#dxy wave c #elliottwave long 26Jul24 #bmgih #btcusd #goldThis count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice.
DXY trade ideas
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 101.502.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 100.706 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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$DXY | SilverEdge Insights |Technical Confluences:
Price action is in Oversold conditions in the Daily and Weekly Timeframe. Likely to see some consolidation of positioning here.
Price action broke out of an Upward Sloping Parallel Channel and cleared itself out of the that Interest Zone too. Likely will see a test to re-enter that Channel due to Oversold conditions.
Elliot wave count shows it is trying to compete Wave C (expected target would be to 71% Fibo Extension levels - possible to test the 100% Fibo level)
A new Downward Sloping Parallel Channel is in play now and Price action needs to see it break the mid of the Channel to see a substantial move downwards
Fundamental Confluences:
With the expected cuts, market started unwinding their long USD positions and it is reflected in the TVC:DXY
The extent of Wave C will really depend on how quick and reactive is the FED in cutting rates (the higher chances of 50bps cuts; the likelier we will see USD get sold.
Building into next week, we are likely to see some traders cover their short USD positions as they size down before NFP data.
However, if there is any gyration on the geopolitical front or US elections, it is possible to see the TVC:DXY reverse back to the top of the Downward Sloping Parallel Channel and top out at the Interest Zone area again
Why the USD is about to rally... See chart below please.
I would not necessarily listen to certain You-Tubers who write-off important momentum indicators like Stochastics & RSI.
My observations of both is that they are wonderful at telling me what is overbought & oversold. When a commodity, currency or stock is in either of these phases, massive & fast swings in price can occur as price comes out of the overbought (shorting) and oversold (buying) conditions.
The timeframe of the Stochastic and RSI which I've noticed has the most power and punch with respect to the above is the Weekly but sometimes the Weekly & Daily & 4HR RSI/Stochastics cross-up (x-up on 30/20 respectively) on their zones (buy) or cross-down (x-down 70/80 respectively) on their zones (short-sell). You really need to see the indicators tick-up (buy) or tick-down (sell) firmly through their respective zones (RSI 30/70) STOCH 20/80).
The following chart is the Weekly for the USDX. The RSI looks to be really getting under price & packing a big momentum-punch upwards soon. Plus the Stochastics Weekly is looking to cross up on its 20 zone at the same time. When they cross-up and if the Daily simultaneously crosses up it will provide a lot of upward price movement in USD and its index USDX.
I have been saying for about a week now that a rally is coming for the USD. This chart is the confirmation.
DXY - Looking to Big PictureWhen we look back, when Trump first came, Dxy showed a 5.5% increase, Dxy goes to 103.5. And Trump Dxy is too expensive, the dollar is too expensive, it should fall, the statements started. Then Dxy's 14% decrease went to 88.5. Now Dxy is around 102.
I bought it directly as a fractal from August 15, 2016. If Dxy comes to around 104 until the election, the rapid increase with Trump's arrival corresponds to 110s. It has been an expected area for a long time and when Trump Dxy is at 110s, similarly, if the decrease starts with him saying the dollar is too expensive, it goes to 94s, fractal.
Here, my hopes begin and I say that it is still expensive at those levels, we will go down to 86s. This means a 4-year never-ending mega bull.
I applied the same fractal to the euro, and the much-anticipated 1.02s are here again. If I can get a fund, I will look for swing shorts at 1.12s. The fractal and events looked pretty good to me. It also fit the channel nicely.
FX:EURUSD
Analysis of the Dollar Index by the Mallicast team.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recently managed to break its previous high, indicating a relative strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies. This upward move could be attributed to various factors, such as strong economic data, expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, or volatility in global markets. However, following this increase, the Dollar Index is expected to enter a range-bound phase in early next month, oscillating within a specific price range. This consolidation period may occur due to profit-taking by traders, a lack of new strong catalysts, or uncertainty regarding the future direction of monetary and economic policies. Therefore, traders and analysts should closely monitor upcoming economic and political developments to make informed decisions for their positions in the market.
