DXY trade ideas
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 106.945.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 108.251 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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BTC Tops vs DXY BTC vs DXY Chart.
I am looking at 3day timeframe BTC and comparing this to DXY tops 2017 $104.00
DXY was it was $1.00 back in 2015 peak, it was in a reaccumulating pattern.
I am noticing that BTC is following the same pattern, it will be forming a reaccumulation pattern, which means 100k is the tops and we will be expecting a push down back to around 40k range before bounce back to 100k and so forth as seen with DXY.
Buyside liquidity needed For long term short ahead. 12/13-12/20i am looking for Sellside imbalance buy side inefficiency to get tapped into and a market structure shift for a Swing trade on dxy/usd pairs - if it doesn't give me a market structure shift and a reaction then i will wait for the buyside liquidity to be breached and to be patient. There will definitely be a scalp coming into Monday NY session.
I am going to be patient and wait i will be using stop losses and wait to see how this plays out for swinging. i think it would help you guys to see my scalps because im only scalping for 15pips no more than 30pips at most
if i do get a scalp i will show and post win or loss transparency is a huge thing right now
DXY Analysis Asia and LondonDXY Analysis Asia and London
Dec Friday 13
Price is in a Premium
I would like to see Price could come down to the 50% and possibly .618 where there is a FVG.
We could see consolidation for Asia and expansion in London.
DXY Formed Wave Pattern!Looking for Impulse Up.
DXY formed 1,2,3,4,5 & a now wait for wave b to get in with wave c. It's important to have your own rules on RR and adhere to them. This trading idea is intended to assist you and enhance your knowledge. If you have any questions, please ask me in the comments.
Learn & Earn!
Wave Trader Pro
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY weekly time frame analysisAs of the weekly time TVC:DXY frame, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 106.59, which places it in an important Fibonacci retracement zone. Here’s an analysis of its current position:
Current Position on the Weekly Chart (DXY at 106.59):
1. Fibonacci Levels:
50% Fibonacci Retracement: The current level at 106.59 is near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend from 114.00 (2022 high) to 100.00 (2023 low). This retracement level is crucial as it often serves as a turning point. The 50% level is typically seen as a major resistance or support level.
61.8% Fibonacci Retracement: The next key level above 106.59 is 107.50, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If DXY breaks through 107.50, it could signal a continuation toward the next key resistance near 108.50.
2. Support Levels:
If DXY fails to hold 106.00–106.50, the next potential support levels would be at 104.50, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the broader move.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: If DXY stays above 106.50 and moves toward 107.50 or breaks it, this would suggest a continuation of the upward trend, potentially targeting 108.50 or higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 106.00 could signal weakness, with the next significant support at 104.50.
The DXY’s behavior around these Fibonacci levels will likely be key in determining the next short- to medium-term direction for the dollar. Watching the upcoming U.S. economic data releases will be essential for confirming these technical signals.
DXY New York Session Ideas-Before CPIDXY New York Session Ideas
Before CPI
Price took buy side and is in a premium coming into New York.
There is FVG and equal lows to drawl to. I suspect whatever direction CPI runs to could be the lows to then send it higher. That is only based on the session range.
I also consider price is in a HFT FVG that it is rebalancing and that this pair is bullish, so they could send it the equal highs.
I suspect that it will take out some liquidity and I could frame a trade after the dust settles.
What Can You Expect from the US CPI Report?The November US CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index) will be widely watched today at 1:30 pm GMT.
Headline CPI Inflation Forecast to Have Increased in November
According to Refinitiv data, headline YY (year-on-year) CPI inflation is expected to have risen to 2.7% from 2.6% in October, marking a second consecutive month of increasing price pressures. YY core CPI inflation, which excludes energy and food components, is forecast to have risen to 3.3%, matching September and October’s reports. On a month-on-month (MM) basis, headline CPI inflation is anticipated to have increased by 0.3% from 0.2% in October, with MM core CPI inflation forecast to have reached 0.3%, similar to October’s report.
As most will be aware, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) works with a dual mandate: to promote maximum employment and maintain stable prices.
