DIA trade ideas
Low Volume Push On DIA, Will We Roll Over Or Head HigherSame as I put for SPY , DIA is looking a little sketchy right now. Same trend is in play as back in February when it was approaching new record levels. Low volume push higher before rolling over. Plus this week there's a fair amount of economic catalysts to factor in, on top of the first round of Q1 earnings.
This week there are plenty of economic events to take into consideration. One of the foremost things to take into consideration will be the kick-off of Q1 earnings results. The market could gain a glimpse of any progress made as vaccine distribution continues. Companies like Pepsi (NASDAQ: PEP ), Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY ), and Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL ) could shed some light on the temperature of the economy. This week will also bring consumer price inflation figures into focus. Tuesday, the Commerce Department delivers these at 8:30 AM ET. Inflationary fears remain a hot topic of conversation right now, even as the S&P and Dow reach new highs. This will also weave in with the numerous Federal Reserve speeches this week as discussions continue about interest rates. Thursday will also bring some attention to U.S. retail figures. The consensus forecast? Retail sales are expecting a jump of 5.5%. That would represent an increase from February’s decline of 3%, the largest dip since last April. Whether or not these events spark momentum in the stalled rally for small-cap stocks is to be seen. Looking at benchmark ETFs like the Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: IWM ), it hasn’t mirrored the same trends as the broader markets. However, it has bounced back a bit from its late March lows.
Quote Source: Best Penny Stocks To Buy Right Now? 3 For This Week’s Watch List
Long | DIAAMEX:DIA
Possible Scenario: LONG
Evidence: Price Action
This is my idea and could be wrong 100%,
TP ~334
CALLS for 31 March Strike 335$
Don't Miss the DowThis is a buy high and sell higher set up. From a technical perspective, looking for RSI to get closer to 75. Looking for a stretch to 245 in the DIA etf.
DOW JONES debit spread play with good chanceI've opened a LONG CALL VERTICAL spread yesterday end of day for Dow Jones.
Correction maybe consolidated, I'm expecting some short squeeze soon.
Otherwise the probability of profit is godd, and the trade is manageable because of lower strikes.
(1) Relative Implied Volatility is low
I'm using my Relative implied volatility indicator to determine the credit/debit type of option trades.
Low relative implied volatility justifies debit option strategy (longing options) instead of creadit strategy (shorting options)
(2) Neutral RSI - no oversold or overbought
Uptrend still holding after a quick correction.
My Smooth RSI indicator is in no one's land.
There is plenty of room up and down.
(3) Observing other Down Jones instrument
Every Down Jones instrument pretty same indicator values for RSI and RIV too: DJI, YM, DJIA, DIA
CONCLUSION:
I'm using LONG CALL VERTICAL -
Buy 1 DIA April16' 305 Call Sell 1 DIA April16' 310 Call
Debit call spread for 3.92 debit
Probability of Profit: 67% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 26% Max profit: 105$ Max loss at expiry: 395$ (Buy Power) Max loss with my risk management: ~120$ Tasty IVR: 3.1 Expiry: 38days
Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $309
Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 4.55 debit)
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326 is the 1.27 Extension for DIAWe are in a middle ground right now for DIA. Given the stimulus plan in place (very sure that is passes as of 3/10) expect an extension to 326 for the short term.
We don't see the 1.618 extension hitting anytime soon so 326 is the extension we look for a conclusion in the current market cycle.
Anything over this is a very overbought market and needs to be corrected. We will wait for confirmation of anything else until this point.
Bull-Bear Transition Year 2000Nasdaq (Nasdaq-100 ETF: QQQ) was a strong leader prior to topping out on March 9, 2000. This is very similar to today’s market with about 100% gains from February 2020 to February 2021
Dow (ETF: DIA) and S&P (ETF: SPY) lagged behind Nasdaq during the Nasdaq rally
When Nasdaq reversed from the top to its first stage, Dow and S&P were still near the record-high area.
Three-day rebound (04/05/2000-04/07/2000), which mapped to today’s condition, was to prepare the next sell-off wave
Then, it was another 5-day strong selling (04/10/2000-04/14/2000). Notice Dow and S&P performed well during that time. It made sense to see money rotation from red-hot technology or bubble to safer stocks like financial, industrial, energy, material. Does it sound similar when you compare Tesla (TSLA) with JP-Morgan (JPM) today?
