological barrier at 2.20 dollars. Exceeding this level could lead to gains towards 2.40 and 2.60 dollars, while failing to break it could push prices back down towards 2.00 dollars.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Analysis:
A price drop to the 41,000-point level reinforces the negative scenario towards the 40,000-point level. Stability above the 41,000-point level is crucial to avoid further decline.
S&P 500 (SPX) Analysis:
The index is approaching a significant support area at 5500 points. Breaking this support could lead the S&P 500 down to 5300 points.
NASDAQ Analysis:
Stability above the 19,250-point level enhances the chances of rising towards 24,000 and 25,000 points. Breaking the 19,250 level could lead to a decline towards 18,250 points.
Russell 2000 (RUSSELL 2000) Analysis:
The index is declining, approaching a crucial support at 2150 points. Breaking this level could lead to further declines.
FTSE 100 (FTSE 100) Analysis:
The index is trading below the 8400-point level. Stability above this level is necessary to regain positive momentum.
DAX (DAX) Analysis:
The index is attempting to break a significant support level at 18,750 points. Breaking this support could lead to a free fall towards 18,200 points.
CAC 40 (CAC 40) Analysis:
The index is trying to return to the downward trend. Stability below the 7600-point level may push the index towards further declines to 7200 points.
Nikkei 225 (NIKKEI 225) Analysis:
The index is declining with the return of yen strength. Stability above the 37,000-point level is necessary to maintain a positive scenario, while breaking this level could lead to a decline towards 35,000 and 33,000 points.
In Conclusion:
We have reached the end of today’s daily technical analysis. Thank you for following along, and we wish you a successful trading day. Stay safe.
This analysis was prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advisable to stay updated with economic developments to make informed decisions.
Could price bounce from here?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could reverse to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 101.52
1st Support: 101.04
1st Resistance: 102.14
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Accumulating EURUSDWith the forthcoming rates cut , we can expect the USD to weaken, falling below the 100 mark and this means the EURUSD pair should rally towards the 1.15 price level.
Please DYODD
DXY Analysis: Gap Down, Fill, & Bearish ContinuationThe DXY is setting up for a potential gap down which could lead to a quick fill into nearby resistance.
The index's recent price action reflects mounting downside pressure, and a rejection at resistance would likely confirm the bearish trend. Traders should watch for a reversal signal at the resistance level to enter short positions, with targets aimed at breaking recent lows
DXY Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 101.500 zone, DXY was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 101.500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
$ RATE CUT IN THE AIR, WILL IT BOUNCE BEFORE THE DESCENT?The recent decline in the U.S. dollar can be attributed to several economic factors. Firstly, recent inflation data indicates that inflation in the United States is slowing down. The annual inflation rate for June 2024 was 3.0%, down from previous months. This slowdown has strengthened expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Investors now anticipate a rate cut in September, possibly followed by another cut in November or December, which tends to weaken a country's currency.
Despite positive data from the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2024, the dollar continued to fall. The PPI showed a 0.1% year-over-year increase, with a 0.1% rise in goods and a 0.2% rise in services, both better than analysts' expectations.
The critical question now is whether the dollar will rebound before further declines. We are in a crucial zone, and a short-term rise might occur before any further drop, but much depends on Powell's speech scheduled for Monday. If the Federal Reserve Chair hints at a rate cut in September, the dollar could take another hit. Conversely, if Powell does not confirm this expectation, the dollar might benefit from the positive PPI data and rise temporarily.
Be careful!
Weekly Outlook Sep 2-6 $DXYTVC:DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on TVC:DXY still on the table.
Dollar strength until... ?DXY is currently testing previous local resistance as support around 101.25. Losing support could mean a test of 4HR 50MA or 100.5 area. Holding support and clearing 101.5 could mean an attempt at 101.85.
DXY STRUCTUREAs we approach NFP, using market structure, prices are printing bullish movements and we will only be looking out for prices to get into the 15 Min OB before we can look for further confirmations before we can look for sell-offs, for now we exercise patience and sit on our hands and wait. do well to like share and follow and what ever trading style you use do well to not trade against the trend flow with it. use this and work with other correlated pairs that moves alongside DXY.
Dollar Index - 5 Weeks Of Risk-On Conditions. 100 Is Near...Higher time frame biases are important in scenarios like this as this week has clearly shown love to the monthly Sellside liquidity pool down at 100.617 before closing just shy of the area.
There in unfinished business at this area with 100.427 also being a point of interest. This does not mean i am expecting a closure for the week as we could see a sharp retracement coming to the end of next weeks trading.
Further risk on scenario for Dollar Index will present continued long opportunities for certain FX pairs and stock index pairs + commodities
