#ARKK to have a strong recovery Target 1 I expect to come quite quickly ... closely correlating to a strong bounce in #BITCOIN
My overall thesis for an Equity top in April 20024 is now firmly in place.
ARKK trade ideas
Opening (IRA): ARKK May 17th 44 Monied Covered Call... for a 43.00 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 52.7/38.7.
Going monied here, buying a Johnny one lot and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to take advantage of elevated IV on the call side and to have built-in position defense via the short call. This is slightly shorter duration than I like to go (39 DTE), but I also don't have a ton on here, so scrounging around for decent IV underlyings. Cathie also doesn't pay divvies but once a year in December, so there's no point in hanging around in the stock for any period of time.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max on the whole shebang (stock + short call) and/or roll out the short call if it hits 50% max to reduce cost basis further.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis In Stock/Break Even: 43.00/share
Max Profit: 1.00
ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.33%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.16%
As previously noted in my other monied covered call posts, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment where you don't get BP relief going short put. On margin, short put will be the most BP efficient.
Does ARK Innovation Have Downside Risk?The ARK Innovation ETF has chopped in a range for the last two years, and some traders may expect a push back to longer-term lows.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the rounded top in February and March. It was slightly below the peak of December 2023. The lower monthly high may suggest bears remain in control over the longer term.
A sharp drop in early April followed the topping pattern. That may add to the possibility of sellers taking control.
Second, Wednesday’s bounce retraced about half the decline. A lower high at this spot could confirm a downward move has begun. Prices also stalled at the February 5 low. Has old support become new resistance?
Next, ARKK is back below its 200-day simple moving average.
Finally, MACD has been falling.
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK):
1-year: +24.2%
5-years: +1.97%
Since Inception: +11.35%
(As of March 28, 2024)
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ARKK Elliot Wave ABC CorrectionARKK started its rally in November 2023 and reached $54.52 in December 2023. Since this date, according to Elliot Wave Analysis, it may be making an ABC correction. ARKK, which made the A wave by falling to $ 44.63, then rallied to $52.06 with the B corrective wave.
As long as ARKK stays below $52.06, ARKK may be making wave C. At the end of this movement, it may fall between $40.35 and $42.59.
📊 ARK Innovation ETF Going Down➖ On the 26-Dec session we have an inverted hammer candlestick pattern to signal the top of a trend.
This inverted hammer is followed by four weeks red; Inverted hammer as reversal signal confirmed.
ARKK produced an upper wick this week, now trades red.
➖ The action moved below EMA100, mid-term bearish potential confirmed.
Multiple bearish signals confirmed. We can expect lower for this ETF, easily.
Namaste.
ARKK Is this the right time to buy 'Innovation'?Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the November 13 2023 bullish break-out. This puts the price in the middle of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the December 28 2022 bottom.
As long as the price action closes the 1D candles above the 1D MA200, we expect an instant rebound. If it breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), then our target will be 66.00 (+47.67%, which is the shortest rally it has had within the Channel Up.
A closing below the 1D MA200 though should go for at least a -23.34% decline from the top, which will be our buy entry for the long-term, but our Target will be modified to 61.50.
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$ARKK - Wyckoff Sign of strengthLooking for continued consolidation within this zone above 46, and a retest of the range highs. This would confirm a partial decline and statistically favor a breakout of the range.
Id look at this as the sign of strength, as we have diverged from the bear market downtrend, made a new high locally after a second higher low, while maintaining support above a historical inflection zone .
Above 55, id look for a pause at 65, and then continuation to 78 for the 1618 extension, and 89-98 for the measured move and equilibrium.
Tracking The Footprints of WRB GapsThis is the first in a series of posts on Gaps. Gaps are a sudden supply/demand imbalance that shows up in the price bars of a chart, It's the expansion that comes after a contraction. Gaps will show us a significant area of buyers/sellers that take control and when they lose that control.
In the video, I discuss and define a Wide Range Bar (WRB) Gap and show how to mark it out on a chart. A WRB Gap is a bar larger than the last 3 bars with a space between the previous bar and the subsequent bar. We will be marking the base of the gap. If it's an up Gap, mark out the bottom 1/3 of the bar, if it's a down gap, mark out the upper 1/3 of the bar.
We can then make observations about how price interacts with the base of this gap when or if it gets there. Then begin to notice where in the swing process the Gap is happening. Don't make conclusions, just observe and learn.
There are many ways to trade Gaps but first, we must first lay out some foundations and then come up with objective ways to see them. For now, simply look for the biggest ugliest bars on your chart and mark them out and observe. These are footprints that we can follow and track.
Shane
The 46/49 range may present an improved risk-reward opportunityThe current pattern in the ARKK ETF suggests a possible upward movement towards the 60/70 range by June 2024. However, if the stock shows weakness and falls into the 46 to 49 range, it may present a more balanced risk and reward scenario.
