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DIA trade ideas

what has happened before will happen again.now that we are hitting another important 45 degree angle, it is time to pause and see how the market reacts to this level. we are at a very dangerous level in terms in valuation but insanity can go on longer than you can stay solvent..... there is no such thing as a free meal. i will be watching 7/10 - 7/12 as a possible date for a reversal. please note that i do not see this as being the big drop... that i think will happen in 4q..... Here are some things to consider from my cycle study 1) weakening dollar very similiar to what we went through in 1970s with nixon. remember, the first two years of the government printing in 1970s was creating a more robust economy.... until reality hit. there is no such thing as a free meal. standards of living dropped drastically during the 1970s. food sky rocketed by 1973 it was 300% more than 1971. food levels never went down to pre 1970s levels. transitory is a bs story the fed is pushing because they are in a corner. 2) a ban on gold or other currencies that threaten the dollar (bitcoin). 3) oil crisis 4) legalization of marijuana on a federal level 5) space dominance. .... (trains in 1820s.....planes in 1920s.... space in 2020s) "Although it is obvious that the Keynesians were all wrong and interventionism and central economic planning don’t work, whom are we listening to for advice on getting us out of this mess? Unfortunately, it’s the Keynesians, the socialists, and big-government proponents. Who’s being ignored? The Austrian free-market economists — the very ones who predicted not only the Great Depression, but the calamity we’re dealing with today. If the crisis was predictable and is explainable, why did no one listen? It’s because too many politicians believed that a free lunch was possible and a new economic paradigm had arrived. But we’ve heard that one before — like the philosopher’s stone that could turn lead into gold. Prosperity without work is a dream of the ages." The Austrians Were Right, November 20, 2008 ----- RON PAUL "The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun." Ecclesiastes 1:9
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by Oppollo
1
DOW TOP PREDICTIONThis super cycle EWT & Fibonacci analysis is showing me that we are approaching the top of the quantitative easing/money printing pump. Nearly all of the EWT theory rules apply, and the fibonacci levels are scary accurate. The top of the fibonacci retracement is a projection in this case but the accuracy of the previous trend levels with the fib retracement indicates the top in this analysis. We also have the 2.618 fib multiple within the exact same price range as the projected fib retracement top, which would make sense to be a turn around level on this macro trend. The top is projected at 36,500-37,500 which is also just before the massive psychological level of 40k, which could suck in retail participants to put the cherry on top of the crash sunday. Also as an additional flavor, the MACD is at record highs, and we just saw a confirmed cross this is more significant than the ones previously seen in the past 2 years. I have sold 35% of my holdings, will be selling an additional 15-20% at 36,000. Look out below...
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by craig_percoco
DIA a market melting..... up?!This is a great example of a market that is melting.... up. Every day for the past week and a half we have seen a market that opens speculatively higher and closes lower than the open. If you are looking at markets in general that are healthy you will see that most green candles support an upwards trend while most red candles support a downward trend. This is very different and cause for concern that there is a large inflationary bubble in the market right now waiting for a moment of sell off. To be completely honest we are short DIA with contracts expiring June 18th and 25th from the "Out of the Market" phrase large red candle on the chart. This open higher and close lower continually has to stop one way or another.
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by swimmax
2
030. PIGGISH PLAY - Sell The News This WeekThis seems like a pretty blanket statement, but I believe that it will succeed regardless of the type of news being reported or whether the underlying asset in question is directly the subject. What I mean is that if you were to sell all earnings reports prior to the announcement, it will be a net winning strategy. If you sell the major indices into the FOMC meeting, broadly speaking, it will be a net winning strategy. And most of all, if you sell a handful of stocks into the GDP estimate, it will be a net winning strategy. To refine the blanket down to a single thread, I would say that selling a major index ETF into GDP will offer the greatest risk/reward amongst the vast array of news that is due to report this week. The reason is simple, but not terribly obvious to the new investor: the market is damned to fall either way. Say GDP crushes estimates (cannot imagine this happening unless the numbers include the FED's asset purchases), then the first thing to react higher will be interest rates. If GDP merely beats estimates, you will see interest rates jump aggressively and immediately. Nobody is going to believe Powell's insistence on sustained easy money this time around if the growth numbers are there. Ok, but what if GDP misses to the downside? Well, I find this hard to believe because its only a rough estimate and data seems to only come in favorably these days. But under this unlikely scenario, the obvious reaction is to sell your equity because the economy is nowhere near the point of recovery. Thus, stock valuations are not aligned with "reality", and ought to price discover accordingly. Is Powell's outcry for sustained easy money more believable in this case? Yes it is, but who cares? Easy money is old news and has been essentially priced in perpetuity already. My point is that it is very likely that the broader market moves considerably lower in reaction to economic data, earnings reports, and most notably, the all-important GDP estimate. Thus, SELL the news this time around. Better yet, buy DIA PUTS as per the Pig-Specs below: Pig-Specs: Main Short: Buy (LONG) DIA (Dow ETF) PUTS - Strike 332, Expiration 05/07/2021 Offset: Buy (LONG) IWM (Small-Cap ETF) CALLS - Size - 1/3rd Size of Main Short, Strike 230, Expiration - 05/07/2021 If the market continues, I think the Small-Caps will benefit most poignantly, which is why I'm using IWM as an offset for this trade. -Gross Domesticated Pig AMEX:DIA AMEX:IWM AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ FRED:GDP
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by UnknownUnicorn5511258
6
CPI will exceed 0.3% today look for a very cautious marketThe US is forecasting a 0.3% monthly CPI today, we think it will be closer to 1% for the month, given the cost of goods has dramatically increased in the US and just now being priced into the market. Look for a return in the near term to the 50MA (332) and also the 1.27 fib at 326. A cooling the market needs to happen as companies continue to announce record profits based on a larger pool of money in the system. Note: we hold shorts from 348-9 in this asset.
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by swimmax
1