Exploding 0DTE trading may be distorting the VIX to artificially low levels, forcing a breakdown in the 5-year trendline. Yet, with the steepest 10y/3m yield curve inversion since 1981 becoming even steeper, we can be reasonably certain that higher volatility is in store for the quarters and years ahead.
No weekly VIX candle has ever closed outside of this (log-scale) triangle structure. By March 2024, that must change as the structure ends then. Since the yield curve is inverted, it's likely that the VIX will break out to the upside.