$ARKK - VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern)AMEX:ARKK Mark Minervini made famous the VCP as a set-up. It is also simply a wedging pattern that can break either way. However, where there was a previous uptrend, like in this chart, the direction of the break is usually to the upside. The path of least resistance is a continuation of the previous trend.
ARKK had a move of over 60% from the Oct 30th low to the Dec 27th high. It pulled back about 18% from that high and has been digesting since and is now down less than 8% from that most recent high.
As in life there are no guarantees on this. But here is my plan, I have an alert set on the upper downtrend line. Should that trigger, I will look to go long with a stop either below that day’s low or a close below the 20 EMA (White). All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
ARKK could be set for sharp bounce. Here's a previous forecast on ARKK forecasting a possible low in this area.
Spiking out the low of a parabolic rally is a very common occurrence in this type of pattern. It's a big panic point when all gains have been lost even if in very early to the rally. Often we see ultimate lows in these areas (Commonly off slow ranges) and even with things going much lower we see aggressive bounces.
Here's an example.
ARKK: Setting up for a breakout above $54. Target $98!!There is an inverse head and shoulder getting formed on the ARKK weekly chart. The pattern materialized after a weekly close above $54.5.
The target after the breakout comes to $98 levels.
The strength of the move can be confirmed by:
1. Rising MACD and RSI Moving Average and
2. ADX is above 20
To maintain confidence in the setup, i would like to see the price within the upsloping channel.
Momentum, Growth & Innovation: Updated WatchlistMomentum, Growth & Innovation: Updated Watchlist
www.tradingview.com
My updated trading watchlist includes a diverse range of companies across various sectors, prominently featuring technology, healthcare, and finance, among others. These companies, currently part of ARK Invest's holdings, are identified as being in a confirmed Stage 2 uptrend, indicating strong bullish trends according to Mark Minervini's methodology. This analysis will highlight key sectors represented, providing a broad understanding of the market dynamics at play.
Technology Sector
Companies like NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft) NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) and NASDAQ: NASDAQ:GOOG (Alphabet) underscore the significant emphasis on technology, particularly in semiconductors, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence. These firms are at the forefront of innovation, driving trends in digital transformation, and represent strong growth opportunities as they capitalize on increasing demand for technology solutions.
Healthcare and Biotechnology
NASDAQ: NASDAQ:IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals) NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RXRX (Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc) NYSE: NYSE:NET (Cloudflare) and NASDAQ: NASDAQ:VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated) highlight the focus on healthcare and biotechnology. This sector benefits from ongoing advancements in medical research, genetic sequencing, and personalized medicine. Companies in this space are pivotal in addressing global health challenges, including new therapies and vaccines, reflecting potential for significant impact and investment returns.
Finance and Cryptocurrency
With holdings like NYSE: NYSE:ICE (Intercontinental Exchange Inc) NASDAQ: NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase Global Inc) and AMEX: BITO, there's a clear interest in financial services and the burgeoning field of cryptocurrencies. These selections point to the growing influence of digital assets and blockchain technology in reshaping financial transactions, investment strategies, and asset management.
Consumer Discretionary and E-Commerce
Companies such as NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) NYSE: NYSE:SHOP (Shopify Inc.) and NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MELI (MercadoLibre) represent the e-commerce and consumer discretionary sectors. Their inclusion underscores the continued growth in online retail and digital consumer behaviors, accelerated by global shifts towards online shopping and digital platforms for goods and services.
Aerospace and Defense
With NYSE: NASDAQ:KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc) NYSE: NYSE:LHX (L3Harris) and NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AVAV (AeroVironment Inc.) there's an acknowledgment of the importance of aerospace and defense. These companies are involved in cutting-edge technology for national security, space exploration, and unmanned aerial vehicles, sectors expected to see substantial growth due to increased defense spending and interest in space.
Conclusion
My watchlist reflects a strategic focus on high-growth sectors poised for continued expansion and innovation. By targeting companies within technology, healthcare, finance, consumer discretionary, and aerospace & defense, the list aligns with sectors that not only have strong current performance but also hold future growth potential.
ARKK comparison to NVIDIASee my recent published chart on NVIDIA. Now look at the ARKK comparison.
Red point of control "1" (44) was when ARKK was at all time highs 160
Yellow point of control "2" is the current poc (38)
ARKK bull put spread at 42ARKK when modeled from the Oct 2023 rally base
shows an inflection at VWAP 1x as support and 2x as resistance.
It's been hovering just above -1 sig where it touched a Weekly
level a whopping 3x. Yesterday it swept below it and this morning
it's rallying on the 5 min. If it had run the weekly level lows it'd be another story
But for now I'm viewing it as a liquidity sweep opposite a double top high at VWAP near 48.
