ARKKAt 1.618 extension of the Covid crash. 200 a few dollar below. RSI oversold. Volume is picking up. Watching for now.
ARKK trade ideas
ARKK Short strangle for a $2.79 creditFEB 18 STO 76 P
FEB 18 STO 99.22 C
Pop 69%
Delta 4.16
P50 80%
M Profit 279
M Loss Infinity
Buypower effect -$860.50
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 89.22 Short Call to 82.22... for a 2.51 credit.
Comments: More defense as this underlying continues to implode. Total credits collected of 16.99 (See Post Below) plus the 2.51 here equals 19.50. The resulting inversion is, unfortunately, 22 strikes wide -- 2.50 greater than the total of credits I've collected. This means that I won't be able to scratch it out during this cycle regardless of what happens with price, but will have to roll out for duration if I want to attempt to do that until I've collected more credits than the width of the inversion. Alternatively, I can consider taking the loss and moving on, but the best case loss scenario at the moment is a 2.50 loss (assuming price moves back between the strikes).
ARKKDaily Chart Report
ARKK did a nice retest of the breakout and now it's headed lower. The next support level is at 74 also the full measured move points to the 74 level.
$ARKK No Volume under 80I am long many tech stocks in $ARKK, but this chart does scare me. There is almost zero volume under 80. The gap could fill if this level is lost. No doubt that would be a generational buying opportunity if it did occur, but I'm hoping that the 50% fib holds (which is at the 80 price level).
Cathie Wood Deflation ARKK: ShortCathie has been in over drive selling we book with her deflation theory and innovation stocks as the principal reason her fund will outperform.
The in period her fund is down almost 50%, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway is up almost 35%.
In order for Cathie’s ARK fund to beat Berkshire should would need a 85% turnaround. Usually takes years to achieve this performance
Looks like deep contraction will confine for ARK.
It is in a 5 wave impulse down and getting pressed down further by the moving averages. Recently had a death cross on the 50/200 MA.
Cathie’s response, in a recent interview, to the poor performance was a result of the Algo traders.
Sounds like the classic example governments use to explain when the ccy is taking a hit. Ie the speculators.
$ARKK AnalysisAs mentioned above in last weeks post I was expecting a reversal off of $93, and while the bounce did happen out of my projected buy zone, it was met with relentless selling pressure once reaching the $98 level. Price is still in an overall downtrend, but as we approach the key $80 level I am certainly watching for a bounce out of the demand zone depicted in the chart. If $80 is lost, there is no telling where the selling may end, thus it is the only support level I have noted for this week. $ARKK needs to reclaim $90 for any bullish action to ensue.
S&P500 is an Indicator of ARKK !!!Warren buffet said no one can beat Index Fund, we saw rise and fall of ARKK mostly boost with pandemic free money, and falling to meet SP500 chart.
If ARKK will drop equal to SP500 or below means old man was right in his words with huge experience and wisdom.
$ARKK - Weekly TF analysis-Primary W4 target zone (38.2 - 50)
-Nearing channel bottom
-Reached 1st fib target for Y leg of W4 (-23.6)
-Confluent support of 38.2 fib and channel bottom
-Weekly RSI at march 2020 covid lows
-Downside risk defined at 72.50
From the looks of it, we might be nearing a bottom on growth stocks. Keep in mind this is a weekly chart so if we do continue down, it could drag out for another few weeks. However, downside risk is defined at the 50% fib, at 72.50.
I would start building a position from here and continue building as long as ARKK is above 72.5. ARK's time horizons are 5 years, and market jitters will last 5 months, maybe a year if we're really fucked.
Ask yourself, did Cathie Wood and her team suddenly become stupid over night, or does the market work in cycles?
WHEN YOU BAYBY TESLA FAILS..!Tesla is present in almost all ARK's EETs, when it fails the whole system fails!!!
I believe miss Woods is in big trouble, and soon she has to find a substitution for tesla , otherwise, all her fame will vanish like a rockstar with a single hot albume!
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 94.22 Short Call to 89.22... for a 1.74 credit.
Comments: Yowsa. This continues to implode, so continuing to manage it defensively ... . As of my last roll, I'd collected 15.25 in credits. (See Post Below). With this roll, I've collected a total of 16.99 for what is now an inverted 15-wide: the 89.22C/104.22P with a downside break even of 104.22 - 16.99 or 87.23 relative to today's closing price of 85.58, so I've still got some work to do to get my cost basis at or below where the underlying is currently trading. Alternatively, I need the markets to do some of the work for me by giving me a bounce.
