ARKK trade ideas
Closing (IRA): ARKK June 18th 87.96 Short Put... for a .26/contract credit.
Comments: In for 1.94/contract (See Post Below); out for .26/contract with 21 days to go. 1.68 ($168) profit per contract. Still have some July on ... .
ARKK INNOVATION ETF (ARKK) • Volumes suggest bottom may be inARKK volumes on 3D and weekly look particularly interesting.
Nice V-shaped signatures suggest significant sell from weak hand into strong ones.
There is however the possibility of a double bottom formation with lows around 94 but overall I think this correction has ended or at least pretty soon.
Invalidation of this idea is trading bellow 90k until get above 100 again.
The 122 is a significant price level to pay attention. It's the resistance that will become support once broken.
ARKK break to 130+ or fall to 90?ARKK seems to be in a massive falling wedge on the daily.
If it can clear 109.60 (21EMA) resistance, I see this running to 116.25 which just so happens to be the 50EMA, 38.2 fib, and the old trend-line support from July 2020.
Clearing this resistance area will break the downtrend and could possibly send this to the 128-130 zone by next month.
If ~116.25 can not be cleared, I will look to short ARKK down to $90
I previously made a post before on why I was overall short-bias on ARKK and Cathie Woods, if playing monthly long calls I strongly suggest you do not size too big!
Good luck, Happy trading!
Opening (IRA): ARKK July 16th 92 Short Put... for a 1.94/contract credit.
Comments: Still pretty weak here with fairly high implied volatility (30-day at 46.7%). Selling the 16 delta strike. 2.15% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 14.8% annualized.
ARKK will sink more if you wait for a while!Why I think ARKK is in Bearish Trend and will sink more:
1- 39% correction in 61 trading days
2- Trading below 200 EMA
3- Negative money flow since March 2021
Main resistance levels: 109-111-117
Support Level: 97-100
ARKK SELL/SHORT ALREADY ACTIVE to 60.50 - 82.50 (Next buy entry)TICKER CODE: ARKK
Company Name: ARK Innovation ETF
Industry: Financial | Exchange Traded Fund | USA
Position Proposed: SELL
Technical Analysis
1. Falling Wedge Pattern (Potentially forming)
2. Large Head & Shoulders (Completed)
3. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.786 is at the market key structure
4. Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit Level 1 (Grey Zone) Also the length of Flagpole
5. Monthly chart was recently in the overbought range
(will be looking for it to fall back in stable range, hence the fall)
Analytical Assumption
Monthly chart has not done any proper retracement
to any market structure hence, we are looking for a deep pullback.
This deep pullback will hit previous resistance which is now the new support
Sell Exit: 110 (would be the nearest)
Buy Entry: NOT READY (60.50-82.50) - Should be ready around August - End 2021 (will update entry potential on closer date)
1st Partial Take Profit: 190.20 (July-End 2022)
2nd Partial Take Profit: 270.00 (2023)
All take profit may differ accordingly depending on available data (NOT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT)
Stop Loss: 50.5
This chart will be monitored and updated on a closer date or when more data is presented.
The Glorious Days of ARK Invest has been passed...I have published many short analyses on ARKK, and other funds managed by ARK Invest and Cathie Wood.
Some people may think I have personal problems with her or ARK Invest, but this is not true. I do research and analysis in the financial markets since 12 years ago. I started this when I was a 4th-grade medical student.
Since I was, and I am a bookworm, it wouldn't be a false claim if I say I have read more than 100k pages of books and financial articles in the past 12 years! (my best record ever is reading a 680 pages book in less than 2 days)
My favorite Topic in the financial world is Bubbles and the different stages of their development.
Why financial bubbles are so attractive? Because bubbles are the real game-changers! They create new generations of millionaires and billionaires while making many broke! I believe Bubbles are a "Zero Summation" game. From beginning to end no real value is created during any financial bubble!
Those who get on board in the primary stages of any bubble will be the winners if they are not greedy and take the primary capital out of the trade at right time! These people are not average investors, and usually are less than 1% of the investors' population.
I believe ARK invest did a great job between March 18, 2020, to February 16, 2021. ARKK their flagship fund made +305% in profits in less than 11 months! 3 times more than Russell 2000, 4 times more than NASDAQ, 6 times more than S&P 500 and Dow jones!
From a financial point of view, this is one of the best performances ever, no doubt. They achieved this in one of the best bullish rallies ever, the second-best in the last 35 years, after that 9 months from June 1999 to March 2000 when NASDAQ experienced a +140% growth. Do you know what happened after that? NASDAQ corrected more than 83% in the next 31 months, in the financial world it is called the ".com bubble" since then.
NASDAQ Performance in the last 35 years:
NET NET Fund an Example of "Thematic Investing" 24 years ago
It would be interesting for you to review the NET NET fund story between 1997 and 2000. The NetNet Fund, which is focused on Internet stocks, for three years rode the tech bubble into the stratosphere and ballooned from about $10 million in assets in 1997, a year after its inception, to about $12 billion when Munder closed the fund in April 2000.
