CPER trade ideas
Big divergence between $SPX & $CPERThis probably is not a good sign for the SP:SPX , as these assets are highly correlated (0.88) and normally AMEX:CPER leads the business cycle.
Also, the TVC:VIX is back above 20 and NASDAQ:TLT hasn't resume its downtrend.
Even the dollar AMEX:UUP is showing strength again.
I'm 87% in cash and also have tighten all my stops.
Let's wait and see if the SP:SPX holds or breaks down.
CPER see brrrrLooking at the weekly chart with 200MA for CPER. I'm a fan of owning physical metals but CPER is a nice way for people to dabble in copper without actually getting bullion.
The 200MA is now coinciding with the lower boll band. On a weekly chart I'd expect this to serve as rock solid support. I've mapped out the trajectory of the 200MA if it continues to uptrend like it has, and its represented as the bottom line of the white parallel channel. Price action around the green rectangle should present a great entrance opportunity, with a target to exit at the top of the parallel channel.
Fundamentally I'm quite bullish on copper. It drives the green energy revolution and inventories are tapped out worldwide. Disputes between miners and governments are taking place and those never end quickly. Good luck out there, NFA.
Economic Game Mechanics: Part 3DISCLAIMER
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. The function of this essay is the maddening diatribe of a curious author, and how this one manages micro- and macro-economic data for a critical investigation into the micro- and macro-economic world. This text is not suitable for direct consumption, and should never be used as a primary or secondary source. The contents of this text are often illogical and offensive, and great care should be given to the reader's personal qualifications and senses. This text is delivered on TradingView, where the userbase is expected to have a level of financial and investigative understanding that would enable them to query appropriate thoughts and abdicate nonsense to the void. May whatever sovereign and omnipotent being you believe in, guide you through this.
Important note: There are many, many figures here. Please pay attention very carefully to the axes and trends, not specifics. Real data is only as real as the reader allows.
Thesis
There are endless possibilities, and many paths that can lead to a favourable outcome. The present is like a slime mold, spreading it's way across each of these possibilities, searching for the path of least resistance to propagation. Working it's way through the future in all favourable directions. Commodities alone will not secure a nation it's future, nor are there enough of any single commodity to provide for humanity in perpetuity. A combination of strategic investments in key scientific fields will be required for a true rotation into localizing and securing supply chains. Synthetic biology offers rare resources never thought farmable; what is the value of cotton when spider-silk can be brewed like beer? Companies like Gevo, Ginkgo Bioworks, and through Ginkgo, Chronos Group, are already positioned to create endless supply from human-made microbes. Nuclear fusion is approaching critical developmental milestones. Material Sciences and technological developments in ceramics have enabled the lithium battery, and will one day enable the lithium-less battery. What was once thought impossible on Earth, is quickly becoming the inevitable. Rapid globalization introduced a world of possibilities to nearly every corner of the atlas, and in turn nearly brought the end of it. Just as the mold spreads, so do it's peers. If the mold could be completely sustainable and contained within it's own space, the mold might never need to compete with those peers. While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought NATO members closer, it has created visible stresses. Germany is a failed-state without Russian gas; their manufacturing industries will halt as they go without Russian energy, and the cost of the dwindling energy supply forces destructive, competitive, hyperinflationary impulses on Germany and it's reliant-trade partners. Of course, companies with manufacturing centers in China, Russia, and others unlikely to be hit with energy shortages have their own hyperinflationary issues developing. The slime mold of humanity, and all competitive striations within, are just one flavour of Mother Earth's creations. It is apparent that global cooperation through critical natural selective events would lead to the best outcomes, the willingness of cooperants to coalesce seems nil. As Justitia balances volatile weights on her scale, sovereign state's will become more selfish as their own struggles outweigh the willingness to work together.
Humanity will never go extinct, as try as they may. America may never be the unipolar superpower it once was, but that doesn't mean America will ever join the ranks of Atlantis. The destruction, doom and despair ahead will test resolve. There will be harder days ahead, but there will always be days ahead. Perseverating on the inability to prevent the pain squanders the chance to be prepared for all possibilities and probabilities. It was with science, medicine, reason, and pure hard work that guided humanity from the caves gifted by nature to the marvels that gift nature. While innovative technological systems enabled, and continue to enable, rapid advances in all four of these paradigms, it will now be in the translational companies that drive the market, as the market becomes founded once more on fundamentals in economics, and reality. The industries that drive humanity, the continued improvement in survival of humanity, and the pleasures that it can continue to lust after, will see an increasing share of uncompromising capital. As the mixture between politics and mathematics progresses, Central Banks will look to previous rounds of the game for their strategy on the next, whichever title it takes. Still, making a mistake does not preclude it from the list of actions Central Bank's will take. The idea of austerity versus lending is a stitch inhibiting forward progress, and nation's struggle with a concept of paying for the past and future. A specific stimuli results in a Markov Chain of possibilities, and probabilities are only ever probable. The future should be driven by the exploration and progression towards every possible beneficial direction, but the distance between should and did can be the difference between victory and defeat.
