DIA trade ideas
Start of a bear market - DJIA January 2018Using DIA for analysis, because YM is too open to low-volume manipulation.
We have a spectacular breakaway gap on Jan 30th. My read on the market: the 26th ended normally. A discussion happened over the weekend, possibly resulting an old-money divorce. Trust was violated and a family heirloom of important stock was sold Monday morning. This is another reason futures aren't the thing to watch. The trust/heirloom consisted of DJIA stocks themselves, along with some S&P 500's. Insiders knew that stock was never to be sold, unless a massive violation had occurred.
Word got around that morning and old money players sold like crazy. That set off buy programs, as usual, and the morning ended unchanged. After lunch, word got around and they changed their minds. Overnight, word spread resulting in the gap down on Jan 30th. That is a breakaway from prior market conditions. We have an entirely new market driven by fundamentals and a different financial structure. Old assumptions are gone. The so-called PPT no longer has an unlimited line of credit. Also, they can't rely on the same structural support.
This market will not correct until a 1930's type of return to solid value occurs. This is a great unwinding of all financial and monetary manipulations as we return focus to cash flow and real goods sold/exported.
My guess, is Toshiba's example might be followed. In 2015, 8 executives resigned citing $1.2 billion in accounting issues (aka fraud). Some of those executives had been with Toshiba since the 1970's. They seppuku'd themselves and may have done so early enough to avoid criminal prosecution. Time will tell, but at least they did something right showing a semblance of doing the right thing, if not showing remorse. Given the excesses of the 1980's, leading up to the dot com bust of 2000, we have over 30 years of financial manipulation to work through at an individual corporation by corporation basis. While I see brand/corporation surviving, with a total replacement of all board members and executives. Gen-X is tired (I am one of them), so the offers better be kind. Millennials lack experience, but will be assistive in this generational transfer. Back to the point: companies and audits are forthcoming. Don't underestimate the significance of recent Pentagon discoveries. Arthur Anderson went under in 2001, I believe, and auditing will make a comeback.
These corporate numbers represent people's jobs and futures, as well as natural resources and efficient use thereof, while directing them toward quality exports. Americans will have to own up to their marketing and provide value to the world.
Near term I see $180 DIA as a breathing place for support. Fundamentals will be reviewed and I think $140 is likely within a year or two, on the outside. I'd like to see things happen more quickly, as the age of the internet has made communication much faster. There is a time required for emotional integration, and work, however, even with instant information.
How long this bear market lasts and how deep it goes is up to us.
Position: Neutral. I do not advise shorting stocks (manipulation, accounting, etc.) Speculators should focus on ETF's and minis. That will clarify and allow the experts to fix the problems.
Diamonds Aren't Forever. The (DIA) DIAMONDS!!!Hi friends! Welcome to this analysis on the badly beaten, Dow Jones Industrial Average. The instrument that we will be using to review the Dow, is the DIA ETF. Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that the Dow has been trading in a long bearish uptrend formation, known as an ascending broadening wedge (in blue.) Ascending broadening wedges are patterns that typically produce breaks to the downside, and we can see that the bottom side of the wedge was pierced in today's trading action. The pierce of the bottom side of the wedge, has weakened it as a support level. Furthermore, on the previous candle, we actually closed below the wedge. However, traders were quick to print a reversal candle — sending prices right back up into the pattern. If you'll notice, the current candle has closed below the 200 EMA (in purple.) You can see that we actually rallied above it, but closed below. As a form of reference, we haven't been under the 200 EMA, since the night of President Trump's election. That puts a bit of perspective into the significance of this development. Sell-side volume is beginning to dominate the chart, and the MACD is rapidly declining. Assuming that this is the breakdown point of the broadening wedge pattern, I have measured it's height, and subtracted it from the breakdown, to determine a potential downside target. As you can see, a corrective move, that represents the full potential of the broadening wedge pattern, would send prices down to the 61.8% retrace, exactly. I'm not saying that prices will fall there, I'm just saying that, should a breakdown ensue, that level would represent a correction to the full potential of the wedge. Such a correction would represent a 15% decline from current levels. For now, let's take baby steps, and look for evidence to materialize. First, we need to confirm that a sustained breakdown is taking place. Ideally, I would like to see the 200 EMA continue to act as resistance, pushing the DIA back below the lower trendline. At that point, we would need to reassess the underlying indicators, to determine the validity of the breakdown. Speaking of indicators, I'd like to draw your attention to the most recent action on the volume. You can see that the volume bar all the way to the right, is a relatively short bar, compared to the ones behind it. The second bar back, is tall and red. This tells us that significantly more traders were willing to sell into the breakdown of the wedge, than those who were willing to buy the recovery back into it. On the other hand, the MACD does look like it's curling a bit, so the bulls could potentially put a bottom in here. I think that is unlikely, but my thoughts are irrelevant. We need to watch the chart, to know for sure. Look for a break above the 200 EMA and the 23.6% retrace, coupled with a bullish MACD crossover, to signal a reversal to the upside. On the downside, watch for continued pressure from the 200 EMA, followed by a subsequent breakdown below the broadening wedge. Good luck traders!
