DIA trade ideas
HOPE OR FEAR? Observation of Muni Bond etf $LEO vs $DIA DJIAHere's a big point... HOPE vs FEAR as shown by Municipal Bond Prices (using the Dreyfus Muni Bond Fund ETF $LEO)
Hope is the time when people are selling their "SUPER SAFE MUNI BONDS" to invest in stocks.
Fear is when people are buying SuperSafe Muni Bonds
It's a general-view, but worth attention.
If $LEO turns down, then look for the market to turn up for another leg-higher.
How to put this chart combination to work specifically is difficult, but you can at least see the waves of HOPE and FEAR (for growth in the economy).
The talk of tax cuts got the hope UP and then the realities of how difficult it is to make a change to the tax law put a halt to that hope.
Normally, I am watching the $SKEW index and $VIX to determine the general mood and it is showing good reason to be cautious here.
However, the amount of fear as shown by the price of $LEO moving up is giving me the idea we still have more upside in equities.
Call me a nervous bull. There are major rotations going on in sectors here with highly overbought and overowned internet-tech stocks at lofty heights of valuation and lowly valued, cheap stocks to own too.
What category do you put yourself in? And if you answer, what % of your portfolio is invested in equities?
Tim
9:49AM EST July 6, 2017
Dow Catch UpI like this short term AB=CD pattern to 257.85 which also happens to be the February high mark. Small Caps broke their highs last couple of weeks, then the tech sector joined, looking for Dow to be in catch up mode.
position: short dated ITM call options in $DIA
DIA analysisWait for price to rally to 259
Confirm IV <11%
buy 257 or 256 or 255 put with a min of 6 months expiration
no stop loss, risk is the entire premium
T1 240
T2 225
Dow Jones June 2018watch down trend resistance and support at 24 k
tariffs in play, keep eye out for GDP and job news - waiting for narrative change in market
$DIA - Putting a ring on it (Long)223% essentially (my) long-term target price. I'd expect 200% upside @ or around just short of $261 before potential re-trace. Definitely my favorite type of setup.
Market Bullish (For Now) -- Converging Triangle DevelopedAs you can observe in the chart, the Dow Jones price has bounced creating a new support curve. The resistance created by the past three peaks intersects with this support curve on July 6th. Until this day, I believe we can expect bullish behavior within the ascending triangle created by these two curves.
However, there are several other factors that obviously impact the market's flow so you always have to be ready to expect the unexpected.
DJ-30 Breaking down its Triangle formationDJ-30, has gapped down below the current triangular formation and is headed towards the bottom side of the rising channel. This potential setup has a Reward-to-risk ratio of about 2.5
Market BULLISH --- Breakthrough of ResistanceSince the peak of DIA back in early 2018, a very clear resistance curve has been formed with one solid redirection, and two nearby rejections. Things are finally looking good.
With this breakthrough, a new support curve has been developed which appears to remain very strong. However, the curve is extremely aggressive, so we can expect at some point soon a more passive curve to come into play. The curve drawn is a very short term support and you should not consider any downfalls through this curve too seriously.
Due to the breakthrough, this also means that market volatility should be continuing back down to its usual lows as the market is now in a bullish mentality. Leverages such as UVXY and TVIX will most likely continue to spiral downwards bringing great money for shorts.
BEARISH WEDGEIn the chart we appreciate a bearish wedge about the Ind Avg Trust Units Series (DIA) ETF.
DIA is trying to shake off the downward trend.It is important to hold above the line in the next few days. Otherwise this is a bull trap.
Dia opening near downtrend resistanceDow Jones, has been the weakest link so far this year. This morning its morning near or slightly above daily downtrend line. It will be interesting to see how it reacts from there. Interestingly, it is also near or slightly above the 50 day mva.
What's With These Jobs Numbers? - Market Pop on Fake News?Where are these jobs numbers coming from?
On 5/4, the latest U.S. jobs report came out showing unemployment at 3.9%(?!?) with 164,000 jobs added and wage growth virtually nonexistent.
The market (DIA) couldn't decide what to do with that news early on, but Apple (plus tech overall) and energy (stocks like RIG ) were credited with lifting the indices higher, and traders ultimately deciding the jobs report shows inflation being held at bay.
Thank you for lending me your attention!
But if the market pop is on low unemployment (fake news) and staved-off inflation (short-term reprieve from the inevitable), that's not going to prop the market long.
How is that 3.9% unemployment even calculated?
Without going into details, the way unemployment is calculated has changed over the years. Many experts will tell you that if unemployment was calculated as it was back in the 90's, the number would be much, much higher. Even still, I believe unemployment has been miscalculated for a long time - presenting numbers lower than what is realistic - and a claim that unemployment is below is 4% is outrageous.
The jobs environment is desolate, especially for young people. Not only is entry-level pay below livable wages, but a massive amount of jobs are ready for replacement by automation. More and more people are dropping out of the workforce, and record debt levels are coming to pass as the U.S. population is forced to turn to credit - rather than a paycheck - to maintain an acceptable standard of living.
Peak earnings, slow global growth, fake jobs news, a destitute situation for young and old workers alike - the short term (questionable) news can't change the nature of reality, and if there is something that can legitimately send the markets higher, it's not - and won't be -jobs.
Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together.
Thanks again!
See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/
** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
DowJones in Free Fall? - Drops Through SupportAs you can see in the circled area, DIA has dropped below the support dating back to late 2016. This could mean that the price will maintain a free fall back towards the longer term support curve which was almost a full year prior to the new curve. The next few days will be be very important to watch closely as DIA decides its next movement.
The key location to watch is where the resistance curve from the all time high intersects with the older support curve. Two possibilities are prevalent as usual.
1) If the price breaks above the resistance prior to this intersection, we can expect bullish behavior.
2) If the price drops below the support curve prior to the intersection, then mayhem may pursue.
Long the DIA (SPDR DJIA ETF)Reasons:
1. Technical analysis (see the attached chart)
2. earning season
5. stock markets' resistance levels got broken around the world (europe, japan...)
open position: around 248.00
stop loss: if the price falls below the down trend resistance line on daily chart
stop profit: around 260.00
Dont be over bullish on DOWWe are in the C wave of the correction.
If you want to long, you need to wait for the next impulse to complete the 123.
if we get a bearish flag at the end of 3, this trend down will continue.
Trade at your own risk!
DOW Lifting OffHello friends. We have another major index confirming the bullish bias. I'm not excluding a slightly down day on Tuesday, but there seems to be a good bullish pattern forming up here. Thank you for taking a look and please be careful with money :)
Caution - Dow JonesHuge supply volume in this consolidation, with no demand. DIA is weak and another possible dump down to the 200MA and beyond is on the cards
Bull market 9 years old, second longest bull marketAverage bull market lasts 5 year with a 175% return on average. This market has gained 325% since 2009, getting long in the tooth.
Average bear market decline is 32%.
Time to start getting ready imho.
No one has figured out how to time the market, so we draw lots of lines connecting the dots we hope makes us the money.
doing nothing inside and up on the 15er . this is not a regular post. Just a quick post that I could reuse
