Tradingdaq | NAS100 Market Daily Technical AnalysisThe NAS100 CAPITALCOM:US100 price perfectly filled my last idea yesterday. If the price drops and a bearish candle closes below 21160, I will establish my target at 21040.
NAS100 trade ideas
NASDAQ Santa rally is starting.Nasdaq (NDX) has been following the blueprint of the 2020/21 Bull Cycle to high precision so far, as we showed on our analysis almost 4 months ago (August 19, see chart below):
As you can see it is already marching towards Target 1 (23250) on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, well inside the Channel Up. We expect that to get hit by the final week of December, which can be translated as the infamous 'Santa rally', a frequent seasonal price increase at the end of the year.
As mentioned, this Channel Up displays strong similarities with the patterns of August 2020 - November 2021 and before the COVID crash of December 2019 - February 2020. All those Channel Up patterns are within the dominant long-term structure of the 6-year Bullish Megaphone.
The key here is for the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to hold and continue to offer support, as within those 6 years the only two times it broke were during the corrections of the 2022 Inflation Crisis and the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
As long as it holds, the current Channel Up should, besides the immediate Target 1 (23250), complete the sequence and peak towards the end of 2025 as close to a +185% rise (from the October 2022 bottom) as possible. This is why our long-term strategic Target (2) is a little lower at 27000.
As a side-note, see how well the 1W RSI held and bounced in September on the Symmetrical Support Zone, in similar fashion as 2020 - 2021. Also the 1W MACD displays a similar pattern between the two fractals.
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Nasdaq 100: Double Top or Christmas Rally Ahead? The Nasdaq 100 moved higher as expected. The price has now formed a possible double top with a neckline at 21,200 and a target of 21,884. The pattern might morph into an ascending triangle, which would favor the bulls.
Tactically, traders have a few options for betting on the trend and a potential Christmas rally. One option is to wait for a decline to the 21,029–20,883 range and turn bullish, targeting the upside. The other is to wait for a breach of 21,200. However, the probability of success increases the longer the market consolidates below this level.
A breach today, for example, is unlikely to trigger a strong bullish push, but that could change by the end of the week. What’s your take on the Nasdaq 100? Share your view below!
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NASDAQ LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT DROP BEFORE CREATING A NEW HIGHNasdaq Broke our overall high yesterday so I'm expecting the market to create a new lower high in response of the uptrend we are currently in.
Then after hitting our low target we'll be looking for buy opportunities to break and create a higher high.
NASDAQ LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT DROP BEFORE CREATING A NEW HIGHNasdaq Broke our overall high yesterday so I'm expecting the market to create a new lower high in response of the uptrend we are currently in.
Then after hitting our low target we'll be looking for buy opportunities to break and create a higher high.
US100 Poised for a Surge: EW 2.0 Predicts a Move to 22420 Soon.According to Elliott Wave 2.0 analysis, the index could reach 22,420 by the end of the year, driven by several key factors.
Elliott Wave 2.0 Insights
The Elliott Wave 2.0 approach refines traditional wave theory, offering deeper insights into market behaviors. Current patterns suggest one last significant upward move, with the potential to push the US100 to unprecedented heights.
Factors Influencing the Surge
Political Climate: Election years often bring volatility, but also opportunities. Depending on policy expectations, markets may react positively to anticipated economic measures.
Tech Sector Growth: The US100 is heavily influenced by technology stocks. Continued innovation and strong earnings reports provide a solid foundation for further gains.
While my forecast is optimistic, traders should remain mindful of potential risks specially
geopolitical tensions or economic disruptions could alter the expected trajectory.
Crucial day for NAS100Today is a crucial day for the NAS100 index, as it faces a critical level at 21,245. The price action here will determine the short-term direction of the market. If NAS100 manages to break above 21,245, it could signal a continuation of its upward momentum, potentially reaching new all-time highs, with a target of 22,200 by January 2025.
However, if the index fails to break this level and instead stays in a range-bound consolidation for a few days, the price may hover in the current levels, waiting for further clarity. A key support level to watch is 20,700; if the NAS100 refuses to fall below this price, the index could build enough strength to push towards the 22,200 target.
On the other hand, if the index breaks below 20,700, it may retest the base of the channel at 20,517. A breach of this level could lead to further downside, with 19,500 as the next target, followed by 18,300. In the worst-case scenario, a breakdown could push the index all the way down to 17,400.
Thus, today's price action is vital for determining whether the NAS100 will reach new highs or face a deeper correction.
