Commodities - Bullish WedgeOverall, commodities looking like they going to do well the next few quarters.
DBC trade ideas
Inflation Forgotten & Reloading?In the midst of rate cuts, commodities are bouncing off the 200 month moving average. If this wedge resolves to the upside then the cheers of cuts might be short lived. High commodity prices and weak economy would present a serious challenge for the central bankers worldwide.
Invesco Commodity 41924Heavily weighted in energy. I see DBC catching a bid to test the top resistance. If that breaks through, which it will eventually. Fireworks will pop off.
30 dollars
DBC is on the verge of a breakout on the monthlyDBC is on the verge of a breakout on the monthly. First upside target 🎯 and resistance is $25.91. This price target is a confluence resistance level with upper BB. If price breaks through that resistance then next upside 🎯 is $30.
Commodities (inflation) heading higherThis has an inevitability surrounding it.
DB commodity index. Headed higher (ditto inflation and yields).
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult.
This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies.
With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent.
For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
Bear flag on DBC?We can see a potentially bearish consolidation taking place after the break in the previous trend.
If confirmed, the closest target will be 21.
Commodities Forecast To Crush StocksThe analysis clearly shows commodities have broken out versus the stock market and a new trend has begun.
#DBC Deutsche Bank Commodity index looking bullish Price action here looking quite constructive. After breaking out the wedge formation and back above the 200dma, price has consolidated in a box after retesting and holding the 200dma. I think we see a move back to at least $26.30 on this
Sensing Blood In CommoditiesSensing blood in commodities.
Nat gas, wheat, copper, $DBC breaking down.
Ferts weak $MOS despite geopolitical tensions
DBC looks on course to sprint towards neckline of big, bear pattern.
Surely inflation expectations must recede?
DB. commodity index idea (27/09/2022)DB. commodity index
We expect the index to continue declining because prices are below the 27.05 resistance point, and wave (2) has already ended and started falling in waves (3). We expect prices to drop to 1.618% at 22.18, but currently, we expect the correction to continue to 61% at 26.06 to end wave 2 before descending again.
Commodity DBC idea (22/09/2022)DB. commodity index
We expect the index to continue declining because prices are below the 27.05 resistance point, and wave (2) has already ended and started declining in waves (3). We expect prices to drop to 2.618% at 20.02, but for now,
DB. commodity index idea (13/09/2022)DB. commodity index
We expect the index to continue declining because prices are below the 27.05 resistance point, and wave (2) has already ended and started falling in waves (3). We expect prices to drop to 1.618% at 22.18, but currently, we expect the correction to continue to 61% at 26.06 to end wave 2 before descending again.
#DBC closed under 200dma and rising channelDBC - Invesco Deutsche Bank Commodity Index has closed and broken below both the rising channel and the 200 day moving average. Technically this is quite damaging and it will be interesting to see if we get follow through to the downside.
Crude oil and gasoline are major weights in this basket accounting for half of the weighting followed by gold at just over 6% and agriculture also having a decent weighting.
www.invesco.com
Should the technical targets play out we could see approx $22.50 and $19.30. Two daily closes back above the 200dma and i'll most likely concede that this view is incorrect.
Gasoline and commoditiesHello friends.
Gasoline has come crashing down, and commodities have only fallen about half as much. Because the major price in producing most commodities aside from labor is gasoline, it makes sense that the price of commodities will follow the price of gasoline quite well. However, there is a lag effect. It seems to take quite a few months from the point when gasoline falls down to the point where commodities follow its lead and also fall down. This makes sense because commodity producers are not eager to lower their prices and will only do so if they are forced to by other commodity producers lowering prices. On top of this, commodity producers will have some set reserve of gasoline that may have been purchased at a higher price. They will need to exhaust their current supply of gasoline before they buy more of it at the new market price which is lower. If you look at history, this sort of pattern has played out many many times before. Over time, this ticker of commodities over gasoline is slowly trending down. The reason why should be obvious: Innovation dictates that we use less gasoline per commodity produced. To put it another way, our commodity production is becoming ever more efficient as time goes on. This downtrend is very likely to continue for the next 100 years and beyond, assming you beleive as we do that we are nowhere near "perfect innovation" and that there are many substantially important things that we are yet to discover with regards to producing commodities.
Our prediction through the end of this year is that gasoline will slow or even temporarily reverse its collapse, and commodities will start to speed up and collapse much more rapidly.
The significance of this effect for the broader market would be hard to overstate. Cheaper gasoline is great, but that's only one commodity that consumers regularly use. They are still paying a lot for all the other commodities. Easing prices in commodities following the collapse of gasoline prices would be the point where consumers finally start to feel relief from this inflation and consequently start spending more money on consumption since they are no longer as broke as before. This increased spending on consumption as a result of lower commodity prices will be good for the global risk market since it will bring better earnings for most stocks (aside from most notably commodity production stocks, which may have some more suffering in their near future).
We aren't planning to trade this exact ticker, but we are using this as a guiding idea for our view on commodity and risk markets going forwards.
Thanks for playing.
DB. commodity index idea (07/09/2022)DB. commodity index
We expect the index to continue to decline since prices are below the 27.05 resistance point, and wave (2) has already ended and started descending in waves (3). We expect prices to drop to 1.618% levels at 22.18 prices
FED Pivot?This chart suggest a FED pivot arriving much sooner than some may suspect. Compared to 2016 - 2019, the fast & big drop that usually follows a euphoric peak, came much quicker for this year. Given how much money printing went on during the pandemic, it's worth considering that this might be simply the first and second Elliott Waves for commodities, but there will be big corrections along the way, and since inflation is the rate of rising prices, not the price change itself, it would not be surprising for the FED to declare victory sooner than later. As for the fact that recessions often coincided with rates dropping, today is not comparable because the FED only started raising rates recently. It is arguable that the FED actually raised rates roughly around the right time, not "too late" as some would argue.
Commodity DBC idea (25/08/2022)DB. commodity index
And we expected that the correction would end in wave (2) and the price would be at 27.24, then it would start declining again to lower levels, it might reach 24.21, but this decline depends on price trading below the resistance point of 30.66
DBC commodities shortCommodities have peaked.
FED will keep on increasing rates to break the inflation.
Short - DBC
Profit target 21.88
Inflation is PeakingMarket, Fed Speakers, Bond market, all saying inflation is peaking. Opened Jan 25P
DBC LongLate cycle continue to develop. Commodity continue growing as usual in this business stage.
Placed limit order to 28.69 with emergency SL at 23.74
DBC Inflation HedgeIf you're looking for a hedge against inflation, here you go. Long term play.... or you could buy some USO (oil) to hedge against your gasoline costs.
DBC - VCP Type Action1) Commodities showing volatility contraction type movement with good volume cues (massive dry up)
2) We see price getting rejected at the $28.65 level twice - establishing a pivot entry if price breaks out on higher volume
3) Early entry is spotted at about $28.30, which I have initiated a starting position in. That said, I am mindful of the FOMC meeting today which could induce a bout of volatility. Hence, I have set a very tight stop at $27.75 to get out if necessary.
4) I am aiming for a 3R target price of $31.35 based on the $28.65 Pivot Entry. This is because if the market turns for the awaited countertrend bull rally, there isn't any significant resistance on the left side of the chart.
5) Not financial advice, happy trading!