Starting to buy ARKK here.Not a big stock guy but shifting capitol from crypto to diversify into some investments that actually represent tangible companies that make things lol. Strategy is to buy stocks/ETF's at standard classical pattern supports that are down 30-60% and let it ride. I am betting that 8 out of 10 stocks I am about to punt will not go to zero and that 40-60% discounts is a good deal. Falling wedge here and a nice dogi daily candle forming. Not advise archiving thoughts.
ARKK forecast in the next 1-2 months..!10 months ago when I published my views about ARKK, I received so many bad comments..!
I did not change my mind and never published a Buy analysis on ARKK, Why?
Because I studied ARK invest at least for one year and I read the CEO background and her track record from the beginning!
So many people who believe in ARK invest just looking at the last 5 years, but CEO has a fascinating story in 2008..!
"Worst Performance" in 2008 and she did repeat it in 2021: -24% (40% from all-time high) in a year all indexes were positive between 13.7% to 27%..!
Now the question is what is her big plan for 2022???
This year will be much more difficult..!
I think her position as CEO of ARK invest will be challenged sooner or later in 2022..!
She was wrong about Energy and Financial sectors and paid the price for that..!
I think ARKK will go down to 70 in the first quarter of 2022..!
Updated target for ARKKYou may not believe it but I saw this coming almost 5-6 weeks ago! People trashed me and praised Cathie Wood.
Still don’t believe check the related post to understand the difference between analysis and speculation..!
Short $ARKK CMP $93.86Short $ARKK CMP $93.86. $ARKK failed to maintain the momentum. Volume is drying. Did not make higher high. Expect it to fall to $85 area or further down. Holding near very important level of support.
ARKK storylineSome annotations on the $ARRK chart.
My opinion is that when we break 80 we go straight to the 40's area.
The pump was the wrongdoing of Masa, Billy & others.
Options, gamma, low liquidity, etc.
Nobody really bought there, I doubt they will be buyers on the way down.
Fast.
ARKK Stage 4 MarkdownToday, the Fed released their "Fed Minutes" and showed they're planning on acting more hawkish than everyone previously thought. The market sold off hard, with growth taking the biggest hit for obvious reasons.
Looking at ARKK and a bunch of other growth names, it appears that we're in the semi-early innings of a stage 4 markdown if the Fed continues down this hawkish route. If so, think there's a decent shot that we head towards the pre-pandemic high as the Fed unwinds and the market prices this in.
In 2018, the taper tantrum lasted 3 months from peak to trough. Obviously depends on what the Fed does from here, but be prepared for this scenario (posted on chart)
Btw, if this plays out, all risk assets will get hit hard including crypto.
ARKK - Hydrophones Picking Up NoiseWood's Hole has been busy with the creaking sounds from the Deep Blue.
Small Caps within the Covenant have been leaking badly, some now down 70&.
Full bubble engaged.
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Innovation Spec, Meta, and Cathy all wondering why, of course, it will be another
dip buy for Future Value.
We disagree with her Thesis and believe recalibration of her Grift is needed.
A carnie is a carnie.
The Big Top fire is spreading, Noah is loading the critters, while the mid 60s
appear to be too much of an angle for the ARKK sub to withstand.
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100% CASH on Close.
Ruh-RohARKK breaking lower, surprising nobody. with rates and sentiment where they are this could have some downside left in it.
Arkk last line in the sand?!We have been non stop getin rejected. Arkk can remain bullish although 91-90 was lost..and that was a weekly ichumchi converging trendline, both monthly and weekly EMA ribbon remains intact. As long as we hold 83.-83.50 area as support this can see a big bounce. If we And held below that monthly support rages down to 74.75 area as the lowest support that has to hold before he can completely be straight up bearish. As of now I’m analyzing and speculation 83-83.50 as a solid area for a bounce trade
Capitulated on ARKKI put my faith in Cathie and engaged in the Twitter spat between her and Puru. That ego cost me. My stops below the price action range have triggered and if the Weekly bar closes where it is now AMEX:ARKK will be in a confirmed bearish trend. I'm not going to baghold and hope. I've closed out my shares of ARKK but left on the June Calls which I'll let come back or expire.
ARKKARKK looks like it's getting some life. We are seeing some high volume green days. It look like it is forming an inverse H&S. A break above the top trend line can take it to the 105 resistance.
$ARKK Analysis 30m scale$ARKK on the smaller time frames is providing some great trading opportunities. The volatility is there and we are starting off a new year. I am looking for a long opportunity around the $93-$94 range.
Support: $94.00, $93.00
Resistance: $96.50, $100.00