Analysis of the Dollar Index by the Mallicast team.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recently managed to break its previous high, indicating a relative strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies. This upward move could be attributed to various factors, such as strong economic data, expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, or volatility in global markets. However, following this increase, the Dollar Index is expected to enter a range-bound phase in early next month, oscillating within a specific price range. This consolidation period may occur due to profit-taking by traders, a lack of new strong catalysts, or uncertainty regarding the future direction of monetary and economic policies. Therefore, traders and analysts should closely monitor upcoming economic and political developments to make informed decisions for their positions in the market.
the trend is changingThe euro was doing great but now we can see that the trend is changing and the dollar is moving higher. So we can expect that the euro is moving down and is going to make lower lows
Correction It is expected that the current upward trend will end in the current resistance range and we will see the beginning of the downward trend
A lower timeframe idea for the dollar (Directional Bias)Still holding the same sentiments. The decline in price on the dollar (& a rise in price on the negatively correlated markets)
Trade (Directional) Idea for the dollar in the following week(s)Liquidity has been swept on the higher timeframe allowing the next draw on liquidity to be the Sellside of the curve.
We shall witness a MSS before we can confirm the MMSM to be in play.
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices30/8/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - 30/8/2024
Introduction
Welcome, I am Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert. Today, I will provide you with an in-depth analysis of the key currency pairs, commodities, and financial indices. On this Friday, August 30, 2024.
Key Economic Data for Today:
Before we dive into the technical and economic analysis, let’s review the key economic data scheduled for release today, which may impact price movements:
• 12:00 PM (Makkah Time): Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI).
• 3:30 PM (Makkah Time): U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (annual and monthly).
• 6:00 PM (Makkah Time): U.S. Federal Government Budget Balance.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis:
Despite positive U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected GDP, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure. The index is awaiting the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The DXY remains below the 102 level, favoring a bearish outlook targeting levels of 100.3 and 99. This bearish scenario will only be invalidated if the index breaks above the 102 level.
EUR/USD Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade under corrective downward pressure. As long as prices remain above the 1.1000 level, the pair retains a positive outlook, with all declines viewed as healthy corrections. This positive scenario will be invalidated only if the pair breaks below the 1.1000 level, potentially signaling a shift back to a bearish trend.
GBP/USD Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair maintains a positive bias as long as prices stay above the 1.3100 level, which supports a bullish outlook towards the 1.3250 and 1.3360 levels. This bullish scenario will be negated if the pair breaks below the 1.3100 level.
USD/JPY Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair is hovering around a critical level of 145 yen per U.S. dollar. Breaking above this level could lead to further gains towards 149 and 153 in the medium term. This bullish scenario will only be invalidated if prices fall back below the 145 level.
USD/CHF Analysis:
The USD/CHF pair remains under bearish pressure. Staying below the 0.8510 level supports a bearish outlook targeting 0.8370 and 0.8240. A bullish reversal will only occur if the pair breaks above the 0.8510 level.
AUD/USD Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair maintains a positive stance as long as prices stay above 0.6670, suggesting a bullish trend towards 0.6900 and 0.7100 levels.
NZD/USD Analysis:
The NZD/USD pair remains above the 0.6225 level, supporting a bullish outlook towards 0.6345 and 0.6450 levels. This bullish scenario will be invalidated if prices fall below 0.6225.
USD/CAD Analysis:
The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure. A break below 1.3450 could resume the bearish trend towards 1.3300. This bearish scenario will be negated if prices rise above the 1.3600 level.
GBP/JPY Analysis:
The GBP/JPY pair continues to trade under bearish pressure below the 196 yen level, with a bearish target of 184 yen.
EUR/JPY Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair remains under bearish pressure below the 164 yen level, targeting the 158 yen level.
EUR/GBP Analysis:
The EUR/GBP pair is still trading under bearish pressure below the 0.8450 level, targeting levels of 0.8375 and 0.8350.
Bitcoin/USD Analysis:
If Bitcoin can regain the 60,000 USD level, it may revive bullish hopes towards 66,000 USD and 72,000 USD in the medium term. This bullish scenario will be invalidated if prices fall back below 60,000 USD.