Could ARK Invest be the next NET NET fund?
I believe to answer this question we should review their portfolio management when the market went south. For instance:
A: ARKK Feb 19th 2020 - March 18th 2020:
B: ARKK Sep 2018 - Dec2018:
C: ARKK Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
I think it would even be better to look at a bigger picture and check the ARKK performance from start in October 2014 to February 2021:
The bright side +668% gain in the first 6 years. (76 Months)
The dark side: losing 40% of whatever they had achieved in the past 6.5 years in the last 4 months:
By now you must know that she and her "Thematic Investing" project is in very very big trouble! Although she successfully managed to manipulate the market using the power of social media in the past 6 years, she forgot that this only works in a Bullish market. Usually, when bullish markets reach their ends, they start correction from the most ballooned assets!
In our case, you can check EV makers and Biotechnology companies! Most of them corrected more than 50% in the past 4 months!
For instance Tesla and Crisper, you can find here stories about how promising the future will be for these two companies:
Tesla: lost 39% of its value in the past 4 months:
Crisper: lost 56% of its value in the past 4 months:
I think I provide enough examples to show that the ARK Invest management team has very good performance in bullish rallies but they have no skill to manage their fund during previous corrections in the market! In the above example, you see during the past major corrections they always underperform and correct more than all four major indexes.
Things will become more interesting when you notice she invested 99.72% of the available cash, and she hopes for market recovery! The top 10 holdings of ARKK with almost 50% weight, have lost their value between 18-52% in the past 3 months!
If you patient enough to read this article you must know I provide evidence for all the claims!
In conclusion, I believe ARK Invest did not invest in the growth stocks because they believe in the future of these companies, they invest in these companies because they knew they were able to sell their stories to inexperienced investors using their pyramid social media networks and on the top of all Youtube!
The very same method used by Elon Musk in the cryptocurrency market using his Twitter account and Chamath Palihapitiya using SPACS...!
Don't forget the author of this article warned everyone about
1- EV makers correction as early as February 18th, 2021:
2- Bitcoin Crash as early as April 13th, 2021 when it was 63.8K:
3- Tesla correction as early as February 17, 2021:
4- ARKK correction February 22, 2021
5- The cryptocurrency market crash on May 14, 2021, exactly 72 hours before it happened. ( I updated my status on all my social media and TradingView and warned about the Whole Cryptocurrency Market will Crash soon)
Moshkelgosha
$ARKK By request for PC Butterfly Check this Butterfly pattern on ARkk Potential big opportunity if price action gives us signal to get long, know what you are looking for in PRZ b4 entry.
Trigger, take profits adn stop all entered
Target 1: $128 - Slingshot to volume whip bandTarget 1: $128 - Slingshot to volume whip band
Breakdown of 'w' support
Second support line found at ~$100
ARKK/SPY nice bounce off support, due for a relief rallyWe could be about to see a big relief rally in the arkk complex. The narrative of the "reflation" trade is absolutely deafening right now, and been going for over 6 months.
Will ARKK lose 100 tomorrow?I was hoping ARKK had finally found a base late last week give some hope for a rally in small cap growth stocks. That was until Cathy Wood got Musked on Sunday afternoon. Elon's tweets have sent BTCUSD into dump mode leaving the ARK funds exposed through there exposure to GBTC, SI, TSLA, COIN ect. If 100 breaks I would not be surprised to see a flush down to the 80/85 area. The funds and individual holdings have been under short attack recently and this will only put a bigger target on CW back. BTCUSD needs to hold the 42K zone to avoid this fate. Let's see how it plays out.
The Week Ahead: ARKG, ARKK, MJ, ARKQ, GDXJ, IWM/RUT PremiumHere's what's paying for premium sellers as of Friday's close ... .
For those of you not familiar with my general process, my general order of preference is to trade (a) broad market; (b) sector exchange-traded funds; and (c) single name, in that order. If broad market isn't paying, I look at exchange-traded funds, and -- if those aren't paying -- I look at single name. This week, I think that there are opportunities to sell premium in at least sector exchange-traded funds, so I don't feel the need to delve into what single name is paying and haven't bothered to screen single name here.
In any event, I first screen out exchange-traded funds* that do not have a 30-day implied volatility of at least 35%.
Then, I price out what the 45 day at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of strike price with the notion being that if the short straddle is paying, then most other premium selling setups I undertake will also be paying, whether it be short puts, short strangles, iron condors/flies, or short verticals/credit spreads. Here, my cut-off is generally a risk premium (credit received)/short straddle ratio of greater than 10%.
In light of this, I probably wouldn't bother playing FXI here, even though it has a 30-day implied of 36% and one that is relatively high in the range (at the 63rd percentile) because it just isn't paying enough -- 6.18% as a function of strike price. In comparison, it looks like "The Ark Complex" is paying, even though some expiry availability/liquidity makes the exchange-traded funds in this grouping less than ideal to trade.
Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Options Liquidity and 30-Day Implied >35%:
ARKG (Genomics) (60 rank/61 30-Day): June 18th (33 Days)** 77 short straddle, 9.20 at the mid price, 11.95% as a function of strike price, 132.2% annualized.
ARKK (Innovation) (52/54): July 2nd (47 Days) 104.5 short straddle, 14.45 at the mid, 13.83% as a function of strike price, 107.4% annualized.
MJ (Cannabis) (<1/42): July 2nd (47 Days) 19.5 short straddle, 2.60 at the mid, 13.33% as a function of strike price, 103.5% annualized.
ARKQ (Robotics) (51/39): June 18th (33 Days)*** 79.34 short straddle, 6.75 at the mid, 8.51% as a function of strike price, 94.1% annualized.
GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners) (7/37): July 2nd (47 Days) 51 short straddle, 5.58 at the mid, 10.94% as a function of strike price, 85.0% annualized.
XME (Metals and Mining) (34/37): July 2nd (47 Days) 45 short straddle, 5.95 at the mid, 13.22% as a function of strike price, 102.7% annualized.
EWZ (Brazil) (14/37): July 2nd (47 Days) 37 short straddle, 3.50 at the mid, 9.56% as a function of strike price, 74.2% annualized.
FXI (China) (63/36): July 2nd (47 Days) 44 short straddle, 2.72 at the mid, 6.18% as a function of strike price, 48.0% annualized.
GDX (Gold Miners) (30/35): July 2nd (47 Days) 38 short straddle, 3.53 at the mid, 9.29% as a function of strike price, 72.1% annualized.
Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds with 30-Day >20%:
IWM (Russell 2000) (16/27): July 2nd (47 Days) 221 short straddle, 15.68 at the mid, 7.10% as a function of strike price, 55.1% annualized.
QQQ (Nasdaq) (14/24): July 2nd (47 Days) 326 short straddle, 21.18 at the mid, 6.50% as a function of strike price, 50.5% annualized.
* -- For single name, the cut-off is 50% implied or greater; for broad market, 20% or greater. Broad market just tends to be less volatile than sector, which -- in turn -- tends to be less volatile than single name.
** -- There is currently no weekly contract near 45 days' duration, so using the monthly here.
*** -- As with ARKG, there is currently no weekly contract near 45 days, so using the June monthly here.
Should You Investing in Cathie's ARK Invest?I've been receiving some inquiries if now is a good time to invest in Cathie's ARK Invest with the recent drop?
Here's the technical analysis perspective. It's not suggesting any upside yet...
$ARKK Sell off ? CONTINUE? Noah's Ark? Cathy likes to hit the BUY BUY BUY button. flood money into positions.
Does she like to hit the SELL SELL SELL button too?
What do floods do? They flood in AND flood out.
ARKK ETF Big gains in coming monthsARKK ETF is a growth ETF created by Cathie Woods that has grown around 500% since its release in 2015. ARKK ETF stocks are a conglomerate of growth stocks that are identified by the analysts at ARK, the stocks are carefully picked out depending on their ability to produce profits. Since ARK holds a diverse portfolio in a wide range of stocks, it usually follows in the market in terms of price action, if the market is bullish, ARK will most likely be bullish, and vice versa.
I have put together a range of indicators and drawing tools that could help us analyse and even predict the future price movement of the ETF. Using the weekly chart, it is shown that the most recent candlestick has slightly bounced off the 50 MA, which gives us a bullish sentiment on the future price of this asset. P.S note that the most recent candlestick still has 3 days of price action as of the 11th of May, 2021. This means that a lot could change in the candlestick before it is completed.
The next indicator is the Relative Strength Index or the RSI, it is an indicator that helps identify whether the stock is overbought or oversold, this can help determine if a stock is bound to fall or rise in price in the future. We can spot that the RSI indicator is nearing the oversold point meaning that the price could soon start to increase.
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator is still showing a bullish trend and has slightly slowed ever since the price of the ETF dropped remarkably by about half its value at peak.
The asset as of May 11th 2021 is trading at $106.09 per share, the intrinsic value of this asset is said to be $97.6, this means that it is still overpriced and we could see a slight decrease under the line of intrinsic value, which could be a strategic and smart buy point.
There are many more indicators that I have not discussed, but the range of Indicators that I picked from are wide enough to give the reader a good insight of how this asset will trade in the future. Like the post and follow me if you have enjoyed this analysis, much more coming soon.
TraderTH
There is still hope for ARKK and CathieThis is an important week for ARKK and Cathie Wood. Following pre-market doom and capitulation we are seeing a bounce to the long-term support level. Hoping this can resume and break above 111 and maintain support above the 200 EMA. A close below 96 would indicate a further drop.
