DJP trade ideas
VXX looks ready for a move to the upside!For this analysis we overlay our Proprietary Oscillator over the price chart and we can see a pretty large positive divergence. We are looking for price to run up to possibly the $22 range and have written a pretty extensive article on our site.
VXX update. Looks like it's playing out well. Vix above 20 is dangerous. Protect profits and trail stops on this as it like sot make reversals during the overnight session sometimes.
Spot to buy some protection? AMEX:VXX , derivative on CBOE:VIX index suggests that we are in good spot to buy some protection. Market participants are very optimistic in recent days, but coronavirus risks still unresolved. In fact, data from China continues to be rather worrying. If we to start another leg lower in equities, today is a good day for it.
VXX - PT $16.94Finally broke out of downtrend channel in a meaningful way. Impulse leg looks like it could carry to $16.94. Volatility is back!
VXX - Gap filled!Volatility is back and VXX may actually have a little room to run here. After filling the gap from Monday it appears it may be headed up as coronavirus and Fed speak give the market a little scare. Watching the VIX closely to see if it can take out the high from Monday.
OPENING: VXX MARCH 20TH 12/14 SHORT CALL VERTICAL... for a 1.19/contract credit.
Notes: Adding a little to my existing position (same strikes) on this pop. Although it now looks unlikely that we will clear the short call strike at 12 by March expiry given current price and average decay rates, we'll see how it goes. 1.09/contract collected on the first tranche; 1.19 collected on this one. In this particular case, both tranches are of an equal number of contracts, so I've collected (1.09 + 1.19)/2 = 1.14 per contract, so my position break even is the short call strike plus the per contract credit collected or 13.14.
If you did two contracts on the first tranche at 1.09 and three on the second tranche at 1.19, your break even calculation would be /5 = 1.15/contract.
Will look to shed units at 50% max and then roll out for duration and forced credit if necessary to give the remainder of the position time to work out.
ROLLING: VXX FEBRUARY 21ST 14/16 SCV TO MARCH 20TH 12/14 SCV... for a .41/contract credit and for a realized gain of .34/contract.
Notes: My preference would be to roll these down on strength, but staying mechanical and rolling out at 50% max of credit received. Total credits received now at 1.09/contract, so the roll also has the salutory effect of actually reducing setup risk; the max loss metric was previously 1.32/contract, and now it's .91.
To some, the short call might appear "too deep" in the money, but VXX (on average) loses about 6% of its value per month, so it's conceivable that if there are no major pops here that VXX could trundle down to sub-12 in the next 60 days. Naturally, if we do get a pop, I'll add units and go from there ... .
OPENING: VXX FEBRUARY 21ST 15/16 SHORT CALL VERTICAL... for a .33/contract credit.
Notes: My 2020 short volatility starter position, collecting one-third the width of the spread. The natural alternative is to go with the 14/17, which also pays one-third, but I'm not picking a hugely fabulous spot to start this with VIX at 13.85, so going the narrow route and small with the number of contracts.
Will manage this organically: (a) rolling down/down and out as a unit to at-the-money on approaching worthless; (b) rolling out and widening if necessary to force a credit on a pop; and (c) narrowing the spread post-widening when that becomes opportune.
VXX - up $1.00 After HoursFutures getting hit for 300 on Iranian attack of Al Asada's Airbase with US Troops. Retaliation strike. Gold up over $20. This could finally be the time for those hedges to shine.
VXXI know... don't fight the FED! Well i'm fed up with the FED and the blatant manipulation. Volatility is dirt cheap and ripe for a blowup.
VXX - manipulationVXX cratered when the plunge protection team (Trump with his tweet) decided to set parameters around today's sell-off to have a very tight trading range. Down 70 cents from the open. This nonsense won't last in 2020. Looking for volatility to pick up dramatically.
VXX - tight daily trading rangesVXX has done nothing but slide all year as volatility VIX remains below historical norms. RSI divergence and tightest trading ranges I've seen all year. Looks like something has to give soon. Six cent trading range today so far. This just can't continue to stay this way. Market maculation at its finest.