Ethereum/USD Analysis:
Ethereum remains under pressure. Staying below 2800 USD suggests a bearish trend towards 2200 USD. This bearish outlook will only be invalidated if prices exceed 2800 USD.
Ripple/USD Analysis:
Ripple continues to trade under pressure. A break below 0.55 USD could lead to a decline towards 0.40 USD. This bearish scenario will be avoided if prices remain above 0.55 USD.
Gold Analysis:
Gold remains steady despite positive U.S. economic data. The market awaits the Core PCE Price Index from the U.S. The key trading level for today is 2500 USD. Breaking above this level could lead to gains towards 2550 USD and 2600 USD. This bullish scenario will be invalidated if prices fail to break above 2520 USD.
Crude Oil Analysis:
Crude oil attempts to regain its gains. Exceeding the 77 USD per barrel level could boost the price towards 83 USD. Failure to break above this level could push prices back down to 73 USD per barrel.
Silver Analysis:
Silver struggles to maintain its momentum. Holding above 29 USD could push silver back to levels of 30.5 USD and 32 USD.
Natural Gas Analysis:
Natural gas continues to trade under pressure. Staying below 2.20 USD suggests a downward trend towards 1.80 USD.
Dow Jones Index Analysis:
The Dow Jones Index holds above the 41,000-point level, supporting a bullish trend towards 42,500 points.
S&P 500 Index Analysis:
The S&P 500 Index attempts to end its corrections and regain upward momentum, which will only be achieved by breaking above the 5700-point level.
Nasdaq 100 Index Analysis:
The Nasdaq 100 Index holds above the 19,250-point level, supporting a bullish outlook towards 20,400 and 21,500 points. This bullish scenario will be invalidated if the index breaks below the 19,250-point level.
Russell 2000 Index Analysis:
The Russell 2000 Index attempts to recover its gains. Breaking above the 2225-point level could bolster a bullish trend towards 2320 and 2440 points.
FTSE 100 Index Analysis:
The FTSE 100 Index tries to regain positive momentum. Exceeding the 8400-point level could support gains towards 8600 and 8800 points.
DAX Index Analysis:
If the DAX Index successfully breaks above the 18,750-point level, we could see a positive move targeting 19,250 and 20,000 points.
CAC 40 Index Analysis:
The CAC 40 Index attempts to establish new bullish positions. Staying above the 7600-point level supports a bullish outlook towards 7900 and 8200 points.
Nikkei 225 Index Analysis:
The Nikkei 225 Index remains above the 37,000-point level, supporting a bullish trend towards 40,000 and 42,450 points. This bullish scenario will be negated if the index breaks below the 37,000-point level.
Conclusion:
That concludes our daily technical analysis. Thank you for tuning in, and we wish you a successful trading day. Stay safe and happy trading!
This analysis was prepared by Muhammad Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advised to keep track of economic updates to make informed decisions.
USDX's Possible Lid On The Gold Price: See Analysis & Chart
During the Thursday 29 August 2024, NY session of Gold & Precious metals trading, I noticed some good momentum in Long-positions, so priced looked to be headed up to test 2531.65 which is firm resistance (and below from 2528.50 & even beneath there), where on Wednesday during the Asian session a lacklustre performance in price-momentum of Gold relative to Silver saw it sell off strongly all the way back to 2493.50. Good-on-you if you got in at that price-point because the Gold-bulls drive price back up so quickly.
I have digressed a bit, this week we have seen the start of a recovery in the US Dollar and the index that tracks it, the USDX tested the 101.50 level during yesterday before moving back down. I mentioned during the last NY session that I was cashing in my long-positions in Gold and looking at a possible short. Well full disclosure I am still Short-gold today Friday in the Asia session. Mind you I had to get Short in & out 2 times because price rallied against me, that is trading.
I even forgot to book my profits during yesterday when price got to 2528.65. Why? I honestly thought the Gold price with its momentum would take 2531.65. There's my mistake. Never anticipate the market. If you have conviction on a firmly held idea with a variety of technical analysis confluence & fundamentals to go with it, then that is different, but saying to myself 'we are going to get over hard resistance zones (2528.50-2531.65) and 'I'm gonna ride this baby all the way to a new high today', that is wishful thinking.
