What the Federal Reserve Fears Most - higher Food PricesA inverted Head and Shoulder is painting out right now. 18.50 once 17 is breached. The Fed's cant print food. Remember the Arab Spring?
DBA trade ideas
DBA looking bullishWe like the agriculture sector here with the one of the if not the largest flooding in history for the Midwest. The chart is extremely oversold on weekly and monthly time frame, the daily pattern has a lot of potential and the fundamental could be changing quickly with this flooding (more rain coming and melted snow from up north not arrived yet).
DBA small rallyLittle bit late so I'll just monitor this trade, winrate is quite awesome.
total Ag hedgers positions are net long at historical levels - that caused 1-2month rally. I'll target for time/or % profit for the next 1-2months
DBA is a swing longSeems a serious run is unfolding. I don't know what is the best stop but will gradually load.
DBA agricultural commodities.....can they get much cheaper?I bought a call vertical today in an agricultural E.T.F. as a way to get a cheap hedge. Assuming if inflation rises or supply gets disrupted for some unknown reason. I am a little unclear of the cost to carry of the futures that it holds and was unable to write cash secured puts in my Fidelity SDA as I was told it was structured as an M.L.P. (master limited partnership) So I paid 1.32 for the 17/20 call vertical out to January 2020, as there was no other way to get long this name without tying up too much money and I.V.R. was low (24ish %) Not sure I needed to go out that far but moves really slow and is not a product I am very familiar with so staying small. SosGrande did trade some through the Bob the Trader app so I am hoping this would be a good entry and I have plenty of time. Dollar strength seems to be weighing heavily on this as well......but I will now be more interested in watching what tends to move these products as I have money on the table. Wish me luck.
The folks who tried to long DBA .So,many people were buying DBA couple of months ago lol. Here you go . Nice , clean bearish trend lol. Stops runned and gunned nicely.
UPDATE: Soft commodities have the answers for all assets s/t DBAHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
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DBA lol!!This is awesome. I know of so many people who were buying this and coming out with price targets. My system saved me from pain. Short is doing good. At some point , it will rally but wait for proper signals fellas.
DBA LongA long-term bet on agricultural prices will soar with a short term technical upside. AMEX:DBA
Expecting a bottom in Agris!!!Hello traders
Take a look at monthly chart of DBA. Downside momentum is exhausted and I expect some moves to upside now. Still a bearish chart. But no momentum in macd now. Weekly chart is constructive and getting better. I am looking for plays in grains such as corn and wheat to the upside. Will see how it plays out. Stocks and commodities ratio is interesting as well. Change in trend???
Just wanted to share some thoughts in case some of you want to play it.
DBA: a small breakoutA breakout in DBA. Right now the price is testing the support. Perhaps we can expect a move upwards once again.
Bullish breakout It looks like Bulls finally gain power.
- Initial bullish Kumo breakout. (To confirm it has to make a higher high and Chikou cross above past Kumo)
- Breakout from major bullish wedge
- Hekin-Ashi gives a buy signal
We'll wait for today close and if momentum holds, we start to leverage our long position.
ADB longWhen something is hated and oversold, it is time to buy it. There is not yet clear conformation for bullish trend, but it will be very interesting when two trendlines meet on weekly chart. Risk reward is on bulls side. And with ever increasing prices, it is only matter of time before actual food become more expensive.
TRADE IDEA: DBA APRIL 20TH 18/20 LONG CALL VERTICALMetrics:
Probability of Profit: 38%
Max Profit: $140/contract
Max Loss: $60 contract
Break Even: 18.60
Notes: With the underlying at all-time lows, going for a small directional shot. Going out to April to attempt to take advantage of potential seasonality. Fills look to be pesky, with the bid/ask on this setup at .55/.65 (mid .60) ... . I would also note that the short call isn't taking much off the top in terms of debit paid (bid .10/ask .15), so this may be one of those cases where you might just want to go Plain Jane long call (bid .70/ask .75) and not cap out max profit with the shortie ... .
DBA Agriculture etf - a good rally due?Not much to look at here but this ETF has bounced against it's 78.6 extension of my wave A and a median line on a Schiff pitchfork. Good place for a decent rally perhaps?
I still believe in 19+I am also long some DBA. Looking at haDelta+ and haOscillator, I still believe 19+ zone retracement is achievable. There we'll see, but probably I'll get out. We also use a tighter than usual trailing stop on this trade, since it is counter trend.
Agriculture at the resistance. Consider going short.DBA (Agriculture ETF) is touching two resistances now so there is a possibility that it will fall down again. But wait until it bounces off and starts dipping.
DBA weekly : have some patience...DBA had a retrace after breaking out of this declining wedge. I am now watching price behaviour around this base area and setting some alerts ( 21.00USD ). If the macro assessment is correct we should see Agrobusiness follow the pro-inflation-fear environment, which means that precious metals, commodities and Agrobusiness should provide considerabel gains in to 2017 and 2018. Long-term appreciation expected. However one has to have enormous patience. Once the big players catch up on this ( they did already in Gold and Silver ) we should be well positioned.
Monthly Agriculture Fund poor Jimmy Rogers...Monthly Agriculture Fund poor Jimmy Rogers sitting through all this pain... maybe he will be proven right soon though
DBA and the DollarRecent declines in the dollar have previously lead to large rallies in DBA. As of yet the current decline in the dollar has not done much for DBA, however I anticipate this to change soon if the dollar continues the current pull back through the summer. A retest of the ~88-89 level on DXY may be coming and if so, DBA may break out of the current down trend which started with the dollar rally.
The declining trend line noted on the chart represents about ~17% gain and would be a reasonable target.
