DIA trade ideas
2011 Dow High v. Current Price ActionJust for fun - history rarely repeats but often rhymes. Good luck!
DIA 8/23/13Hammer formed in oversold condition. Wait for Monday to confirm momentum. Need a positive candle and higher volume. Look to test old high and pass it. Stop loss should be support at ~148.
Dow Jones Industrials forecast from Feb 1st (repubublished)"2013 FORECAST:
Once again, 20 weeks of time have developed at one price AND the market has climbed above that level (of 129) signaling an advance for the next 20 weeks.
The DIA has price resistance from old highs and therefore will likely chop sideways for the better part of the year, with sharp sell-offs to keep the short sellers happy and for trendlines to break but without causing any problems.
The market is supported by a bloated bond market and the money that will flow OUT of bonds and into equities over this year. The stock market is RESTRAINED by higher crude oil prices (see my previous forecasts) and higher tax rates, both on income and capital gains. Weak economic growth also impedes market gains. The heavy cash position of corporations will support the market through stock buybacks and new debt financings, coupled with take-overs and mergers. The side-ways chop I am forecasting is the best way to confuse the most amount of investors and proceed along the path of least resistance, which is sideways to up.
Happy Investing.
Tim West, Feb 1, 2013"
DIA Dow Jones Industrials FORECAST for 2013 by Tim West2013 FORECAST:
Once again, 20 weeks of time have developed at one price AND the market has climbed above that level (of 129) signaling an advance for the next 20 weeks.
The DIA has price resistance from old highs and therefore will likely chop sideways for the better part of the year, with sharp sell-offs to keep the short sellers happy and for trendlines to break but without causing any problems.
The market is supported by a bloated bond market and the money that will flow OUT of bonds and into equities over this year. The stock market is RESTRAINED by higher crude oil prices (see my previous forecasts) and higher tax rates, both on income and capital gains. Weak economic growth also impedes market gains. The heavy cash position of corporations will support the market through stock buybacks and new debt financings, coupled with take-overs and mergers. The side-ways chop I am forecasting is the best way to confuse the most amount of investors and proceed along the path of least resistance, which is sideways to up.
Happy Investing.
Tim West, Feb 1, 2013
Are We In A Dead Cat Rally?Based on the "Most investors sell on the bottom" chart I upgraded the analysis. The pattern repeatedly shows that after initial sell-off there is a rally. This so called "Dead cat" rally usually meets the strong resistance of 50 day MA followed by another drop.
Current pattern obviousely shows we are in rally mode, however there is high probability for further drop if 50 MA appears to be the turning corner again.
Best
CapitalHubs.com
Most Investors Sell At The BottomThe chart ultimately proves the statement: "Most of the investors sell at the bottom". Think about it!
Best
CapitalHubs.com
DIA forecast through year endThis is a purely technical guesstimate for how the market will advance given the pschological, sentiment, monetary, economic environment as I analyze it. The waves are just guesses based on market reactions to visible support and resistance levels. I "saved" this yesterday with the DIA at 128 and now with the market back up to 129.70, it appears that the support level down at 124-120 appears solid and it shouldn't be tested for at least another 10 weeks.
The important element of this chart is the amount of time that has been spent prior to the breakout rally. The more time and accumulation, the bigger and longer lasting the rally. All the while, even though VIX has been low indicating complacency, equity mutual fund outflows have been strong which continues to show fear. Now that we are one day into earnings reporting season and the trend is positive.
Cheers. Technical Tim April 12, 2012 3:59PM EST
DIA Dow Jones Industrials forecast refreshed but untouchedI updated the data, but didn't change any of the forecast lines. The market is eerily tracing out the pattern.
DIA forecast still in tact I have made no changes to this chart. I only added updated price bars by hitting the "make it live" button.