We saw from Friday’s US Employment Situation Report for November that while job growth modestly surpassed expectations (220,000), adding 227,000 jobs, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher to 4.2% from 4.1% in October. Therefore, we were left with a somewhat mixed bag.
Regarding inflation progress, it is no secret that the Fed is expecting some bumps along the road, and that the recent acceleration in recent months is not ideal. However, I do not believe recent data are sufficient to derail the easing cycle at this point. Yet, it has led some Fed officials to underline the possibility of adopting more of a cautious stance at upcoming meetings, and rightly so. The elevated inflation numbers we have seen in previous months will likely lead the Fed to kick off 2025 tentatively. This is particularly true with the election of Donald Trump, which further complicates the inflation outlook.
Inflation Remains Above Fed Target
Here is where we stand according to October’s overall inflation data, proving ‘sticky’ north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. YY CPI inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, YY PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) rose to 2.4% from 1.9%, and YY PCE data (Personal Consumption Expenditures) elbowed to 2.3% from 2.1%. Core YY CPI inflation remained at 3.3%, core PPI inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, and core PCE data rose to 2.8% from 2.7%. So, while inflation has slowed considerably since the pandemic, inflationary pressures show evidence of stubbornness. PCE data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is holding just north of 2.0%, and core PCE has stalled around the 2.8% mark amid increased consumption, particularly in services.
Fed Rate Cut Largely Priced in Next Week
For next week’s meeting, I feel the Fed will likely cut rates unless we get hot inflation data today, which would be a catalyst for a USD bid (an in-line print will not change much). Markets are currently assigning an 85% probability that the Fed will pull the trigger again next week and reduce the target on the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25-4.50%.
You may recall that the Fed has already cut rates by 75 bps this year, with a 25 bp reduction in November and a 50 bp cut in September.
Dollar Outlook Ahead of the Event
According to the US Dollar Index, things are looking up for the USD ahead of the CPI release. The monthly chart shows November probed year-to-date highs of 108.07 and likely consumed a large portion of stops above neighbouring highs to pave the way north towards another layer of resistance at 109.33.
Adding to the bullish vibe on the monthly scale, the daily chart saw price action trade through the upper boundary of a bullish pennant pattern drawn from the high of 108.07 and low of 106.11. This could technically underpin further buying towards at least 108.07 and, with a bit of oomph, towards monthly resistance from 109.33.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9
Hence, it shouldn't fall below.
After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9
The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148.
New reality after May 2025?
test 1EUR/JPY maintains its position around 159.50 during Tuesday's Asian session. This upward movement in the EUR/JPY cross is likely due to a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY), driven by uncertain expectations about a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in December.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently signaled that the timing for the next rate hike is approaching. Combined with data showing strong underlying inflation in Japan, this has increased speculation of a rate hike at the BoJ's policy meeting on December 18-19.
However, some media reports suggest the BoJ may opt to skip a rate hike this month. Additionally, dovish BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura emphasized the need for caution in raising rates, adding further uncertainty and weighing on the Japanese Yen.
Market News Report - 08 December 2024The dollar was back to its usual dominance in the past week, concluded by a positive Non-Farm Payroll figure last Friday. The yen also picked up the bullish momentum it began last week. It will probably be a volatile week with the release of four interest rate decisions.
Let's explore whether our latest market news report reveals notable technical and fundamental changes in the major forex pairs.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.00% to 4.75%, emphasizing that inflation is moving towards the 2% target but is still slightly elevated. Keep an eye on the new inflation rate on Wednesday.
October's labour data was down, mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing.
While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with short-term interest rate (STIR) market pricing indicating an 88% chance (up from 67%) chance of a 25 bps cut this week. Furthermore, last Friday's NFP print suggested that there is nothing to stop the Fed from cutting rates.
While the Dixie is still quite bullish, it has retraced slightly from the new key resistance at 108.071. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their future decisions.
The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. December 6's jobs data indicates that CPI this week will be important and closely watched by markets.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth).
STIR markets have indicated an 87% chance of a rate cut on Thursday (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Still, a pullback may be due at some point.
