Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 2Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 2
DBA trade ideas
The DBA Has Surged. It was a great Tell The CPI WOuld Run HotThe agriculture ETF, the DBA, has surged this year. It was a GREAT tell that the CPI report would run hot.
DBA: Bullish Abandoned Baby on Agriculture Futures ETFThe DBA Agriculture Fund is an ETF that has futures exposure to various different commodities including: Wheat, Corn, Sugar, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Cotton, Soybeans, Coffee, and others. As of right now the fund has recently pulled back due to a Bearish Test of the Bearish Bat PCZ but during this time it has formed what looks to be a Cup with Handle and has confirmed a Bullish Abandoned Baby off the 200-Day SMA with Bullish Divergence on both the MACD and RSI. With all these factors being considered along with the recent dramatic increase in charter rates across the containership and dry bulk segments, I think it is very likely that we will see the pricing of these commodities rise once more and likely break significantly above any of the bearish zones.
DBA Coiling to Break Out ?DBA noted to be on the verge of a break out.
Very quickly, here is why:
1. Weekly Candlestick pattern appears more bullish . Subtle buy signal there.
2. MACD rising and just about crossing up and the VolDiv already crossed over.
3. TD Seq is actually still in Bullish trend
4. Daily Candlesticks show a potential rebound, but it needs to break above the TDST (green line)
5. The Daily background MACD histogram is actually bullish and rising
Still early IMHO
Looking for a pop above the line...
Watch Agriculture... DBANoted in my screener that the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund DBA was outstanding for the week.
A 2.3% climb for the week came after a quick 15% decline early in the year, and entrapment in a consolidation range (yellow box) between 19.50 and 20.80. The lower end of the range represents a strong support having been tested thrice this year. Meanwhile, the weekly MACD was frustratingly flatlining as the VolDiv dropped.
Conditions appear to preliminarily change as this solid marubozu bounce from the support came with a more significant MACD breakout and closed the week at the 23W EMA. There also appears to be an early alignment with the VolDiv uptick in recent weeks.
A shorter term trend line appears to have been broken out as well (green trend line).
An early potential where a follow through rally on the DBA should bring price to about 21, and another imminent breakout of the consolidation zone.
Merry Christmas!!!
DBA - Invesco Agriculture Fund Commodities are currently repricing lower due to the looming global slowdown. Meaning, there is more potential downside for commodities
However,
There are more significant tailwinds that will push commodity prices higher in the longer term.
DBA ETF broke out of yearly downtrend in 2020 indicating that higher food prices are in the global outlook for the upcoming years.
A pullback is probably overdue but after prices stabilize, we can see the DBA ETF push significantly higher. The first stop is fair value (red line).
#DBA Agriculture ETF breaking below rising wedgeDeutsche Bank Agri ETF has broken down from this rising wedge and now firmly stuck between the anchored vwaps from the recent swing highs and lows which are acting as both resistance and support. This wedge pattern is generally a continuation pattern in the direction of the preceding trend so i would expect this to work its way down to the anchored vwap support and recent lows at +- 19.50
$DBA - We are at key area (PAY ATTENTION) $DBA - We are at key area (PAY ATTENTION)
What is this index?
Agricultural commodities ETF - Includes: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Coffee and much more.
Is food inflation over or this a minor dip?
Keep an eye!
Agriculture ETF DBA long term perspective... Decided to start looking at the Agriculture ETF, DBA.
Had been viewing it for years now since 2009, but it was in a long downtrend that never seemed to end, until it did in mid 2020.
With a fierce initial upside, and a stall in the previous months, it appears that there might be some retracement to about 18-20 levels, before a real launch.
Much is said about imminent food shortages, etc. over the past months, but the charts are not showing it... IF the chatter is before its time, and the reality comes much later, then the chart is showing that 2023 will hold the next leg up, and expected to be larger; which also means the problem is not going away, and efforts now to alleviate would only be temporal.
Long DBA $DBA Based on the current situation in the Agricultural sector we want to take advantage of this opportunity.
DBA gives us diversified exposure to Corn, Kc Wheat, Sugar, Soybeans, Cocoa and more
It recently filled a gap at 22.04. We see consolidation, then a breakout of it' s 2016 high at 23.01. From there we expect a move to the 25.69 the 1.272% Fib, Followed by our target of 29.10 the 1.618% FIB
Time frame 6-9 months
BULLISH AF ON AGRICULTURE ETF $DBAAs inflation is being uncontrollable, we know that inflation is a big concern at moment, The fed on his statement looks more hawkish than ever. because they know inflation can't be solved in the near term. The incoming of food shortages due to Russian sanctions and most assets are highly overvalued like stock, housing, crypto, and commodities. It seems the stock market looks like a regulated casino, including me as mostly I gamble on the stock market buying penny and short squeeze stock where the fundamental doesn't exist anymore but I still can gain profit.
but I believe, it has to end somewhere in the future, better we need to prepare ourselves for the recession and save our assets. Take our profit then put it on the asset that protects us from the recession.
from a technical analysis perspective this ETF, look so bullish than ever
Ema crossover 20,50,100, 200
Strong UPTREND and trend is your friend
volume spike
and
During recession people still have to eat, right??