Selected References
These articles summarize some of the select events that have just happened and might not be common knowledge to the reader.
www.reuters.com
www.chinadaily.com.cn
www.shadowstats.com
www.npr.org
theconversation.com
Financial Disclaimer
I am personally long on all 3 of these ETFs published under Economic Game Mechanics, with much more diversity and weighting depending on risk-reward ratios based on past performance, ETF makeups, active vs passive strategy, specific commodity pockets, etc. Do not make any financial decisions based off this text or any charts because that would be pretty stupid, lol.
Weekly Bullish Harami with Hidden Bullish DivergenceThe 2022 call options for this one seems like a good play. Or you could buy some shares but im going the route of options.
Copper in line with Mkt breath weakness. Potential correctionCopper in line with Mkt breath weakness. Potential correction
Copper Trend intactCopper has a strong uptrend with a stair-step behavior.
With pent-up demand for semi-conductors, copper mining has been increasing to help suppliers.
For in depth analysis, please check my last charts on CPER.
Copper Price should move on!Even the news shows different?
Who trust China claiming it will prevent raising prices? Really?
They only interested to put the price down to buy more copper! Think about it? Why should china help us?
See also money flow in this ETF: etfdb.com
So large volume still goes in this ETF and this for no other reason, that it will remain a uptrend for some while.
Copper close to complete the measured move!Copper has a healthy stair-step trend, with mid-term consolidations after big rally's, as drawn in chart.
We are about to make the measured move which I projected in my last chart on this ETF, at this point I expect we could enter a period of consolidation.
Risk Management
I will tight my exits to the 5-day moving average once we complete the measured move. That way I can still be in it if it continues to rally, but will secure my gains which I set in my initial plan.
To see the initial plan and breakout setup, click on related ideas "Copper breaking out"
Copper breaking outTechnical Analysis
As you can see in the chart, every red square is showing a consolidation period, followed by a strong rally.
Today's action is showing strength as we are seeing a potential breakout, outside the 1-month consolidation period.
Trade setup
The light-blue arrows are potential measured moves. However, I would follow the 5sma or 10sma, as a stop-exit for 50% of your position.
Fundamental Analysis
There is some concern around inflation, all though the Fed maintains he believes it will be transitory.
Here is the way I follow inflation, which is a free chart by the Federal Reserve Economic Data :
fred.stlouisfed.org
Another way is with the TIP etf.
029. Metallic Mean Reversion: Long Gold/Short CopperWell, well, well.. what an interesting setup we have here in the realm of the metals. It seems that confusion regarding inflation may have caused price overshoots in different directions for different metals. Two of such that glare out to me are Gold and Copper.
I will structure the write-up of this Pig-Play a bit differently this time due to the inherent complexity of this trade, and more importantly because either half of this strangle can be taken successfully, in and of itself. While I find this particular situation to be blatantly weird (and thus near-technical arbitrage), either commodity is trading so far away from its respective mean that both plays should work wonders individually.
Henceforth, while I recommend taking both plays simultaneously, I will outline each in different sections - in case one mean reversion is enough for you.
LONG GOLD (GLD):
As the chart suggests, Gold and its major ETF, GLD, have been consolidating in a comical fashion for too many months. In fact, I decided to perform a little accounting to determine what the fair price of Gold is after the most recent trillion-dollar stimulus print. The calculation and subsequent "should be" price are as follows:
_______________________________________________________________________________
Data as of February 2021:
USD in Circulation: 21.0006 Trillion United States (Monopoly) Dollars
(www.quandl.com)
Troy Ounces of Gold Mined: ~147.30 Million Troy Ounces
(www.gold.org)
_______________________________________________________________________________
Data as of March 2021:
USD in Circulation: 21.0006 T + 1.9 T = 22.9006 Trillion USD; Post-Biden Print
Troy Ounces of Gold Mined: ~147.30 M + ~0 = 147.30 Million Troy Ounces; Essentially Unchanged
(www.commonsensemath.com)
_______________________________________________________________________________
Gold USD/OZ Today: 1736 $/oz
"Should Be" Price of Gold Post-Print: 22.9006 Trillion USD/147.30 Million Ounces = 3285.93 $/oz
_______________________________________________________________________________
In conclusion, based on hard data, simple math, and basic accounting principles, Gold should be recognized at 3285.93 USD per troy ounce by the market and all of its participants.