The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.03319. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround.
The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. Other contributing factors to a pressured euro are bumpy French politics and the prospect of a German snap election.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Furthermore, he forecasted four rate cuts in 2025, which is a tad bit more dovish than market pricing.
A big miss in the GDP print on Friday, could be enough to send the GBP lower this week. However, inflation data still remains crucial.
Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, inflation data (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Finally, STIR markets indicate an 89% chance (up from 84%) of a rate hold by the BoE next Thursday.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of October. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention.
At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion.
The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. However, there has been a noticeable retracement amid this move). Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish sentiment. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.'
We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: neutral.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently kept its interest rate unchanged, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight.
Diarise the upcoming AUD interest rate decision scheduled for Tuesday.
The dollar remains dominant against the Aussie, as AUD/USD is very close to testing the key support at 0.63484. Meanwhile, the key resistance level lies far ahead at 0.69426.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired.
It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD).
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its interest by 50 bps to 4.25% as expected last week, the same as in October. It also signalled further reductions for early next week while remaining confident that inflation will remain in the target zone. However, risks of increased inflation volatility and relative price unpredictability remain.
The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. NZD/USD is close to the key support at 0.57736, reaffirming this bearish market.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
Governor Orr indicated in the last RBNZ meeting that a 50 bps cut in February 2025 is possible. So, we can rule out a rate hike, more so with potential trade tariff issues between China and the United States. These can cause headwinds for NZD and AUD.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut in October. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. Markets indicate a likelihood of a cut on Wednesday (maybe another 50 bps).
The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers.
While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. This market is very close to the fresh key resistance at 1.41781. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 68% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower.
Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) in the Sept. 26 meeting. The Swiss National (SNB) also indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. STIR pricing indicates a 57% chance of a 50 bps cut on Thursday.
The October CPI was weak at 0.6% (another poor result as it was for September). Finally, the central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates," further stating that the SNB would be ready to implement this if needed. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major resistance level at 0.922444, while the major support level is at 0.83326.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%).
Conclusion
In summary:
The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch. However, the Japanese yen is another considerable option due to its recent bullish momentum.
EUR, AUD, CAD and CHF are all the currencies with new upcoming interest rate decisions.
Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few weeks.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
Analysing USDX' recent history. Insight into causes of rally.
The chart is a about 2.5 years of weekly pricing of the US Dollar Index USDX.
Simply, illustrating 3 examples of positive divergence for the Dollar and why the $-rally has grown to such an enormous force here at the end of 2024.
My analysis left me wondering about the high to lower-high on RSI which over the same 2.5 years led to a higher high recorded in 2024 (recently), positive RSI divergence, which should correlate to even higher USD Dollar rally's at the start of 2025.
But instead, clearly seen in the RSI chart, the recent withdrawal of the RSI from the USDX from overbought territory in the RSI and retreating back to a level well under 70.
But I see a reversal-swing back into overbought territory on the RSI > 70 causing more momentum back into the Dollar and this increase back into overbought / outperforming would be consistent with the bullish RSI divergence outlined last above, which cals for an even higher USDX.
It would not surprise me to see the USDX climb to 111 during 2025.
Why? How? If you look across at the corresponding historical weekly candle you will find the 7 Nov 22 weekly candle which is a big candle and it closed at 111.
It makes me wonder about Gold's direction. Bullish but capped somewhat until the Dollar finishes its upwards move.
This will also occur in 2025 when the Dollar will eventually retreat as historically evidenced here in the USDX RSI weekly. It shows severe overselling and the resultant bull-rally to the opposite where the dollar outperforms/overbought and eventually has to correct its pricing by becoming less overbought.
All can be seen in the weekly RSI chart.
