DIA grinding inside purple triangleshort , Feb 15 179Put, BTO 2 contr. @4.1
entered @176.4 STOP 177.13
inside purple triangle
target 174.16
DIA trade ideas
DIA: Descending TriangleA weakened RSI, MACD, and Stocahstic point to a bearish formation on the Diamonds. A first target is the 200 day SMA in black.
Market Index Bearish Divergence (Brad Reed Jan8,2015)Bearish divergence on DIA. Prepare for a market pull back.
DIA watch (Brad Reed Jan6,2015)X marks the spot for DIA. Coming into lots of support and likely to bounce. WAIT for bounce to confirm and verify you have a good reward risk ratio before entering.
DIA - Diamonds could be a traders best friendOnly looking for the bullish swings. Preferably this heads back to the trend line/support line between 170-174. Still bullish until proven otherwise. Most of the notes are on the chart. Oscillators are headed lower from being overbought. RSI is headed lower faster than stochastics and MACD. ADX is headed higher agreeing with the downswing. BB aren't really playing a part right now.
Side note, hopefully the stops your in place on all other trades because yesterday was a long day.
Leave a note below. Comments and critiques ARE welcome and appreciated.
DIA (Dow Industrials ETF) falls dramatically todayThe Dow fell dramatically today. I wait to see if it will break through the Support Line before proclaiming (once again) that the Big Dip is commencing.
DOW ETF: Wedge closes; we renew our shortWe shorted too soon (Friday last, 7 Nov) and our Stop-Loss Order took us out. Now we observe the wedge closing, a strong indication that the securiy will plunge at last. We renew our short accordingly, looking for several percentage points of profit, and placing a Trailing Stop at 1% rebound.
DOW ETF: Waiting for GodotWaiting for the DOW parabola to reach its top, we have seen many false tops. Is this another, or is it the real thing?
A short punt on the Dow 30 ETFAfter this week's euphoria, the Dow will surley take a dip. This may become the Big Dip, but a punt on a local dip is in order. A Stop Loss in place in case we are wrong, and a Trailing Stop to anticipate the share pulling out of the dip sooner rather than later.
Dow has rallied nicelyUpdate on the Dow. The Dow has also rallied nicely from its MTPredictor DP support zone that I showed in my last Post.
REPUBLISHING JAN 9, 2014 DJIA DIA FORECAST - untouched"""""
2014 Forecast:
The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation.
The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market.
I think this year will be at best a sideways to down year as investors still have very few choices on where to invest and stocks will be a focus, primarily because money has flowed into equities and out of bonds and corporations have repurchased stock and issued debt. Corporate leverage is up. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices.
This is a great time to do the opposite and walk away.
""""""""
I also republished this at the highs this summer to point out that I felt we had 10% down potential going into year end.
DIA AT CRITICAL LEVELDIA is at bottom of lower purple trendline and in a resistance zone of past lows
DJIA ETF -DIA -Daily -August Options Expiry Was Today's LowI normally watch only the SPY (SP500 SPDR ETF) for options expiration key levels, but I thought I'd check the DIA and see how it looked and here it is.
Lately too, the volume on the downside since mid-July has swamped the buying days. So, either people are shorting DIA against their portfolios on down days to hedge (like the good old days) or this is just an observation.
You can see now that 169 is a key resistance area just overhead. If we see 169, I'll be selling and looking for 166 and change to cover, then will look for 164.5, then 164.0.
Cheers.
Tim 11:05PM EST 10/2/2014
DIA - monthly chart studyNoticeable divergence. How long and how far can it go? No idea and do not care. However will dump 100% once the pink support line breaks.
****IMMINENT STOCK MARKET CRASH AT HAND??????******STRANGE******I have not one clue about why this market is behaving the way it is right now . . . The exponential moving averages and the simple moving averages on the DIA suggest that the market is very bullish. MOREOVER, if one takes a look at the ADX indicator, the RSI indicator, the Stochastics indicator, and the MACD indicator, all of these indicators suggest a pullback on a Daily chart. HOWEVER, although the indicators suggest a pullback, strangely enough they tell a different story on a weekly chart. MOREOVER, on a weekly chart the indicators display massive divergence in this market that has been building up for SEVERAL MONTHS!! Furthermore, now that the month of October and November are quickly approaching, then perhaps one would need to consider some precaution, for it may be possible that this weekly scale divergence may unfold during the coming months . . .
****IMMINENT STOCK MARKET CRASH AT HAND??????******STRANGE******I have not one clue about why this market is behaving the way it is right now . . . The exponential moving averages and the simple moving averages on the DIA suggest that the market is very bullish. MOREOVER, if one takes a look at the ADX indicator, the RSI indicator, the Stochastics indicator, and the MACD indicator, all of these indicators suggest a pullback on a Daily chart. HOWEVER, although the indicators suggest a pullback, strangely enough they tell a different story on a weekly chart. MOREOVER, on a weekly chart the indicators display massive divergence in this market that has been building up for SEVERAL MONTHS!! Furthermore, now that the month of October and November are quickly approaching, then perhaps one would need to consider some precaution, for it may be possible that this weekly scale divergence may unfold during the coming months . . .
Dow at a high as well ?Is the Dow Jones at a High as well.? As you can see, the Dow has started to retrace from the MTPredictor DP resistance level, which suggests a decline is now coming. The only question is how far. I have added two possible DP support zones on the chart.
$DIA Monthly chart still looks long(BIG TIME FRAME)No reason to think market will crash/capitulate. It MUST distribute 1st, AFTER we break parabolic curve. We should come down a little in coming weeks, but healthy for more upside.
REPUBLISHING Tim West's January 2014 FORECAST FOR DJIAI just find it interesting that so far this forecast is going along pretty close to reality - The market did move down in the first part of the year and it dropped the same magnitude (almost exactly) as forecast. Then the new high occurred and that happened after the correction and to nearly the exact same price as forecast. Now that we are facing the end of the year and the forecast was for a decline into the end of the year... can you believe that this forecast will come true???
Tim 8/16/2014 3:36PM EST Saturday
Here's the text of the forecast for this year 2014, from January:
2014 Forecast:
The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation.
The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market.
I think this year will be at best a sideways to down year as investors still have very few choices on where to invest and stocks will be a focus, primarily because money has flowed into equities and out of bonds and corporations have repurchased stock and issued debt. Corporate leverage is up. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices.
This is a great time to do the opposite and walk away.
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