So I'm going to bet that ARKK is holding -1 sig and will rally to +1 sig near 51
holding above VWAP for the next 1 month.
I sold 42 that is just above -2 sig 45 DTE yesterday Tues 2/6/2024 for 0.27 above the mid at the time.
And 20 mins after I sold it, I'm looking at the quotes and they're jumping to .40 and .50.
As price is going UP!!!!!
So I got shafted by my broker with bad mid pricing that wasn't stable.
And today, next day Wed, the underlying is higher on a rally yesterday afternon and prices are like .33 to .37.
So I'm looking to exit this as soon as I'm above water on the position.
F'kn ridiculous.
Either these are so illiquid at the moment or my broker shafted me.
Symbol ARKK
Open Date 2/6/2024
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 3/22/2024
Short Strike 42
Long Strike 40
Price to Open 0.27
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 6.41
Return on Risk 15.6%
Opening DTE 45
1 Day ROI% 0.35%
Max Annual ROI % 126.6%
Buyback to Close
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date
Closing Price
Closed Margin ROI %
Closed Annual ROI %
$ARKK spotted basing on 50EMA after higher lowsSpotted AMEX:ARKK resting on 50EMA yellow, waiting for next leg up. Beat entry if spike up above base imo. DYDD.
ARKK Weekly and Monthly breakout to 60 or 70sARKK
First Target 55, then breakout higher into the 60s and 70s.
I think 55 by end of year and 60s Jan 2024
Possible retracement to 50s if 55 fails to hold.
$ARKK Bull Run - Wyckoffian Volume to Price AnalysisI believe AMEX:ARKK is testing volume area high in this sideways trading range as a last point of support after Weiss OI waves showed significant buying and weakening sell-off retracements. A bounce and new high off VAH (Volume Area High) could spell mark-up for $ARKK.
Set-up currently looks very bullish.
Targets above: $54, $60, $70, $81, $90
Stop Loss would be: $43
ARKK Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 011924Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 47/61.80%
Chart time frame : D
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
ARKK Finding Support on the 65minARKK found support last week around the $48.50 area, and is currently surfing the 200 EMA on the 65min chart. Two open gaps to the upside leave this with plenty of room to run back up to the local high from late December.
Watchlist: ARK Holdings in Stage 2 UptrendFusion Watchlist: Harnessing the Power of Minervini's Momentum and Cathie Wood's Innovation
Introduction:
Welcome to our exclusive Fusion Watchlist, where we merge the technical mastery of Mark Minervini with the forward-thinking investment style of Cathie Wood. This list features a curated selection of stocks from ARK Invest's portfolio that exhibit a confirmed Stage 2 uptrend, signifying robust momentum and growth potential.
Strategy Overview:
Minervini's Influence: We apply Minervini's rigorous criteria to identify stocks in a Stage 2 uptrend, marked by strong price action, above-average volume, and healthy relative strength. This ensures we're focusing on stocks exhibiting true market leadership and momentum.
Cathie Wood's Vision: From ARK Invest's holdings, we pick companies at the forefront of innovation and disruptive technologies. These are firms with transformative potential in their respective sectors, aligning with Wood's philosophy of investing in the future.
Watchlist Criteria:
Stage 2 Uptrend Confirmation:
Each stock has been meticulously analyzed to confirm it's in a Stage 2 uptrend, as per Minervini's principles. This includes a breakout from a proper base, rising moving averages, and strong institutional support.
Innovation and Growth Focus:
Selections are limited to ARK Invest's holdings, specifically targeting companies poised for significant growth due to technological or sectoral innovation.
Diverse Sector Representation: While focusing on innovation, we ensure a diverse sector allocation, spreading risk and capturing opportunities across various industries.
Fundamental Strength: Beyond technicals, we also consider fundamental strength, including revenue growth, market positioning, and long-term potential.
The Fusion Watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
Conclusion:
This watchlist represents a unique synergy of momentum trading and visionary investing. By leveraging Minervini's technical prowess and Wood's knack for identifying future market leaders, we aim to offer a dynamic and potent approach to swing trading. Stay tuned for regular updates and insights as market conditions evolve.
Pay attention. Bear market is over for ARK Pay attention. Bear market is over for ARK. Head and shoulders bottom.
Intuition stock $ARKK to $39Not much to say except I asked and the answer came in immediately. When I get these names instantly in my mind, they are usually the best. Also, I tried to ask how long and got 10 days. That lands on a Sunday though, but just telling everything.
I asked for a number and 39 came in. Funny that just so happens to bring a gap fill. If it's like the MS idea, it could overshoot, but I'm not going to be greedy about it. Super grateful when these things work out so well!