4h broke recent supply and buyers entered.D has only buyers. 4h buyers tried thrice to push up, but now are in control.
MAG7 breaks to new highs with the NAS100 outperforming The reaction in markets is what interests the most, and on the day, despite US Treasuries finding form, we’ve seen broad USD strength, the S&P500 has pushed to its 55th new all-time high in 2024, while gold and crude are largely unchanged. We also see sizeable dispersions in the daily returns in the crypto space, with XRP and Chainlink arguable the standout plays, with 23% and 41% gains respectively on the day.
In the volatility (vol) space, we see the VIX trading lower at 13.5% - the lowest level since July and at levels more aligned with S&P500 20-day realised vol. Equity hedges have been unwound, which speaks to a market confident of a grind higher into year-end. Another way to visualise the subdued equity vol is in the daily high-low trading ranges, and on the day the S&P500 has tracked a meagre 18-handle range – one of the lowest high-low ranges of the year, and well below the 5-day average of 34-handles.
Removing downside hedges makes sense given the largest drawdown in the S&P500 in Q4 has been 3.1%, and hedges cost money and subtract from performance if equity is moving higher. On the day we’ve seen a solid bid in comms services names (Meta & Alphabet), tech and consumer discretionary – said another way, the MAG7 index (+1.9%) has broken out to a new ATH, with all 7 MAG7 constituents rising on the day. Microsoft and Meta would be my picks that lead us higher from here, with MSFT filling the gap from the 31 Oct, where a break of $432.23 would suggest a continuation rally into $440.
Naturally, when tech and the big discretionary plays are firing up, it’s the NAS100 which has outperformed, and we see NAS100 futures 120p from testing the former ATH at 21,340.
We’ve seen solid moves in European equity too, and notably in the German DAX which is in beast mode and doing everything right technically – happy to hold longs here until the index has a daily close below the 5-day EMA.
French equity is the exception, with the CAC40 closing unchanged, which is quite a solid result given the brewing political angst. Certainly, we’ve seen the political risk expressed in the EUR, which is lower on the day against all G10 currencies, and notably vs the JPY and USD. We can add negative revisions to the French and German manufacturing PMIs, which make for sobering viewing, and the upshot has been broad EUR selling.
EURUSD hit a low of 1.0461 before the buyers stepped in – we can attribute a degree of the move lower to an improved US ISM manufacturing report (at 48.4 vs 47.5 eyed), although we did see some modest USD selling late in the session as Fed gov Waller signalled that he is leaning on a December rate cut and that rates are still “some distance from neutral”. US interest rate swaps now price at 79% chance the Fed cut by 25bp on 18 Dec.
Equity and bond vol may be headed lower, but FX vol is alive and well with EURUSD 1-month implied vol at 8.66% and the 92nd percentile of the 12-month range. Buying EUR vol certainly made sense given the uncertainty of the ECBs (and the Fed’s) next move and the French political risk premium. CAD vols also screen well, with options traders seeing increased movement in USDCAD and AUDCAD.
On the subject of movement, we can always find it in the crypto markets, and while Bitcoin (-2.5%) and Ethereum (-2.7%) take a backseat, it’s XRP that’s getting the lion’s share of trader attention with its punchy 23% rally on the day. The daily chart looks ridiculous and highlights the explosive 450% gain seen since the US election. XRP Volumes are tracking north of SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on the day, which is higher than what’s traded on BTC, with the gains taking its market cap to $134b – the third biggest coin in the crypto sphere.
Grossly overbought, and with a 10-day volatility of 150%, chasing XRP upside from here comes with significant risk and the fact I’m focused on it suggests we’ve likely hit peak sentiment – but as know what is overbought can stay overbought for some time.
Looking ahead, we see a largely positive open for Asia with the ASX200 set to outperform with the index set to open nicely above 8500 and to new highs. Event risk in the session ahead comes in on the light side, with Swiss CPI and US Job openings (JOLTS) the key events on the radar.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 2 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY. All higher timeframes are bullish.
Morning analysis:
M TF - November candle closed very bullish. Candle body is +- 9'600 pips. Indicates very bullish sentiment overall
W TF - Last week's candle closed in a doji formation. Could be an indication that bulls are loosing momentum
D TF - Fridays candle closed right at the resistance formed by Tuesday's candle. Could Friday's candle represent the second top of a DT? Neckline would be 1'700 pips down (at time of writing). But D EMA is right at neckline, so bears would have to push very hard to break this neckline down.