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-MPC loves you-
-JD-
No One Saw This Coming?Ok this is for fun only....Do not get wrapped up in this but a correction is due.
DIA possible shortPlaying Trading Simulator Game:
If price gaps down (opens below yesterdays low) we may get panic selling, driving the price down.
The Big Boys-DIAToday the market will open lower and retest 23930.....Its nearly there now. I expect a dip of another 1100 points...This is not over in any way shape or form.
I have my eye on the XIV fund for a placement of physical and calls. My calls are at .17 for the 30's March expiry.
My longs are for the same at 5.00 per share. That one excites me the most considering it was 145 dollars a unit 4 days ago....this got clobbered hard.
This is my plan and for information only!
Dia's first potential major supportOver a week ago, I pointed out the extension of the Dia using the monthly RSI, where it has never been this high historically. I am not here to point out that I am right. But it is frustrating when the moves happen so fast, where the human mind can not adapt that fast. This chart shows the potential level of the first major support for the dia. I predict it may be around the 225 to 227 level. If this does not hold, we could have more downside and a potential bear market. The 225 to 227 around the 200 dmva, a 50% retracement of Fib breakout range, top of the breakout channel and finally its a 15% decline from the Dia high.
First real major support for the DiaOver a week ago, I pointed out the extension of the Dia using the monthly RSI, where it has never been this high historically. I am not here to point out that I am right. But it is frustrating when the moves happen so fast, where the human mind can not adapt that fast. This chart shows the potential level of the first major support for the dia. I predict it may be around the 225 to 227 level. If this does not hold, we could have more downside and a potential bear market. The 225 to 227 around the 200 dmva, a 50% retracement of Fib breakout range, top of the breakout channel and finally its a 15% decline from the Dia high.
We could have a top for dowjonesThis is a monthly chart of the Dia. Just look back during the 2008 and 2009 period, we have extremely oversold RSI on monthly basis. As of now, we have the opposite on the upside. Its possible we could see a 2000 points decline in the next few month.
DIA/DXY long term view... will this train continue ? DAI is streached like never before.
fibo was drawn from bottom closing to 2 bars high (daily)
trnd line cinnected highes (daily)
we had a runaway gap in the recent few days that ha been filled.
RSI have never been that high (monthly)
Ascending Channel on DIA (ETF)Ascending Channel on DIA (ETF) with various touch points in the channel's lines
Looking for a down month in all indices All monthly charts closed on upper trend line in a rising wedge, basic bearish set up
may be sideways but a down month or two would be healthy IMO
Neutral trade on DIA (double double)DIA IVR 33.8
Sold the 211/215/201/188 Iron condor
for $4.70
Target 50% of credit received
Ratio 3x the calls spreads for every 1x Puts spreads
The trade:
Sold (3x) 211 Calls
Buy (3x) 215 Calls
Sold (1x) 201 Put
Buy (1x) 188 Put
for $4.70
Max profit $470
Max loss $830
