ARKF trade ideas
Updated ARKF Possible Support at $47I was wrong! the red trendline is what I thought initially was the support trendline. After charting up ARKK, it seems that the lines extending from July would've been better to estimate a bottom. I still regret not selling my leaps on the first initial dead cat bounce and escaping my 70c 1/21/2022 for only a $90 loss. I sold for break even on my 60c 4/16 but for some goddamn reason it didn't cross my mind to sell my leap. I averaged down and my leaps were bought at $690 and $420 respectively. I really want to hold these just for the memesake, but upon looking at the rising treasury yields, I've become quite gay.
I flipped a pretty penny shorting SPY every time it hit my bearish resistance lines, and all my other charts tell me that the dip isn't done dipping. The biggest change here is that upon learning what rising yields does to tech, and that ARKF is tech heavy, my positon has changed in the short term. I plan to sell for a loss and rebuy back in after a confirmed reversal or sideways movement. If I'm lucky, I'll be able to sell at the top tomorrow morning when ARKF hits about $53.
Reason being, if $47 is indeed the bottom, after sideways movement IV will die down and options will be cheaper to buy. Then when it looks like we're out of the woods, I'll start loading up on 4/16 or further calls and leaps. I'm still bullish on the future of fintech.
Lessons learned: there is no perfect chart, and there are multiple levels of support. Trend is your friend. Had I traded my original trendlines, I would've been profitable from last September. The moment trend changes or shit hits the fan, cut losses quick. I did this correctly a while back with PLTR but even after some experience, you can still slip.
Avoiding Beartraps using SMA within TradingView (TV)Beartraps are sudden upward movements in stock price which follow a longer downward movement. These traps can catch the best traders causing you to buy into a stock during a momentary upward trend. By using SMA (simple moving average) I believe that you can examine the historical performance of a stock and avoid being trapped.
I’ve recently been caught in the massive landslide in stock values and have been trying to rationalize holding-firm vs taking a loss before the loss becomes excessive. In a subsequent post I will dive into the mathematics of why taking losses is better than holding onto a losing stock which may not rebound for years. Following the dot-com bubble in 2000, some stocks took 8 to 12 years to recover. If you had held firm, and if the company didn’t go bankrupt, you had a huge interval to break-even on the cost of your investment. But the true cost was much higher because of the normal exponential compounding on profitable investments. With this in mind, it may be smarter to cut losses than to ride-out the loss.
I believe the current situation may be a historical move in stock prices caused by a rapid rise in interest rates. This may be one of those events that has a longer recovery time horizon than a normal drop in price.
I am new to trading (but a seasoned business owner) and I recently made a hard decision to jettison all of my ARK stocks, taking a substantial loss. If I had really considered this method (described below), and used it to trigger my exit from the ARK’s, I would have had substantially lower losses.
One of the most basic indicators we can apply to a chart is the SMA, or Simple Moving Average. When applied to a stock, this is essentially an averaging window, which slides in time. As stock price increases, the price is added to the series and the SMA increases. Similarly as the stock goes down the SMA decreases. This isn’t rocket science.
Discussing the non-obvious - implications of SMA and data frequency:
The SMA is an averaging interval, so depending on the display resolution selected in TV the interval can be for a fraction of a minute, to days. The relationship here is a bit difficult to understand so I will give you some examples.
If the data interval in TV is set to 1-min, and you use an SMA-50, you are averaging (smoothing) 50 data samples (50-minutes) into each plotted SMA point.
If the data interval in TV is set to 1-hour, and you use an SMA-50, you are averaging (smoothing) 50 data samples (50-hours) into each plotted SMA point. Big difference!
Since there are 390 minutes in the trading day, we can build a table showing the number of trading days that correlate to a given SMA using a given data-frequency within TV.
I can’t post my data table here but I will try to post a link to a spreadsheet below.
Here are some values that I’ve found to be useful:
TradingView data frequency SMA I’ve found useful
4-hr SMA-50
2-hr SMA-100
1-hr SMA-200
30-min SMA-400
To try this within Tradingview:
Open your favorite stock
Set the Tradingview data frequency by clicking the box just to the right of the stock symbol in the top-left corner of your Tradingview chart.
Apply the color-alternating 50-SMA:
Add Fx
Search for: Simple Moving Averages by stocksinboxx
Add this to your chart
select properties for this function.
under Style tab at top, disable (un-check) all SMA #'s except for SMA #5
under Inputs tab, scroll down to line that reads: SMA #5, and set whatever interval you like, I have been using 50
click ok
Zoom out to view whatever interval is interesting, try 3-months or 12-months.
You can now go back into the SMA and adjust the interval. As you select a larger number, you will notice fewer color transitions in the SMA trend.
ARKF - Time to accumulate (bullish divergence) ARKF was trending strong away from it's 50 day Moving Average until the market rout last week brought it back down. A very bullish pin bar has formed last Tues after testing the 50 day MA and also the 50% fib retracement level @ 52.60.