The rest story is straightforward to see bull gave its position to bears in the next 12-15 months that Nasdaq lost -80% and Dow was down -40%.
DIA short into strengthWhile the tech sector is getting crushed right now, most financials, industrials, cyclicals, and value stocks which comprise over half of the Dow Jones Index are doing well. However, if you are looking to add some negative delta to your portfolio, you could short into strength. DJI/DIA could still rally up, but the downwards market pressure is getting stronger, so selling into strength might be ideal as the concentration of buyers towards the ATH will trigger stop losses at a high velocity. The probability of a rapid rally on DJI should be slim, but a rapid pulldown is feasible at the current levels.
DIA swing PUTs - insane bounce brings price up to resistance Look at the 60m chart and see the straight up price move in DIA. This kind of price action on an index ETF ???
The white line connects closing prices. I am buying swing puts now, with price between 321-322. My stop is over 322.10 to start. Give this time to reverse and if it does, you will have a fabulous reward to risk swing trade.
One caution I see on the RSI-14 is that we have a double touch at 50 and today's higher price signals a long trade. However the more I look at the 60m chart, combined with the stochastic bear warning (red rectangle), I like a put trade at least back to 315-314 if not lower.
I am choosing 31Mar 310 strike for this trade. I will wait 1-2 days for reversal signs. If price keeps going over 322 my risk is 30-40 cents per contract, which is about 12-15%. I am looking for at least a 50% return when I sell these puts.
DIA, SPY, QQQ Performance and Direction- Leadership rotation began on 02/16 where Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) gave up its upside leadership role
- Dow (DIA) is getting strong every day with a new high today
- S&P stays in the middle
- Market direction can be determined by looking at SPY to see if being dragged up or down
- Downside power seems to be stronger with QQQ so be prepared for full-scale downtrend or sell-off
$DIA Soars Higher as Tech Space DeleversIf you are sitting there thinking the market is in a "correction" right now, think again: the Dow is at new all-time highs today, led by financials, industrials, materials, energies, and staples.
It's only tech names that are taking a big beating. Rotation is the name of the game.
Market Crash? What I expect Monday on the Dow Jones is green!How Dow Jones Industrial Average has been responding to Full Moons. The Full Moon is Today Saturday 2/27/2021 Monday I expect a reversal.
Swing Puts Now - divergence leads to rebound into resistanceAt the end of last week there was barely a bullish divergence on the hourly chart with 7-day RSI. Price closed lower by a penny while RSI was higher. The Dow's fast selloff quickly drew in buyers this morning.
The blue line at 316.40 marks the resistance area. Last week's move down was strong enough that - combined with daily/weekly context - the index could see another wave of selling. I bought 19Mar 310 puts. My initial stop losses are >316.50 and >316.80.
Today's open was a bullish reversal, so if my trade idea is wrong then we should move higher in the next two days and my risk is low. If resistance holds, then a bigger selloff begins. The chart shows a gap from 2 Feb that may fill.
🩸 🐖 "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"Hi guys after Friday rout there are new developments in stock market indicies. Last week price action on AMEX:DIA formed bearish reversal pattern buying climax above upper megaphone pattern line at the top of rising wedge. This rising wedge is 5th Elliot wave which is signaling trend will reverse soon.
As you can notice in chart last week realized volume was relatively big and volume week ago last week was rather small. Thats the signs that bears taking control significantly in recent days.
I expecting this week breakdown bellow megaphone upper line and begin forming corrective wave (a).
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DIA - Staying in the upper channelToday the DIA opened at 314.77. Through the day it traded as high as 314.90 and as low as 311.60
Bollinger Bands
Looking at the Bollinger Bands for DIA, you can see that DIA is trading in the upper, which is considered to be a bullish sign. Not sure how much longer it can hang on. With 2 hours to go, we will see how it pans out.
MACD
Looking the MACD indicator below, you can see that the red is over the blue. This is can is indicative of an overall bearish towards DIA by the market.
MACD-EAZY PATTERN ANALYSIS. 2/26 $316c YOLO. FOLLOW MY TRADES. Pretty simple analysis, the MACD and chart pattern are following/will follow a trend similar to trend that started May 22, 2020 (the first red dashed line) and ended May 28, 2020.
