DJP trade ideas
We could be trading in a range for the next 15 daysGood day folks,
Based on volatility, the market could trade within a range for the next 15 days. So VXX is on channel support and into an ascending triangle (bullish). Resistance at 40. If the chart is good, this could provide a few long and short opportunities.
Thank you,
VXX - Butterfly Pattern broke. Now looking for Bat PatternUh OH! The butterfly pattern was broke this morning. (note the red X )
Is the long term bullish VXX trade dead? Nah!,
I still think that we will see the bullish move up in VXX. The harmonic patterns simply "evolve". The next high probability turn expected is the completion of the Bat Pattern at the Pesky Gap! shown and the green Buy Zone along the (pink) dashed line.
On this deep retracement, we need to be careful and watch the low pointed out in the red and yellow note. That point voids these patterns.
I am still bullish on VXX and Bearish on SPY
VXX -Target in the green Buy zone reached!Updated chart since last one was sent out. Looks like the Blue butterfly is completed and the 61.8% (pink) Bat pattern may begin to pivot here soon. This could be the wave 2.
Lets see if the VXX begins to hold in this retracement green zone as shown.
If the VXX begins to hold and then turn up, we should see the SPY begin to sell off soon, beginning wave 3
I am long VXX and short SPY
VXX - SPY Still on Track!Looking at the VXX chart here, it lines up well with the previously posted charts about the Jan 18 turn date. The Spy has dropped as the VXX broke up out of the the long down trending channel since Dec 24. The recent turn up in VXX as shown here is a great "contrary" indicator to manage the SPY trades.
The recent pullback action in VXX may complete a Butterfly Pattern (as shown here in blue). This target also lines up well with a 61.8% retracement target in the larger Bat Pattern (shown in pink).
Although this chart is zoomed in as we look down for the next turning point marking wave 2, we can expect the SPY to move in the opposite direction and try one more time at the recent highs set back on Jan 18, but it will probably fail and then begin the long grinding 3rd wave down.
The VXX chart shown here, will of course begin it's 3rd wave up and meet initial resistance at the pink dashed line. Then expect a period of consolidation as the pattern begins to pack and build some energy. After that we can expect The Bat Pattern target to be reached way back up near the 50.20 zone!
This forecast is voided if the VXX drops lower than the low set on Jan 18. Until then I'm long on VXX :)
Is the VXX trying to tell us something?I feel that VXX is making a run up within the next 3 months, Something is happening in the financial system and the market, economy and investors might not like it.
The VXXThe VXX is a stock created to track volatility in the stock market. Basically, the stock acts as a form of insurance. Its there for when the stock market crashes. The stock goes up when the overall broader stock market falls. In times of uncertainty or during an economic decline the volatility (VXX) will rise while investors sell stocks. Currently we are seeing uncertainty (government shutdown, China trade war and rising interest rates) we do not have economic decline. I created a trend line on the VXX once the Federal Reserve had its meeting October earlier of last year. Since then, the pattern seems to hold on that particular trend line. Today was the third time price had reached the trend line in a couple of weeks and I thought it would be a good idea to pay attention. It would be a fair assumption that if the White House doesn't open the government or China trade deal cannot be reached the VXX index will move up like it did twice in the last 3-4 months. It would make sense to hold shares of VXX until either the government reopens or there is a resolution on the China trade deal.
Market analysis We go higherI believe that new highs is on the horizon. In the video I describe a couple of events that lead me to believe the rally is not over.
Is a reversal coming?In the video I explain what I saw on the VIX in early hours as well as events in the news that could keep the present rally continuing. Hope you like the video.
Weekly Market analysis with some commentary on cannabis sect Looking for a continuation of a downtrend on the VXX with a possible Head n Shoulders pattern that will complete in the following 2 weeks or so. Will just have to see if it plays out.
History repeatingTwice in the last year this has created very clear descending wedge patterns (bullish reversal) that break with heavy volume following a tightening range. I'm waiting for the next one to form.
A slight bullish divergence in the RSI suggests we may be heading to higher VXX in the future. If this third wedge forms, the breakout could mark the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern on the S and P.
VXX at supportwould like to see some sort of up move tomorrow to confirm. 55 by friday for powell? $SPY
$VXX we're going to see another round. New target $52$VXX we're going to see another round. New target $52
Market Analysis and Forecast for 2019I think the markets have scaled back is because of overall debt. In the video I explain the difference between the 2009 crash and today's market downtrend.
Mirror, mirror on the wall say whats the best trade of them allZero risk volatility
The main risk free rate of return is the US government treasury bill and that is one of the oldest bull markets we have today. With rates so close to zero, some argue the market have already peaked.
Weaponized "exorbitant privilege"
The US monopoly over the global payments infrastructure has been challenged by Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, after European businesses have been caught between the European Union and the US over trade with Iran amid US sanctions. If both Russia, China and now Europe create their own payment systems, the world can route around the weapon that is now the dollar and the world dependence on the dollar will subside. By weaponizing their currency USA risk loosing the dollar as world reserve currency.
The zero lower bound
When interest rates are super low, central banks can not lower them that much more. This creates a liquidity trap and the phenomena is well known. This becomes a big problem when the economy is imploding and needs stimulating. Since central bank can not lower the rates, the government will instead have to spend. Hopefully they will print money and spend on building (instead of going to war) out infrastructure. The Chinese "One Belt One Road" is a good example. If the Chinese succeeds, this will also contribute to shifting financial power away from the dollar.
Loose cannons on a ship
If the world starts to route around the dollar and the T-bills as zero risk might comes into question, the big question is what can replace it. It has to be something that is deep and liquid enough. Can you think of something obvious? Me neither. So if there is nothing obvious, a whole lot of money will start looking for something that at least won't go to zero. If government starts spending on infrastructure commodities might become a money magnet.
Commodities
The US stock market have already had a huge record breaking bull market and subsequently one of the sharpest dops. Commodities on the other hand has been more or less ignored for a very long while. Even though the world is eating more food and building more stuff and there is talk "peak in this and that", the narratives have failed to compete with that of IPOs on Nasdaq. If commodities starts going up in price, this will also add fuel to inflation which is a boon in a deflationary economy and will help to inflate the huge debt burden of the world (which is a reason why I believe those in power won't try to prevent it).
Current
I've been a dollar bull since it started to trade upwards some time ago and as the world stock markets started to go down. I think the dollar will strengthen as more problems in the economies of the world starts to surface. Then after that.... then I think commodities will start to trend upwards.
Big Green day...What's next??Look for an open higher VXX (lower your favorite tickers). I look for a short on the open then will go long on my watchlist tickers. If not I believe for price action to yield little results from yesterday's move. Good luck!!
VXX -Getting up there! Hmmm...With the recent sell offs VXX is getting pretty volatile. Wondering what sparks the market sell off to create the bullish spike in VXX soon? Looks like around Dec 21 zone. This would complete the Cypher Pattern and lines up with other resistance and channels as shown and Completing wave C up.