Add to this, a bullish divergence is now apparent between Price and RSI. Overall the chart is still looking healthy (supported by a rising 50 day MA). Time for those sitting on the sidelines to dip their toes in especially when it has since traded lower after forming the pin bar (but not breaching stop loss level which should be several ticks below the pin bar's low (52.60). Always protect any profits with trailing stops.
Disclaimer: This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance. Thank you. Feel free to give me your thoughts ! :)
ARKF - BUY ZONEARKF investment fund is developing very well, has good buy signal around the support zone, I bought it, how about you?
ARKF Yet AgainJuicy sub $60 dip I've been waiting for, but since ARKF broke out of my trend channel I might be a little careful since spikes in volume are a good way to create alotta bagholders. I just don't want to end up like ICLN.
However, statistically speaking, ARKF has a good pattern of following Fibonacci retracements. For that, I will be trying to enter at around $55.
SQ has earnings tomorrow, 2/23 so I'm expecting it to sell off on good earnings like the usual. That might bring down PRPL along with it. I've been watching SQ since forever, since sub $200, and I kept thinking wow is SQ really gonna break $200 that soon? Little did I know low interest rates and the printer is still going brrr. The best time to plant a tree was yesterday, and the next best time is tomorrow. But idk man I'm not really tryna plant a tree in the Winter.
ARKF, Fintech Spikes with CryptoWon't get too much into the crypto side, but with Tesla & Apple adopting BTC as forms of payment, obviously very bullish. No doubt Cathie and her team are ahead of the speculative game. Disruptive banking and e-commerce, this is it.
Extremely happy that ARKF recently had weeklies and leaps added to the options chain. I'll be looking to drop a grand in soon and set up a PMCC. However, there has been a spike in volume and the Bollinger Bands are super expanded right now. There's no unusual options activity like I saw with ICLN. Nonetheless, I'll be waiting for a sub $60 entry, or for some less volatility.
Good breakout in the short term. I'll be looking for some shorter term call options to ride the wave up. This isn't exactly a highly traded ETF. Would hate to get fucked by liquidity & bid/ask.
My ARKF Price TargetsHello all,
I am currently hoping to get an entry at $60 and confident that after the dip, this ETF will keep its ascending rise towards $80 and $100.
This ETF is extremely BULLISH especially since previous ARK etf's have successfully risen and are on the rise.
ARKF has a lot of technology under its belt like;
Transaction Innovations
Blockchain Technology
Risk Transformation
Frictionless Funding Platforms
Customer Facing Platforms
New Intermediaries
Thank you and good luck to all.
💎👐
ARKF outperforms the S&P Here is a chart of how well investments perform in ARK Fintech versus the SPY S&P 500 Index.
Typically we look at charts versus fiat currency, but given the stock markets exceptional rally since the crash of March, and with lots of new retail investors, the question is not whether or not one should be in the market, but what kind of investments are the best.
As such, I have compared ARKF to the SPY.
The Y scale is irrelevant in this idea.
The important thing is the percentage with which ARKF and ARK ETFs more generally have outperformed the S&P.
ARK Finance Tech looking very strong, gets Motley Fool plugIt's my impression that financial tech will be a driver in 2021 regardless of how any specific crypto performs. You can see this chart that stepping back Cathie Wood and team have done a very good job maintaining upward momentum. Currently I only own a very small slice but am planning to buy in on pullbacks into the lower channel support trend line.
Do your own analysis for fun and profit! Thanks TradingView!
Not Much Love for ARKFIf you don't know Cathie Woods and her ETFs by now, what rock have you been sleeping under when all these rocks are getting unturned. ARKG recently made the biggest moves as the genomics sector might yield higher returns according to Cathie. There is a lot of overlap between each fund, so I'm unsure if you can compare each fund side by side and say "ARKG will be over $150 soon because ARKK and ARKW are" or not.
I'm primarily a trader because I can currently make more money with options leverage, than buying and holding. I think for smaller accounts like me, the pay off and risk is better in the short term, especially in this extreme bull market. If you're a long term investor with a lower risk allocation and less time on your hands, buying and holding is a no brainer. Trading also comes with a steep learning curve and there's a price to pay.
But, I digress, AKRF and ARKQ are the two funds that are lagging behind, not counting IZRL and PRNT (they're indexed not active). This means ARKF (especially because it has better options volume and is cheaper) has more room to grow with all the buzz happening in the banking and crypto industry rn. Even JPM admits they're fucked if they don't do anything.
D I S R U P T I V E B A N K I N G
All the ARKs look bound for some sort of small correction, especially ARKF on the 4Hr time frame. Long dated call options on some ETFs are practically free money right now.
ETF Finance TechThis is etf riding the wave of development occurring in offline financial transactions. This trend has two years to run so it is not too late.
Financial Technology -winner20sma has been supportive since mid-april, today is a great opportunity for an entry at the current level.
Risk-Reward-Ratio is fantastic if you place a stop-loss-limit below the 20sma.
We are also seeing past resistance from early August, which is now coinciding with current support level.
RSI has not broken 50 since then.
OBV has been up-trending since.
Good luck!