What I have learnt about trading Gold & Precious metals is to book your profits. Then you can let price retrace and go again in the same previous direction that booked you all that profit.
Anyway, take a look at my chart, please and keep an eye on a break of the 101.50 area where the USDX could engage in a more firmly held rally as we head towards the 'interest rate decision' in the USA in a few weeks time. I think that the Gold-price is extra sensitive to the Dollar at this point in time and I think the rally in the USDX (see an article I wrote last weekend below - click on the chart) that we are going to see may keep a cap or a lid on the Gold price at least until it explodes upwards on an interest rate reduction. This is my analysis only, I don't get cues from anyone else.
* Trading is risky. Please don't rely solely on my investment advice & trade setups.
Regards,
Chris
easy_explosive_trades
Will the USDX jump up and out of this 15M triangle? See chart
I have an alert set on the USDX to monitor its breaking of the 101.50 area. A few moments ago it nudged 101.30 and I see on this 15M there is a triangle that could give it some momentum on a jump.
Bullish bounce?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 101.02
1st Support: 100.52
1st Resistance: 101.60
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Can Weak Jobs Trigger 50bps Cut, Sink USD? Next week’s job reports could be the decisive factor in determining the scale of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September.
Bank of America, among others, had initially forecast a 25-basis point cut next month. But recent developments have sparked discussions about the possibility of a larger 50 bps reduction, as economic conditions continue to evolve.
Recent figures point to a gradual cooling in demand for labor. With the JOLTS job openings report and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data due next week, investors will be closely monitoring the labor market for signs of further weakness, with unexpected weakness boosting expectations of a 50-basis point (bps) cut.
However, recently upwardly revised GDP figures for the second quarter—now at a 3.0% annualized rate—have done some work to temper expectations for a more aggressive cut. Thus, the market firmly remains in the dark about the size of the rate cut.
DXY Analysis - UPDATE - GDP Growth Supports USD Amid Mixed DataToday’s U.S. economic data delivered a mix of signals, but overall, the strength in Q2 GDP growth is a standout, likely offering support to the USD (DXY). The economy grew at a robust 3.0% (QoQ), beating expectations and more than doubling the growth rate from the previous quarter. This strong performance suggests a resilient economy, which could underpin further dollar strength.
Key Data Points:
Core PCE Prices came in lower than expected at 2.8%, indicating easing inflation pressures, which may influence Fed policy.
Initial Jobless Claims slightly improved, signaling continued labor market strength.
Pending Home Sales fell sharply, down 5.5% MoM, raising concerns about the housing market.
Despite the mixed data, the overall positive growth outlook could see DXY continue to find support, especially if it holds above recent levels. I'll be watching how the dollar index reacts to this data, with a focus on potential bullish continuation as the market digests these results.
is the DOLLAR ready t0 fly????divergence on the weely chart
fibonacci clusters up above previous high making that a point of interest
DXY in coming yearsDollar index Monthly chart showing us that in the beginning of September it could drop to take the liquidity below 99.56 and could further go down to 98.33 which is exactly the 62% retracement level aligned with small little gap New Month Opening Gap (NMOG) there and also with Monthly Fair value Gap i will buy it there for long movement higher.
DXY "Dollar Index" Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideMy Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Newbies,
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Levels discussed on Livestream 29 August29th August
DXY: Could trade higher, needs to break above 101.20 (61.8%) to retest of 101.60
NZDUSD: Retracing down, look for reaction at 0.6220, Buy 0.6235 SL 25 TP 60
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6815 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Could trade up to 1.33, look for reaction at the strong resistance level.
EURUSD: Sell 1.1085 SL 40 TP 85
USDJPY: Sell 144.80 SL 40 TP 140
USDCHF: Buy 0.8445 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Sell 1.3435 SL 20 TP 70
Gold: Could trade slightly higher, look for retest of 2500 to buy the bounce
DXY On Dxy we can see price rejecting a nice resistance which was a support previously, and expecting brearish momentum to continue till atleast 100.300