In the past I have noted that when we have 2 x days, like Thanksgiving, where market was closed / half day, we see a COMPLETELY different sentiment come in on market open of the first "real" day of trading. It's like the extended trading guys where doing their own thing (in this case being bullish) and then when real market comes in, sentiment could be much different and a correction could occur. So need to be careful at market open.
2 x areas of interest identified (highlighted in green)
1. 1H + 4H 0.382 buy fib level + Pivot point + D 0.618 SELL fib level which bulls will want to stay above + 1H EMA (at time of writing at 6am)
2. D EMA (at time of writing at 6am) + W 0.382 buy fib + D 0.618 buy fib level
As the day progressed:
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - Price made a DB before reaching the first interest area. DB on the 1H TF with neckline broken upwards. The second bottom of the DB (at C.) is higher than the first bottom of the market pattern. This also contributes to the bullishness of the market pattern. Entered on the break of the neckline at the hand icon.
2. S&R - candle wicks touching 30 EMA and moving up (at time of writing in the morning), i.e. 30min EMA providing dynamic support.
3. Trend - Temporary down trend line broken (marked with top green line), indicating that the downtrend is over and price is ready to resume upwards.
4. Fib - A few wicks reaching towards the 4H 0.382 fib, but DB formed quite a way above this level.
5. Candlesticks - candle wicks touching 30 EMA and moving up, i.e. 30min EMA providing dynamic support.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line. Usually, I would place my stop loss at half the height of the market pattern but because this was such a tight DB, I felt I have to place it a bit lower where the first bottom occurred. If candles started closing below this point, I would consider closing.
I opened a full position size and it was a banger of a day!
Market open pushed straight up!
Price ultimately moved 2979 pips from my entry.
I closed when price made a DT on the 15min (indicated at the top hand icon). I would normally leave a runner, but I am on a mission to build my account and so don't want to leave money on the table.
Made some good moola today! Hope you did too!
Laters!
Stats:
Price moved a total of 3195 pips today.
Of the total move, I captured 2651 pips / 83%.
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NAS100USD: Is Bullish Momentum Only Temporary?Greetings, Traders!
In today’s analysis, NAS100USD is exhibiting bullish institutional order flow, presenting an opportunity to align with the current market narrative.
Key Observations
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price has retraced into an FVG, providing a critical area of interest for support.
Bullish Order Block: Situated below the FVG, this structure enhances the zone’s strength as an institutional support area.
Strategy
Look for confirmation entries at this support zone.
Target: Liquidity pool above, aligning with the bullish flow.
Feel free to share your insights, questions, or analysis in the comments below. Let’s trade and grow together!
Regards,
The_Architect
Nas100 1. Understand how the Forex market works, including currency pairs, pips, and leverage.
2. Develop a clear trading plan with specific entry, exit, and risk management rules.
3. Always use stop-loss orders to protect your capital and limit losses.
4. Risk only 1-2% of your account per trade to avoid significant losses.
5. Trade with the trend, as it’s often safer than going against the market.
6. Avoid overtrading; quality trades are better than a high quantity of trades.
7. Use technical and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions.
8. Stay updated on global news that can affect currency values, like interest rates and geopolitical events.
9. Keep emotions in check—fear and greed can lead to poor decisions.
10. Continuously learn and adapt your strategy based on market behavior and personal experience.
CHART BREAKDOWN NASDAQ: Key Levels, Targets and Thoughts!Brief Description🖊️:
The chart provides insights into critical market levels, emphasizing 1 essential demand zone: low-risk buy spanning from 20,930.00 to 20,900.00, respectively, is highlighted.
Things I Have Seen👀:
Important Demand Zone🟢: Identified between 20,930.00 and 20,900.00, serving as a low-risk buy.
Bearish Targets📈:
20,940.00: Possible retracement area.
20,980.00: Possible retracement area.
21,200.00: Liquidity Area.
What's Important Now❗
Currently, the crucial approach is to wait and observe the price action at this level. We need to assess how the market reacts before considering any decisive moves. Stay observant and responsive to real-time developments in the market.
NASDAQ: Strong bullish breakout today targeting 21,600Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.836, MACD = 123.620, ADX = 32.041) as today posted the strongest 1D candle since Nov 7th, extending the new bullish wave. The whole sequence is supported by the 1D MA50 since September 12th. Even though we are technically more than halfway through the wave, this is still a strong buy opportunity, aiming for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) as it has previously done so inside the 3 month Channel Up.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USNAS100 - Bullish Momentum and Potential Reversal LevelsTechnically:
The price experienced upward momentum on Friday and maintains its bullish trajectory, with stability observed above the critical level of 20,860.