Analyzing DXY: Key Clues for USD Pair Trading Opportunities👀👉 In this video, we dive into the DXY index and analyze its bearish break of market structure on the 4-hour chart, highlighting the mounting pressure on the dollar. We discuss the importance of monitoring price action through the London session into the New York open, waiting for potential liquidity runs and pullbacks before the daily or weekly trend emerges. Learn how the DXY provides vital clues for trading correlated and inversely correlated currency pairs, unlocking potential opportunities across the forex market. Don’t miss these key insights to stay ahead in your trading! Not financial advice.📊✅
DXY seems going HIGHER as STRONG ECONOMIC DATATVC:DXY currently traded higher after strong economic data last Friday. NFP data told us that US labor market remain strong. We also can see at Tuesday Job Opening data which showed us "higher than expected - higher than previous month" and finally drives the price up. At the last speech, Powell also said that FED isn't in a rush condition to reduce the interest rate. All of this information gives more optimism to big player in the market to buy dollar.
Technical analysis in the picture tells TVC:DXY failed to make breakout movement below weekly trendline support and seems continue to move to it's last high around 106.75. If this resistance can't hold the price, it will be double bottom chart pattern and could move dollar to it's 22 Nov high around 108.xx
So currently i saw buy opportunity for dollar and sell opportunity in the counter currency of dollar.
DOLLAR DROPPING?This week, I anticipate the DXY to retrace before continuing its recent bearish trend. Since reaching the weekly supply level, the price has consistently formed lower lows and lower highs. This bearish momentum aligns with the bullish trends seen in pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD, which I use as additional confluence.
I’ll be watching for the price to retrace to around 106.400, a key area for potential sell opportunities on the dollar. This level aligns well with points of interest (POIs) in my other forex pairs, adding further confidence to this setup.
Note: As we approach the final month of the quarter and year, market conditions may become less predictable due to lower volume. Stay alert, but manage expectations accordingly.
Stay vigilant, and trade safe!
DXY/ USD The US Dollar flat with dust settling over Nonfarm Payrolls number. The Greenback is being rebalanced with markets looking for a December rate cut from the Fed. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is back above pivotal support at 105.50, heading to 106.00The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. These currencies are the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). The index started in 1973 -with the absolution of Bretton Woods- with a base of 100.000, and values since then are relative to this base. For example, if the current reading says 99.800, this means that the dollar has fallen 0.2% since the start of the index (99.800 - 100.000)Being the Dollar Index a geometrically weighted index and not a trade-weighted one, it is too concentrated in Europe and does not include two of the U.S. top four trading partners Mexico and China. It does not appear to be used by corporates or many asset managers, like mutual funds, insurance companies, and endowments. It is primarily a speculative vehicle. It's also important to acknowledge that a geometric mean artificially lowers the value of the USD over time.
DXY WAVE ANALYSISThe trend seems to have ended in this timeframe /
Currently, the trend seems to be continuing. I do not recommend trading until the trend ends in this timeframe and lower targets
Make sure to involve less than 2-3% of your total capital and adhere to money management principles
This is just a suggestion for consideration
USD Index // Preparation for the ExpansionThe Dollar Index is bearish on the daily, within the valid daily countertrend.
The H4 long countertrend is also valid, and since in this trend, there is no space to trade, I'm waiting for the market to turn south in the direction of the daily short trend.
My trigger is at the H4 breakout. Once this level is broken, I'm in to ride the wave down to the daily breakout (blue) and maybe to the weekly breakout (purple).
The correction fibo is drawn with thin black dashed lines, and 38.2 is pretty much in line with the daily breakout, therefore, a nice target.
Going for the correction fibo 50 is a bit more risky, and there is the weekly breakout along the way.
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
🏄🏼♂️
And feel free to express your opinion in the comments! 🙂
DXY - Index About to Kiss 105 or Lower?20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
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How I see it:
Head & shoulder 1D structure. Classic lower right shoulder!
Curled 20SMA could offer resistance and/or limit upward attempts.
Will structure be respected for a fall towards 105 or next key support?
KEYNOTE:
Weekly inverse rejection candle close; we'll see if the wick offers any upward assistance.
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
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Weekly Forex Forecast: USD is Bullish In The Short Term!The USD Index closed last week very bearish, trading through the previous week's low. A pullback makes sense for this week, at least for the beginning of it. With NFP coming on Friday, trading up until Wed may be the safest way to go.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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