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Levels discussed on 27th August Livestream27th August DXY: consolidating along 100.80, needs to stay below 101.10 to maintain bearish sentiment, breaking 100.80 could trade down to 100.55 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6230 SL 20 TP 45 AUDUSD: Look for reaction at 0.68 (CPI Pending) Sell 0.6740 SL 25 TP 45 (Tomorrow) GBPUSD: Buy 1.3225 SL 35 TP 70 EURUSD: Buy 1.1180 SL 25 TP 70 USDJPY: Wait for retracement to complete, before looking for selling potential. could retest 146 USDCHF: Nothing for now, look for reaction at 0.8445 USDCAD: Sell 1.3450 SL 20 TP 40 Gold: Could retest 2500, look for bounce to 2515
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices 27/8/202Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - 27/8/2024 Introduction Welcome, I am Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert. Today, uesday, August 27, 2024. We begin by noting the importance of the economic data to be released today, such as Germany’s GDP at 9:00 AM Makkah Time and the US Consumer Confidence Index at 5:00 PM, which are expected to significantly impact market movements. Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade under pressure, with prices remaining below the 102 level, the downward trend line, and the 55-day moving average. These factors indicate a potential continuation of selling pressure, and the dollar may only regain strength if it breaks above the 1.300 level. Analysis of EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair failed to break above the 1.122000 level, suggesting the possibility of a downward correction before resuming its upward trend towards the 1.13500 and 1.1000 levels. If the pair fails to break through 1.122000, we might see a decline towards 1.111000 or even 1.10000. Analysis of GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair faces strong resistance at the 1.32500 level. If it fails to break through this level, we might see a downward correction towards 1.31000. To exit the bearish trend, buying positions need to return above 1.32500. Analysis of USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair remains under selling pressure, with prices staying below the 145 yen level. If prices continue to stay below this level, the likelihood of a decline towards 140 yen increases, and the bearish scenario will only be canceled if the price breaks above 145 yen. Analysis of USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is trading under selling pressure, with the potential for continued weakness towards the 0.837 and 0.824 levels if prices remain below 0.85 and 100 pips. Analysis of AUD/USD: The AUD/USD pair maintains a bullish trend, with expectations for further upside towards the 0.69 level, provided it breaks through the 0.68 level. The bullish scenario will be negated if the pair breaks below 0.667. Analysis of NZD/USD: The NZD/USD pair is attempting an upward correction and will only regain bullish momentum if it breaks above the 0.62250 level. Analysis of USD/CAD: The USD/CAD pair continues to weaken, with the potential for further declines if prices remain below the 1.36 level. Analysis of GBP/JPY: The GBP/JPY pair is recovering and creating new buying positions, with expectations of a rise towards the 196 yen level if this level is broken. Analysis of EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair remains under pressure, with expectations of further declines towards the 158 yen and 153 yen levels if prices stay below 164 yen. Analysis of EUR/GBP: Breaking below the 0.84500 level indicates the possibility of a bearish wave targeting the 0.83750 and 0.83000 levels. Analysis of USD/TRY: The USD/TRY pair maintains its upward trend, with the potential to reach 44.5 lira per dollar if the upward momentum continues. Bitcoin Analysis: Bitcoin continues to trade above the $60,000 level, with the potential for further gains towards $72,000 and $82,000 if the $66,000 level is broken. Ethereum Analysis: Ethereum faces resistance at the $2800 level, and no further upward movement will be seen unless this level is broken. Ripple Analysis: Ripple maintains an upward trend as long as prices stay above 55 cents, with a target of 65 cents. Gold Analysis: Gold maintains its upward trend thanks to trading above the support level of $2460, supported by economic and geopolitical data. Breaking the resistance level at $2520 will lead to the creation of new buying opportunities and a strong upward wave. Oil Analysis: If oil manages to break above the $77 level, we may see an increase towards the $80 and $83 per barrel levels. Silver Analysis: Silver remains stable above the $29 level, with the potential for further gains if it surpasses $30.5. Natural Gas Analysis: Natural gas is under selling pressure, with the potential for declines to the $1.8 and $1.4 levels if prices stay below $2.20. Dow Jones Analysis: The Dow Jones index maintains its positive trend, targeting the 42,500 level. S&P 500 Analysis: The S&P 500 index is attempting a downward correction, with expectations for further declines if it remains below the 5700 level. Nasdaq 100 Analysis: The Nasdaq 100 index faces the possibility of a downward correction wave if it breaks the support level at 19250 points. Russell 2000 Analysis: The Russell 2000 index is trying to return to the 2225 level, with the potential for further declines if it fails to break above this level. FTSE Analysis: The FTSE index maintains its positive trend, targeting the 8400 level. DAX Analysis: The DAX index needs to break above the 18750 level to confirm the upward trend. CAC Analysis: The CAC index is trying to maintain its positive trend with prices stable above the 7577 level. Nikkei Analysis: The Nikkei index maintains its positive trend, targeting the 42450 level if it remains above the 55-day moving average.
