Two tempting short setups — but one is hiding real dangerWhich pair would you short?
We’re looking at JCPB/BAB and AGG/GTO , both showing positive deviation and riding the upper Bollinger Band.
At first glance, both look ripe for a short… but dig deeper, and you'll see very different stories.
🔹 JCPB/BAB
Chart:
Low ADX, balanced DI+ / DI− → classic setup for a mean-reversion short.
But the last daily candle is a strong bullish bar — big, green, and decisive.
This could be the start of a breakout , and shorting into fresh upside momentum is dangerous.
Looks neutral — but hides bullish potential.
🔸 AGG/GTO
Chart:
Clear uptrend: DI+ dominates, price marching upward.
Also touching upper Bollinger Band, so yes — shorting here is fighting the trend.
But at least the risk is obvious , and you can frame the trade accordingly.
Transparent trend = measurable risk.
🧠 Bottom line:
JCPB/BAB may seem safer — but that green candle changes everything.
AGG/GTO is clearly trending — risky to short, but less deceptive.
👇 So, if you had to short one of these — which would it be?
Drop your take below. Let’s hear your reasoning.
AGG trade ideas
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed Awakening. Series IIIt's gone 3 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press.
Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin almost cleared $100,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally.
However macro data still stoke fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too slow with cutting interest rates. Non-farm payroll added just 12K new places last month. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.5%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
Fresh ISM release is scheduled on Dec 02, 2024 (47.5 points forecasted), and labor market data is on the radars on Friday, Dec 06 (+183K non-farm payroll forecasted).
The main technical graph is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format, and it indicates on Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical structure in development, as it's been discussed in earlier published ideas.
Moreover, huge 200-Week SMA breakthrough is on the investments radars also.
What does it mean for Bond Market?.. Potentially "Good", to jump to all-time high.
... and for Stock Market?.. Potentially "Also Good", until it reach the fever pitch.
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/
With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature.
Fears & Greed Awakening.
👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively.
👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero.
Technical observations
👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough.
👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark.
👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
$AGG - US bonds ready for a bounce?I think we are quite close to seeing a bounce in US Bond ETF's. With the 10 year falling back under 3.0% and bond charts in general showing lots of divergency between price and indicators, i think we can get a bit of a bounce here. Also some good volume coming in on the AGG US bond etf which shows interest emerging.
Daily AGG stock forecast trend analysis 10-JUL
Price trend forecast timing analysis based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
Investing position: In Falling section of high risk & low profit
S&D strength Trend: About to begin an upward trend as a adjustment trend gradually gives way to increasing limited falls and strong rises.
Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand strength has changed to a strengthening buying flow when stock market opening.
READ MORE: www.pretiming.com
D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: GREEN Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ 0.0% (LOW), 0.1% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ 0.0% (LOW), 0.1% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.1% (HIGH) ~ -0.2% (LOW), -0.1% (CLOSE)
Short on AGGTechnical analysis is great for free market securities, but, when it comes to treasuries, the Fed remains the bigger decider of price direction. Fundamentally, this instrument is set to go down further. The positive economic outlook pushes the Fed to raise rates and prices do not reflect their target yet. Over the coming two years, unless there is a dramatic change in policy, this will slowly degrade, price-wise.