Yet, after the stimulus announcement, the price of Gold did not, in fact, immediately jump to over 3k/oz. No, instead it decreased and (hopefully) bottomed below 1700.oz. That, my piggish friends, is called fucking stupidity.
In final conclusion, Gold is due for a mean reversion to around 1850ish in the near term, so its ETF, GLD, should get to around 175.00 in no time. See the chart for entry and two profit taking points.
GLD PIG SPECS:
Buy Long Calls: 164 Strike, 4/16/2021 Expiration
Reasoning: Extreme likelihood of mean reversion back to 175 that has not been recognized by the options market yet. The proof is in the pricing: 164 Strike is relatively the same price as 167-169, so its 3 extra dollars of free delta in your pocket.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
SHORT COPPER (CPER):
I will not be performing any basic calculations for this one. In opposition to Gold, and mostly for extreme oversold conditions, Copper has ripped higher in a straight line for many weeks now (this market is so fucked up these days). The degree to which Copper, and other such earth metals, have had deeply depressed prices for several years is something akin to statistical impossibility. Frankly, they have been quite manipulated downward a la futures short selling, but I will not lecture about this today. Bottom line is that Copper's run upward is, in my opinion, purely technical rebalancing.
As with all things market-related these days, it overshot the mean by a country mile. Thus, the chart suggests that a very simple and predictable C-Wave down should be expected to begin in the next session or two. Since the dollars/share to the downside is pretty limited for this trade, I'd stick with at the money puts for a short flip. See the chart for entry/exits and below for Pig Specs:
CPER PIG SPECS:
Buy Long Puts: 25 Strike, 04/09/2021 Expiration
OR
Short Equity Directly at 24.83/Share
Reasoning: Chart says it all, but the one factor that should illicit confidence is the purely technical, precise nature of this move down. It also provides same-week expiration opportunities such that I am actually recommending purchasing put contracts that are slightly in the money.
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The cool parts about doing both of these trades simultaneously are:
1) You get a high probability of profiting in both directions;
2) Both commodities often travel in the same direction because both are metals that negatively correlate with dollar strength, all else equal. This means that you get a natural hedge baked in;
3) Due to general, market-wide idiocy, both metals have been severely oversold (bought) to the point where each basically must mean revert to some extent during the same timeframe;
4) The precise nature of the Copper trade allows for a slight calendar strangle as a final cherry on top.
I don't know about you, but I feel even more convinced after doing so much simple math. In any case, it should be clear that the commodities market is offering up opportunities while the stock market isn't and I intend to exploit it piggishly.
-PigFourAccountant
OANDA:XAUUSD
TVC:GOLD
AMEX:GLD
MCX:GOLD1!
MCX:COPPER1!
AMEX:CPER
AMEX:GLD
CPER buy SL 12.67i use renko and fibs on daily chart and get signals ~ 10 times per year and my long term prognosis that it will go up. Use SL and trailing stop with distance to SL.
CPER: United States Copper ETFBecause of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy — from homes and factories to electronics and power generation and transmission — demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health.
CPER ETF seeks the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares’ per share net asset value (“NAV”) to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total ReturnSM (the “SCI”), less CPER’s expenses.
M timeframe BEAR
W timeframe BULL
FIB retracement 61.8 acts as support BULL
INVESTORS too negative about global growth BEAR
GROWTH continues with but with slower rate BULL
RSI W oversold with divergence BULL
MACD divergence with bears loosing momentum BULL
DXY index too appreciated expecting dollar weakness which would be good for commodities BULL
RRR favorable BULL
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CPER Long: Completion of FlatI was looking at HG1! (Copper Futures) and that since I called the high of Copper, it has moved sideways into a clear 3-3 correction wave. The current move down could then be taken as a clear impulse which I will term the "5" in a Flat formation.
I did not expect that price will move below the support but I do expect that price will move up from here. Take it this way, it is now a better long.
Park your Money Here for at least 12 months.Long Term Parking ONLY. 10-pip traders and Day Traders stay away as zigzags will clear you.