TVC:DXY
by MohammedQais
USD Oversold Weekly for First Time Since 2018It's been a painful first two months of Q3 for the US Dollar. Bears started the push shortly after the July open, and with USD/JPY carry unwind starting shortly after, there's been a constant and near-continuous push from sellers. At this point, the USD finished last week with RSI in oversold territory for the first time since January of 2018. That episode marked a significant low but notice that the reversal didn't happen quickly then, as RSI is not great as a timing indicator. It can be helpful for context, however, highlighting a one-sided market and this is something that could be of interest in the not-too-distant future, especially for those looking at bearish themes in EUR/USD at some point. For now, carry unwind remains an issue and with Powell's proclamation of a pivot at Jackson Hole on Friday, holding long carry in USD/JPY hasn't been this unattractive since before the Fed started hiking rates in March of 2022. For this week, the item of interest is possible capitulation in EUR/USD, which could show with an extended upper wick after a failed run at fresh highs. For levels - the 1.1275 Fibonacci level in EUR/USD remains of interest as this helped to hold the highs last year. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Market News Report - 25 August 2024While the yen was a bit stronger this week, the US dollar was the biggest loser, as it has done for several months this year. While other currencies piggybacked off dollar weakness, the future is never guaranteed in the forex world. Let's see what to expect from the major currency markets fundamentally and technically. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The latest Fed meeting was overall dovish, with Powell indicating a rate cut was on the table next month. STIR (short-term interest rate) markets have suggested a 73% probability of this happening (up from 53% the previous week). There is some cooling in the labour market. Unemployment recently rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, and revisions data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics have shown a gap of 818K jobs missing. Watch out for the upcoming initial jobless claims this week. These are often a precursor to the new unemployment rate released at the start of the month. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals, testing a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. Markets anticipate at least two rate cuts before the year ends. Weakened jobs data is another bearish driver for the dollar. Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this sentiment. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest EU retail sales indicate that the consumer is taking some time to recover from the inflation shock. The European Central Bank (ECB) has stressed that it is data-dependent. For fundamental analysts, this means that certain economic data, like employment data, may boost the euro. While also indicating that their interest rate meeting is 'wide open,' markets see a 95% chance of a cut next month (up from 87% last week). Interestingly, the chart tells a different story. After breaking the last major resistance, the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.06494. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. They are data-dependent, meaning data around inflation, growth, and wage improvement can lift the euro. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the start of this month. However, they remain data-dependent and have no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing in an additional two cuts for the remainder of 2024. The central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future failures here would likely weaken the GBP. As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. Just as we thought the major resistance (1.31424) was too far, it has surpassed this level. However, considering its significance, we should only know how convincing the break is during the week. On the other hand, the nearest key support is far away at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound. However, STIR markets predict a rate hold next month. Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data (e.g., inflation, labour, economic growth). Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate is bullish for the yen. However, STIR markets expect a hold (100% probability, from 95% last week) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. After cooling down last week, USD/JPY looks to have resumed its downtrend, confirming the poor dollar. The major support level to watch is 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. In addition to the recent rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include lower US Treasury yields. The Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside last month. However, having moved quite a distance, a further retracement is imminent. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation rate. Based on their language, a hike isn't out of the question this year. Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we look at economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. The recent rise in China's share prices, which correlates with the Aussie, has been positive for the currency. Still, there is doubt over the longevity of this run. Diarise Wednesday's upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) reading for the Aussie. As further proof of the short-term outlook, the Aussie market has risen noticeably. In our last report, it was only 130 pips away from the nearest major resistance at 0.67986. It is now right onto this level. So, it will be interesting to see how it reacts this week. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per last week's meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The New Zealand dollar is the only currency we have recently updated the short-term outlook (from neutral to bearish). This is mainly due to the central bank dropping the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25% two weeks ago. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. Similar to its closest relative, AUD, the Kiwi is near the major resistance at 0.62220. Only time will tell if it can break or pull back in the coming days. So, this remains the focal point, while the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The ongoing mortgage stress in Canada has forced the Bank of Canada (BoC) to be dovish, the first major bearish catalyst. With a rate cut last month, STIR markets have raised the probability to over 90% of the same next month. Watch out for the upcoming data on the CAD inflation rate and retail sales this week. Thanks to dollar weakness, the CAD continues to strengthen mildly. It now looks to test the next major support target (after breaking one at 1.35888) at 1.34780, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Moreover, STIR markets have priced in an additional cut sometime this year (aside from the one for next month). The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. However, encouraging oil prices, along with data improvements (the name of the game) may save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a rate cut in September (an 82% chance) and December this year. Secondly, SNB expects a moderate improvement in inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and unemployment to rise slightly in the near term. However, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. After a notable retracement, USD/CHF is looking to test the support area at 0.83326. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained unchanged from the previous time. However, as expected, prepare for anything on the charts while aligning this activity with our expert fundamental summaries.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI