ARKK trade ideas
ARRK ETF Underwater & Under PressureIn this update we review the recent price action in Cathie Woods banner ETF and identify a couple of potential high probability trade location and potential price objective to play for.
$56 price target. Save some Cash, Start Nibbling from lower 60s. But Best Time to enter would be Jul 22, But more importantly Dollar Cost Averaging. ARK funds are a long term play. It was never meant to Rocket Up the way it did during Covid 2020. Now after its back to earth, look for 5-7 years steady growth.
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 82.22C/104.22P to March 18th... 81.22C/103.22P for a 1.25 credit.
Comments: Rolling this out a touch early due to lack of extrinsic in the short put, which ostensibly increases assignment risk. I improved the short put by a strike, but kept the inversion the same -- a 22 wide for which I've collected 19.50 (See Post Below) plus 1.25 or 20.75, with my resulting cost basis in any stock I might be assigned via the short put 103.22 - 20.75 or 82.47 relative to where it closed today at 75.87. I prefer working these inversions to a point where either I can scratch them out or where taking assignment would be at "something close" (a relative term) to where the stock is currently trading. That way I'm not starting out working a covered call way under water such that selling calls against at or above my cost basis wouldn't be productive.
Naturally, there's a point where you ask yourself whether you've mitigated enough loss such that you can comfortably take the hit, free up the buying power for something more productive and then move on.
Arkk Elliott Wave Analysis$ARKK topped out earlier than everything else it seems.
it is in a clear bear channel after back-testing the bull channel \ failing.
my downside target for $ARKK is at $71 , before resumption to the upside.
it seems everything is going to be moving down until mid September, after which we will look for bullish setups once again.
Trade safe peoples, the trend is your friend 💸
A comparison between ARKK and NASDAQ 100 in 3 diffrent window!Part one: April 2020 to February 2021: ARKK outperform NASDAQ 100: While ARKK gained 289%, NASDAQ 100 gained 84% in the same time frame!
Part two: Feb 2021 to Jan 2022: While ARKK has lost more than 51% Nasdaq 100 gained +9.7%
Part three: March 2020 to Jan 2022: ARKK gained 102% while NASDAQ 100 outperform with a 116% gain in the same time frame!
Part 4: ARKK since inception: Since Oct2014 ARKK gained +273%, in the same time frame NASDAQ gained 264%!
Conclusion: ARKK outperforms NASDAQ by 9% in 8 years..!
Although social media tries to depict a Legendary portfolio manager, Numbers show the ARK team is not what you think they are..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
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ARKK in the golden pocketARKK has reached the golden pocket. If we lose the 0.65 ($77.53) we we likely head down to the 0.78 ($60.23). There is very little support in between these two zones to prevent us from going to the 0.78.
The 200 week moving average could save us around $73.
We're in a confirmed downtrend with increased volume and decreased price.
ARKK: WAIT TO GO LONG AGAINPeople don't understand the real impact of some companies in the coming years, so they think Arkk will die tomorrow.
If Ark will die we'll see delete from the US market companies like:
- Tesla
- Coinbase
- Block
- Teladoc
Seriously, do you think in the next 3-5y will they disappear?
Absurd, markets aren't a straight line always uphill :)
ARKK Bullish Bat C-D leg in progress, more downside in storeARKK not looking good, is of my opinion that markets will sell off this year with a rebound coming after the midterm elections once the democrats have gotten their cheeks clapped
calling it for cloutfull disclosure not trading this. but look at my memelines. looks bottomed out. if not now, next keltner channel squeeze will be the next big move up. you thought you and your uncle were gonna make it big betting against Cathie Woods but shes banging GGWP
$ARKK Lord Says Bounce Cometh ? $ARKK is clearly in a downtrend, however I think we get a bounce in the short term before further downside.
RSI approaching oversold and volume appears to be showing seller's exhaustion.
Plan is to play the bounce going long ST calls, take profits around 91 zone then go short again...
Note, not much support below, and ST long idea is invalidated on a break below $75
The most significant decline in ARKK's historyToday we will take a look at ARKK. The main element we have to comment on is the current decline, the biggest in the ETF history.
The current drawdown is at 51%, and we have three other situations in the past where we observed declines of 30% or more.
Here are some key ideas you can use to increase the odds of engaging on a successful setup on the ETF, assuming that eventually, we will have a new bull run.
* AVOID trading below the descending trendline . A trendline is telling you something "above assume X, below assume Y" in this case, the price is clearly below the descending trendline. Therefore we should avoid any type of swing setup mainly because there are no signs that the current bearish trend has finished. If we have to take a really bad scenario for the ETF based on the current technical elements, we can observe a -60% decline with a major bearish target on the highs of 2020.
* Study the 3 previous scenarios . IF you want to catch the next massive movement of the ETF, then you need to study how the transition happened in the past, where the price was on a severe drawdown, and then we saw new impulses. So, if you want to understand what's going on, start studying the previous 3 scenarios and look for patterns.
My current view is that assuming the trending characteristic this asset has, I'm more than interested in developing swing setups here. However, at the moment, I'm WAITING; my two filters are:
1) The price has reached the major bearish target at 62-61 (start thinking in bullish opportunities)
2) The price is getting close to breaking the descending trendline (start thinking in bullish opportunities)
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
$ARKK Long Term Idea$ARKK has had a large selloff after making a blow off top past the 4.236 fib last year, currently down over 50% from the highs. I believe the bottom is in around the 0.618 fib here in the $77-80 range and $ARKK can start a recovery with targets of new ATH $200 minimum. Starting a long term position here in $ARKK at $80.
Buy @ $80.00 Price Target @ $200.00
Ark to 130 by April !Peep the beautiful chart, a dip buyers paradise listen to the Phantom! April 130 calls are .20
game over for ARKKinnovation, innovation.
bubble bubble.
game over for ARKK. had a good run in the bubble mania
phase though. some ppl made money.
Cathy says shes scared of deflation, which means she's scared
of Fed not providing more loose money. Fed isnt tightening really, its just not expanding the money supply quick enough.
ARKKAt 1.618 extension of the Covid crash. 200 a few dollar below. RSI oversold. Volume is picking up. Watching for now.
ARKK Short strangle for a $2.79 creditFEB 18 STO 76 P
FEB 18 STO 99.22 C
Pop 69%
Delta 4.16
P50 80%
M Profit 279
M Loss Infinity
Buypower effect -$860.50
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 89.22 Short Call to 82.22... for a 2.51 credit.
Comments: More defense as this underlying continues to implode. Total credits collected of 16.99 (See Post Below) plus the 2.51 here equals 19.50. The resulting inversion is, unfortunately, 22 strikes wide -- 2.50 greater than the total of credits I've collected. This means that I won't be able to scratch it out during this cycle regardless of what happens with price, but will have to roll out for duration if I want to attempt to do that until I've collected more credits than the width of the inversion. Alternatively, I can consider taking the loss and moving on, but the best case loss scenario at the moment is a 2.50 loss (assuming price moves back between the strikes).
ARKKDaily Chart Report
ARKK did a nice retest of the breakout and now it's headed lower. The next support level is at 74 also the full measured move points to the 74 level.
$ARKK No Volume under 80I am long many tech stocks in $ARKK, but this chart does scare me. There is almost zero volume under 80. The gap could fill if this level is lost. No doubt that would be a generational buying opportunity if it did occur, but I'm hoping that the 50% fib holds (which is at the 80 price level).
Cathie Wood Deflation ARKK: ShortCathie has been in over drive selling we book with her deflation theory and innovation stocks as the principal reason her fund will outperform.
The in period her fund is down almost 50%, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway is up almost 35%.
In order for Cathie’s ARK fund to beat Berkshire should would need a 85% turnaround. Usually takes years to achieve this performance
Looks like deep contraction will confine for ARK.
It is in a 5 wave impulse down and getting pressed down further by the moving averages. Recently had a death cross on the 50/200 MA.
Cathie’s response, in a recent interview, to the poor performance was a result of the Algo traders.
Sounds like the classic example governments use to explain when the ccy is taking a hit. Ie the speculators.
$ARKK AnalysisAs mentioned above in last weeks post I was expecting a reversal off of $93, and while the bounce did happen out of my projected buy zone, it was met with relentless selling pressure once reaching the $98 level. Price is still in an overall downtrend, but as we approach the key $80 level I am certainly watching for a bounce out of the demand zone depicted in the chart. If $80 is lost, there is no telling where the selling may end, thus it is the only support level I have noted for this week. $ARKK needs to reclaim $90 for any bullish action to ensue.
S&P500 is an Indicator of ARKK !!!Warren buffet said no one can beat Index Fund, we saw rise and fall of ARKK mostly boost with pandemic free money, and falling to meet SP500 chart.
If ARKK will drop equal to SP500 or below means old man was right in his words with huge experience and wisdom.