OPENING: VXX 14/15 JANUARY 17TH ZEBRAWith VIX hovering around 2019 lows, re-upping with another "Zebra" ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: Undefined
Max Loss: $221/setup
Break Even: 15.23
Delta/Theta: 85.16/-1.07
Notes: There are several different ways to look at this trade: (a) as a long call vertical + an additional long call; (b) long calls, the cost of which is cut by selling a short against; or (c) a synthetic long stock position (at least on setup, since its delta is dynamic). In any event, looking for a pop between now and expiry. Take profit on these is subjective, since it's awfully hard to tell when VIX has topped out and max profit in the setup is "theoretically infinite" due to the additional long call present in the spread.
VXX - Room to go!Market giving all the bears another bite at the apple this morning with Bloomberg report that trade talks are moving along...."sources said". Ultimately looking for this to trade up to the 25 area which would coincide with a correction in the market that could still sustain a continue uptrend. RSI and MACD favorable. Look for a retracement down in the 17.50 to 17.80 area before next leg up. VIX under 15 again this morning. Need a move above 18 in VIX for VXX to get moving to that 25 area.
Power Play Special. Long with much caution. Possible huge upside play with bullish option flow throughout the month. I don't recommend playing this one however. Very risky. Short term target 17.71, then will find support around 16. Possible move to 25 late December.
OPENING: VXX DEC 20TH 16/18 "ZEBRA"I've dicked around long enough waiting to put something on at or near VIX lows, and I like this particular setup here, although I obviously didn't catch things at VIX lows.
Metrics:
Max Profit: Undefined/Infinite
Max Loss: 3.03 ($303)
Break Even: 17.51 versus 17.57 spot
Delta: 98.9
Theta: -.83
Notes: With the classic "Zebra", you're looking for a setup in which the short option "pays for" all of the extrinsic in the longs, resulting in a break even at or below where the underlying is currently trading. Given the delta metric, you're basically in synthetic long stock. The max profit is "theoretically infinite," with the long call vertical aspect of the setup converging on max at >18 and the additional long call converging on an instrinsic value where the underlying is trading.
Naturally, a monstrous pop would be nice, but will probably money, take, run at the earliest opportunity. From a trade management standpoint, this is basically "unmanaged" -- i.e., it works or it doesn't ... .
VXX - VIX Tracker?VXX is a very tough instrument to trade. Although it tracks volatility, it has many factors that contribute to its decay over time when compared to historical VIX levels. As such it is best to set s top loss on this and only trade what you are willing to lose. This has been trading lower now for 7 weeks or so and today's drop looks like it could be close to a turning point. Not sure it happens this shortened holiday week but I'm looking for a move back to the midline very soon, and something bigger over the next couple months. VIX is under 12 today and typically this has market bottoms in volatility.
TRADE IDEA: VXX -16P/+18P/+18C/-20C SUPER BULLI'm not hugely fond of going long volatility, particularly in an instrument that gets routinely battered by contango and/or beta erosion.
With VIX closing in on its 2019 low, however, it may be time to consider one.
Pictured here is a VXX "Super Bull" made up of a 16/18 short put vertical and a 18/20 long call vertical. As of Friday close, it pays a small .11 credit, has a 2.11 max profit, a 1.89 max loss, and a break even of 17.89 versus 18.87 spot, with max profit assuming a finish above 20.
You can also go smaller -- the 17/18/18/19 pays .07, has a max profit of 1.07, a max loss of .93, and a break even of 17.93.
Look to manage aggressively starting at 25% max ... .
$VXX So looks like it might bounce up to $28 which is about where the EMA50 on the weekly time frame. Do you use the EMAs? I have set mine to 20 and 50 as there is a lot of price action interaction with these settings. (EMA - exponential moving average)
Also I have no fucking idea how this instrument works, im just noticing a pattern with that EMA which would be my target (to ride to that EMA or last high or low or S/R line. Generally thats how i set my targets