**Not financial advice**
$DBA breakout, potential near term reversalLT Conviction: 5/5
ST Conviction: 2/5
Breakout confirmed for long-term upward movement. Risky short-term.
Explain:
Lots of agriculture requires fossil fuel as inputs (fertilizer), and with structural underinvestment in fossil fuel extraction, prices should remain elevated for the next few years.
This higher prices should trickle down into agriculture production costs.
Rising inflation should also increase (price) demand for agricultures.
However, short term looks overbought, and could drop in the next 1-3 months, following energy prices.
$DBA Textbook BRB so farDBA Agriculture fund weekly chart possible bullish textbook BRB - Breakout Retest Bounce - implying a move higher in the next few weeks.
Large open interest in JAN calls, I added to my 19c position today after seeing buyers present Monday and also a nice wick last week despite a lot of equities down big.
JAN19c - 17K OI
JAN20c - 12K OI
$DBA Long Swing Trade Idea $DBA Agriculture fund looks bullish on weekly (macd cross) and monthly time frame.
Looking at the monthly chart we can see a break above $20.75 zone implies a move through the VP gap to $23.8 zone resistance.
MACD showing good momo and EMA's bullish cross implies continuation to the upside.
Open Interest is very heavy on the call side, and on 11/17 a whale bought 10,300 contacts of the 1/21 19c ... Given the technicals and chart I followed this trade idea.
Trade is working +14% so far and I think there's more room . Whale is still in the trade as well.
Plan to spend more on your next date...This is an incredibly clean breakout.
Nice longish term buy and hold betting on food costs increasing.
Inflation wasn't fooling around and this chart is proving it.
Keep your eyes on it.
Agriculture - SeasonalityBrief for Agriculture:
- Price inflation of commodities and tailwinds of seasonality will provide a bountiful harvest this year's end for agricultural commodities.
Focus points:
Coffee:
Oats:
Soybean:
Soymeal:
Cotton:
Most interested in Coffee and Oats, as they are showing strong trends entering into the bullish season, but eagerly awaiting Soybean and Soymeal reversals for a most opportune entry.
GLHF
- DPT
$DBA SHH11111TT333!! Here come food prices! WW3Ruh ruh! VCP broken up. nooooooot goo for the globe. Wait until they hit China.
DBA | Expect to pay more Fuel costs cannot be blamed as the sole catalyst in rising food prices, as harvests hit by hot weather and Covid restrictions, an increase in global demand – with a dramatically cold 2020 winter and hot 2021 summer, and disruptions in the supply chain, are also to blame. But if transport and farming costs continue to rise, our food bill is likely to keep climbing.
Pressuring prices higher are farmers faced with a whole host of inflationary woes, from soaring fuel, fertilizer, labor, and machinery costs to adverse weather conditions that may result in fewer plantings in 2022.
DBA Holdings
- Corn 13.02%
- Soybeans 12.81%
- Sugar 12.27%
- Coffee 12.08%
- Live Cattle 11.61%
- Cocoa 11.23%
- Lean Hogs 8.07%
- Kansas Wheat 6.19%
- Wheat 6.05%
- Feeder Cattle 3.86%
- Cotton 2.81%
Ascending triangle formation is pointing to a potential breakout in the near future with price converging near the apex on declining volume and volatility. DBA is holding above all key moving averages, a breakout over $19.50 on strong volume will provide confirmation for a continued upside move.
In addition, spec positioning have declined significantly from the highs in May 2020 and open interest appears to be increasing once again on many agricultural commodities.
___________________________
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, follow & share.
✅ Follow for swing ideas, trade setups and weekly 0DTE income trades.
✅ Don't hesitate to post comments, opinions and questions.
💸 WHAT IS 0DTE TRADING?
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) lists weekly options on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) with expirations every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Most options expire worthless and we take advantage of this by selling credit spreads to collect premium. This strategy allows us to profit if the market moves up, down or doesn't move at all. See profile to learn more!
2021-10-19 DBA - longPrice is consolidating at recent resistance with higher lows. Looking for a break higher.
Going Higher - Ascending TriangleDBA is clearly forming an ascending triangle pattern. With global supply chains showing no sign of improvement, fundamentally agriculture is set to benefit massively from rising prices. This is an obivous long if we manage to break above 19.50 on decent volume.
Agriculture - DBAIdea for DBA:
- Agriculture on an uptrend but testing a down TAIL resistance.
- Rejected at resistance, re-testing.
- Watching for the short if rejected again, or fakes breakout to the sliding parallel and fails to breakout.
GLHF
- DPT
Invesco DB Agriculture fund - Breaking out of Descending channelThis break out of the descending channel looks legit and probably see's higher prices. Looks like a basic basket of agricultural goods is going to become even more expensive. Pattern target -> $20.50
Fund Holdings subject to change
FUTURES % OF NET ASSETS
Corn 14.29
Soybeans 13.73
Coffee 13.60
Sugar 13.25
Wheat 11.31
Live Cattle 9.78
Lean Hogs 9.64
Cocoa 8.48
Feeder Cattle 3.30
Cotton 2.63
COLLATERAL % OF NET ASSETS
Invesco Government & Agency Portfolio 45.95
United States Treasury Bill 42.57
Invesco Treasury Collateral ETF 10.19
Cash/Receivables/Payables 0.01
