Argentina's Strength through Fiscal ResponsibilityArgentina has made some of the hardest fiscal decisions of any country I can remember in my lifetime and with this has come growth and new investment.
We could see a strong bottoming signal from a bit ago of the Lin Reg + RSI indicator with all values below 50 and RSI below 30. Confirmed in the Williams indicator with green bars and falling Relative Volume.
I believe a DCA strategy for the next few months will be safe as there is support relatively close and mid and high end targets using a Gann Fan to estimate where we look to go.
Although not so much TA I believe Argentina may follow Ecuador's lead in buying bitcoin as we are still yet to see what crypto summer has to offer.
ARGT trade ideas
AGRT - ARGENTINA ELECTIONHi, today we are going to talk about AGRT
We observe a D1, some important points. The details are highlighted above.
Thank you for reading and leave your comments if you like.
Targets: Exclusive to Traders Heaven members.
Stop: Exclusive to Traders Heaven members.
Join the Traders Heaven today, for more exclusive contents!
Link bellow!
Disclaimer: All content of Golden Dragon has only educational and informational purposes, and never should use it as financial advice
ARGT: Argentinian shares bottomed after the Primary electionsIt seems Argentinian stocks have bottomed here for now, after basing for 5 weeks, daily charts show some strength but there's risk going forward after the elections by October 27th. If the next president manages to surprise investors positively, the situation here might improve, and inflation drop down if the dollar is kept in check, and investments start flowing back to the region. I'm skeptical, but risk/reward favors being long from this zone, with a stop under the 22 handle.
The main problem remains being the need for labor reform, and reducing the influence of unions, and the enormous government spending, cutting taxes, and stopping the printing press...
Let's see how it goes.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Point blankI just want to inform my followers of what happened to Argentina's stock market. The return to the Dec 2018 lows did not happen over months. It did not happen over weeks. It did not happen over days. The crux of it happened in a matter of overnight *hours* where the majority could do *nothing*.
Now, I'm not sure if the US markets have a safety night to prevent such a similar catastrophe, but be warned. It seems that, these days, great complacency can be turned into a complete catastrophe in mere hours.
ARGT: Trend is upMacri's counter offensive move, in response to Cristina Kirchner's presidential formula strategy was a brilliant one, picking Pichetto as his Vice-President for the upcoming October elections. Pichetto is a man from the Peronist party, but who is not afraid of bipartisan politics in Congress, and who wants to work for the President in Congress, and not force government shutdown. Many dislike this trait of his, but him being a strong defender of small and medium enterprises, and most likely helping Macri lead the country towards proper capitalism, with some luck, is what got investors bullish again.
The $USDARS pair dropped rapidly, and the 2-Week timeframe uptrend signal I had forecasted in it failed. The Dollar didn't hit 49-50 in time, despite the Central Banks pathetic actions in the last year, and Macri's political antics might have turned the trend in it for the next 16-19 weeks. $USDARS might sink towards 37 again, if things go really well.
If Cristina were to win, Alberto Fernandez is a man who might keep her extreme pseudo-socialist ways in check, or at least this is what investors seem to think, given the reaction of markets to the formula. Hopefully, whoever wins, stops the ridiculous spending, and insane taxing, which is choking anyone trying to build ANY kind of business here...since small and medium sized enterprises are the main sources of jobs in the country atm. This might help the currency do better, and reduce inflation. For this, government needs to reduce its size, which is not too likely to occur if Peronists win this time around, but also not extremely likely to occur if Macri is elected again, either.
My reccomendation is to not own too many Argentinian assets, overall, but I'm slightly optimistic going forward.
Best of luck to us all,
Ivan Labrie.
ARGT on life supportI just don't understand why this and other emerging markets are getting new life this week. The IMF is and central banks are buying the peso to prevent its free fall. However, the Country's GDP just SHRANK 4%. Some banks are telling folks to by emerging markets now, which doesn't make sense as any price rise is due to central banks buying currency and not due to a strong economy. Who know what kind of dead cat bounce will occur in the next few weeks, but long term prospects are not good. First target at support of 22$, second target at 19$. Peso down over 50% since December and weaker peso compound debt woes.
ARGT: Great long entryI'm long $ARGT indirectly, recently added to all my shares in the local market (yesterday on close to be precise). I anticipate a massive rally from here onwards. People have been pannicking lately, this increased to monstrous levels with the upcoming parliamentary elections, and now the talk of thermonuclear war. Recently I read an anecdote from Mike Epstein, at Tom McClellan's twitter feed. The key point, was that, the market will probably bounce if nuclear war doesn't start...and if it does, who cares if we lose on this trade, right? :/
Here's a link to the tweet, I suck at narrating stuff: twitter.com
Anyway, Argentina is in a very strong uptrend, and the recent pullback is a terrific uptrend for the very significant growth potential it has, discounting political risk and currency risk, if the government eventually delivers. I'm betting they won't disappoint investors.
Best of luck to all of us...
Ivan Labrie.