DIA MAJOR TOP 377.5 to 382.7 I am now 100 % short today I have now moved to 100 % long PUTS in the money 380 puts for june 2024 Look for an event on or about jan 11 to the 18 th if the dow at anytime can reach into 38200 to 38400 I will add 15 % long puts we are now 1.8 % above the dji monthly BB BANDS market panics since 1902 to today have seen drops and beginning BEAR MARKETS from 1.4 to 3.5 % above this point as of today we hit 1.8 % PUT CALL MODELS are at july peak and Bullish SEDIMENT is now into BELL RING warning signals into a low due march 10 to the 20th . best of trades WAVETIMER
DIA trade ideas
DIA DOW ETF ShortDIA tracking the DOW widely in an ETF format on the two hour chart had a 7% rise in the
past month which was widely followed in the investment media. I believe that it was a bull
trap. In the past week price action has been sideways while the Stochastic RSI shows
bearish divergence as does the zero lag MACD. Tradign Volumes has fallen off since
burst of buying volume in mid and late November which pushed the price up 7%.
In the past week, relative volatility has fallen off in general and now negative volatility
exceeds positive. I believe that this is a top for the time being. A short position will be
taken of 10 shares with a stop above the top at 363 The target is 342 just above the POC
line, where high liquidity and volatility will return as long positions, would pile back in there
and get a bounce or even a squeeze. This would be about a reward of 8 for a risk of 2, which
seems reasonable. I will however take a 1/3 partial at 350 where the Fibonacci retracement
comes into play. The SDOW ETF would be another way to play this idea.
Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:DIA chart anaylsis/mapping.
DIA ETF on relative strength compared to recent SPY/QQQ performance, indicating potential market rotation.
Trading scenarios:
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib.
Shallow pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / ascending trend-line (green dashed) / gap fill confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = gap fills / descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone.
Deeper pullback #1 = Golden Pocket Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue).
Capitulation #2 = gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = gap fills / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
THE SHORT SQUEEZE BULL TRAP The chart posted is that of the DIA this is my top wave count The short squeeze .I see this as wave A up within the bear we should now see a 3 way drop back to 50 to 618 5 of this rally if not a retest near .786 from this we should see wave C up once again just past today peak . Then THE BEAR PHASE should be seen . For my view to change The IWM and RSP would have to break above the july high odds at 15 % as we hit the targets in IWM 161.8 and rsp the sp held 4107 a 500 point drop this is now wave 1 of C down we are in wave 2 up the most this should see is 4415 BUT I doubt this . The VIX is setup for a rather BIG up move
Too much supportWe could the return of the DOW. Price is just landing on a strong support zone. Next week we could see a big, fat green candle (engulfing) and heading higher from there. I may buy a few calls on Friday, I want to see if the support holds. BTW I pulled up a 2 weeks chart for better visualization but it reads the same in a weekly chart.
THE LAST RALLY in The BEAR MARKET RALLY WAVE B TOPThe chart posted tonight is the DIA tracking share we have declined in a three wave decline and from the cycle peak due on july 26/27 into the panic cycle 55 to 62 days down from sept 23 to oct 4 focus on the 25 th of sept we should enjoy a major short squeeze event in the spy dia qqq and smh . I am working on the time spirals as well as the fib time relationships I have labeled the DIA as a diagonal and it should the old record high within or above by 2 % before the WAVE C CRASH see 1998 /1999 fractals to form from the cycle low of oct 13 1998 and oct 13th 2022 a mirror image . The 5 th of the 5 was the top into my dec8th 2021 report .
Dow Jones make or breakThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is currently positioned at a significant support line stemming from a bearish pattern known as a rising wedge. Yesterday, it rebounded from this support line, but it is crucial to observe a stronger upward movement to maintain its position above this level. If the DJIA breaks below this lower trend line, it will invalidate the pattern and potentially trigger a substantial market drop.
The price is currently oscillating between the support line of the trend and the 200-day moving average (MA), which lies just below it, along with the 50-day MA that is positioned above. This configuration suggests that a more pronounced price movement is imminent.
Upon analyzing the Russell 2000 index (Russel) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) — both of which are indicated as showing signs of a potential downward movement in myr other analyses — it appears that there is a higher likelihood for the DJIA to experience a significant decline in the near future.
SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLEPrice has broken the support line.
Neutral pattern until broken.
Has broken to the downside.
Tight triangle and price action fills the structure.
Fib levels applied to calculate targets.
The white line represents a 100% fall but can fall to a lesser or greater fib level.
I use .382, .618, .786, 1, 1.272 and 1.618, but some may use another method of calculation.
No recommendation
DIA WAVE B LOW IS IN WAVE C UP TO START NOW TARGET 355 The DIA is not the same wave structure formed as compared to spy or qqq . it was a very clear 5 wave up and we now have a clear 3 wave decline we should now see a nice 5 wave rally to 355 and this would be a ABC rally from that peak we will see a PANIC FORM ideal date to peak sept 12 now
08/25/23 Idea Weeklyobservation
08/25/23: price action has fallen below the 5 (green) ema and broke through the 13 ema (yellow) and since recoverd and currently between 5 (green) and 13 ema (yellow)
current price action: 342.31
this is telling me that bears are now in control of price and are making moves to head lower. this is supported by the 30 ema moving average (purple) being above the 21 (red). which basically means that if we fall below the 30 ema moving (purple) we will head for the next biggest which would be 50 ema moving average (orange) followed by the 100 day moving average (blue). on the flip side if we hold the 30day moving average (purple) we will move up towards the next bearish order block (red brick).
Opening (Margin): DIA Aug 18th 348/Sept 15th 351/2 x 359... Covered Zebra.
Comments: A variation on one of the bearish assumption setups I described over the weekend. (See Post Below).
Here, the September 15th 351/2 x 359 is the Zebra aspect, which functions as synthetic short stock. This is, in turn, "covered" by an additional short put so the entire setup has the delta metrics of a covered put (short stock, plus a short put).
Put on for an 11.10 debit, I'll look to take profit starting for around 10% of what I put in on for.
DIA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Achieved target at 351 after breaking Rectangle formation.
🔹Supports 342 in NEGATIVE reaction.
🔹RSI curve shows rising trend, supporting positive trend.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Rising WedgeRising Wedge noted. The wedge is also noted on the hourly timeframe.
Both trendlines (orange) slope up and narrow at the apex.
This pattern is not valid until the bottom line is broken and is considered a bearish signal.
This pattern shows up in charts when the price moves upward with pivot highs and lows converging toward a single point known as the apex.
The rising wedge is a technical chart pattern used to identify possible trend reversals.
The pattern appears as an upward-sloping price chart featuring two converging trendlines.
It is usually accompanied by decreasing trading volume.
Wedges can either form in the rising or falling direction.
A rising wedge is often considered a bearish chart pattern that indicates a potential breakout to the downside.
No recommendation