Bearish Scenario:
A sustained break below 20,860 could trigger further declines, with potential targets at 20,730 and 20,600.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 20,860, the bullish outlook remains intact, paving the way toward 20,990. A breakout above this level may propel the price to an all-time high of 21,230. Notably, a retest of the 20,860 level from the current price is a plausible scenario.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20860
Resistance Levels: 20990, 21080, 21230
Support Levels: 20730, 20660, 20550
Trendline breakThe price has been consolidating a bullish run within a trendline pattern, now the price has broken and there has been a pullback, this is an indication to go long at a higher high
WE ONLY TRADE PULLACKS
NSDQ short after NY OPEN fakeAfter identifying the Judas swing in accordance with the RSMLT concept, the following analysis leads to a short trade scenario with a target of 100 pips.
This setup exemplifies the RSMLT strategy in action, adhering to the predefined rules and utilizing its unique Fibonacci zones and manipulation-based approach.
NASDAQ // Countertrend Break - Expansion PhaseNASDAQ has just broken the H4 countertrend with a nice trigger candle, heading towards the H4 target fibo 138.2 and the weekly target fibo levels.
Valid until the H4 waves keep going north.
Please feel free to share you thoughts on this!
US100US100 1H time frame
1.dow theory is bulish
2.no divergence
3.continuation bulish flag pettren
entry price :20958
SL:20876
TP:21044
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism
The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors.
US Economic Data Highlights
Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations:
- **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2.
- **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4.
- **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M.
- **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10.
- **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast.
- **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market.
- **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **66 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors.
Rate Cut Expectations
Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **62,2%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain.
Geopolitical Risks
Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability.
Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist
The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist.
Broader Context
Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain:
- **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%.
- **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets.
Implications for Nasdaq
Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility.
What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!
US100US 100 - Nasdaq Index
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Order Block
Change of Characteristics
Demand Zone
Tradingdaq | NAS100 Market Daily Technical AnalysisStock exchanges were closed last Thursday, reopening for a half-day on Friday, all in a celebratory spirit following Thanksgiving. The stock indexes wrapped up the week and month on a strong positive note, buoyed by the optimism surrounding Trump’s presidency. The Nasdaq surged 0.8% in the shortened session, sealing the week and month with a 1.1% gain, and it achieved an impressive 6.2% growth for the entire month of November. This marks the index's best month since May. With three out of the last four months ending on a high note, the Nasdaq has soared 28% since the start of the year. If the price increases and a bullish candle closes above 20870, my target will be 21040.
Strengthening Your NASDAQ Strategy: Key Insights for Next WeekRecent Performance: The NASDAQ index has recently displayed underperformance
against major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, with choppy price
action and high volatility reflecting investor uncertainty. Despite other
indices reaching new heights, the NASDAQ's struggle amid a generally bullish
market suggests potential caution ahead.
- Key Insights: Investors should be mindful of the NASDAQ's current struggles as
disappointing tech earnings have dampened sentiment, indicating possible
risks for new entrants. Close attention to key support and resistance levels
will be crucial for making informed trading decisions.
- Expert Analysis: Experts regard the NASDAQ as being at a critical turning
point, with the underperformance largely attributed to the tech sector's
challenges. While the overall market maintains an optimistic outlook, the
NASDAQ remains vulnerable to volatility. A careful approach is recommended
given the mixed signals emerging from its performance in relation to other
key indices.
- Sentiment Analysis: Current sentiment: 0; Last week: -40.0; Change: 40.0;
Total mentions: 203. This significant sentiment shift highlights increasing
optimism among market participants but continued caution is essential given
recent volatility.
- Price Targets: Next week targets: T1: 21,200, T2: 21,500. Stop levels: S1:
20,000, S2: 19,700. These targets align with current market sentiment and
volatility, providing realistic expectations for short-term price movements.
- News Impact: The planned stock listing of Palantir on the NASDAQ is expected
to bolster visibility and attract institutional investment, providing a
positive catalyst for the index. Continued optimism in the tech and fintech
sectors hinges on upcoming earnings and broader economic indicators, which
will significantly impact market direction. Keeping abreast of these
developments is crucial for making informed trading decisions in the NASDAQ
landscape.
