VXX putGood opportunity!
Bought June 16th $60 put for $14.
Break-even $46, it was $42 just a few days ago, when
the volatility comes down, it
will come down fast.
DJP trade ideas
Market now looking to go BearishWith the massive selloff in the market today and the great setup on the VIX it is looking like this little bull run could now be over.
In my 2 chart pics I have the daily charts of the SPY and the VXX. This looks very obvious that the VXX is ready to spike which will send the market lower.
It is always important when determining where the market is going, to look at the vix. If the vxx is bearish the market is likely bullish, if the vxx is bullish the market will likely be bearish. It will mostly be opposite.
So right now the VXX is setting up very bullish for Friday. I will be mostly looking for bearish setups to trade on Friday for the top stocks and indicess
Now it is also important to view the futures over night because they could easily turn around a rally setting up for a gap up in the SPY the next day.
Inflation poised to get a hair cut The chart of $DJP, the Dow Jones Commodity ETF, if forming a descending triangle, which typically is a bearish manifestation on the charts, particularly when it occurs as a continuation pattern. I will take a short position here if a BO occurs.
Unusually CalmTime will tell
No recommendation.
Periods of low volatility are followed by periods of high volatility
How Low Will it Go?VXX went down to 14.33. From what I an find that is an ATL (all time low)
Very low in the scheme of things.
No recommendation
$VXX looks like it's about to explode higherSo far the selloff has been pretty orderly the entire year and trying to play volatility hasn't worked. I think that's about to change.
$VXX has been consolidating in these two channels and looks like it's about to explode higher. If we can see $VXX get above $21 or so, I think we're about to see a huge move in $VXX. Similar to what we saw in March 2020.
I've marked off key levels of resistance on the upside. Let's see if it plays out over the coming weeks.
Ready for some volatility?Historically VIX bottoms around $20 and then tends to create some chaos. As we see here the VXX RSI has bottomed and MACD is close to crossing up. Looks like an upside move for VIX and VXX soon.
Big move in VXX brewingWhat we have here is a very LOOONG pennant on VXX. We already had the breakout back in September and since then have created a whole pennant for the retest of the breakout. From how things look now, the apex of the smaller pennant is due to breakout no later than November 22. The yellow rectangles are gaps within the price action. The retest has a gap to be filled and the breakout target is RIGHT at the gap fill of the second from bottom gap. Breakout target for VXX is $27.30
Combine this chart with what I just recently shared on SPY, shows there are darker days ahead.
Commodity Index Bearish ContinuationA basket of commodities continuing its downtrend. If we break to new lows, expect further decline.
VXX
Looks like we located a potential market anomaly on the daily timeframe. As we approach a potential end to the A/C wave, there looks to have been a sign of weakness as we have a few candles during the most recent a/c wave that are giving us some information (Bullish candle/bearish volume). Since then we have seen price start a small bullish move. Looks like an expanded flat where are at now. The MacD is starting to shift momentum towards the upside and would love to see a crossover while price attempts to reach up to 50%-70% of the previous wave (wave B) high. An impulsive wave would be an early Christmas. Happy trading!
VXX (VIX ETN) hints yet again of increasing volatilityRushing this out before market opens...
The VIX index is rather special (to me) and it is not feasible to use usual technical analysis on that chart IMHO. So, I use the VXX (VIX ETN) for a better idea when volatility spikes might occur. Am observing one just now with an apparent alignment of weekly adn daily factors in the charts.
On the weekly chart, noted that there was previously a bullish divergence where the VXX kept going lower whilst the MACD (left lowest bottom panel) crept up. Noted that when we had the MACD crossover, the following week(s) come with volatility spikes. There is an early indication that we might see a MACD crossover this or next week, suggesting that August would be volatile. The candlestick formed last week gapped up, attempted to close the gap, but closed at the high. This is a rather bullish candlestick, and an identified wedge breakout just might happen this week.
The daily chart uncannily bears (pun not intended) a similar pattern, but with more details, as the last day of last week closed in a similar looking candlestick, along with a gap up (that attempted to close and reopened), as well as a MACD crossover. These MACD crossovers in 2022 have been marked, last posted about this on 12 Feb 2022, which saw a period of higher volatility. Then formed the identified wedge, and bouncing off the wdge support twice, this time, it suggests that volatility is about to spike, and would probably breakout of the wedge.
Taken together, this uncanny alignment forewarns of clear and present volatility for the weeks to follow...
Having said that, I suspect that this is might be a short and sharp spike that could end the bearish status for a couple of months until we get into 2023. That's another discussion altogether.
Meanwhile, hold on to your pants, be ready for the volatility storms!
VXX Good entry for long postion.Good Risk reward here on VXX.
$21 a good price level for entry to upside with SPY closing the $400 gap.
Long hold.
VXX - Amazing time to load on more VXX!-VXX being limited from Barclays is already high, higher than it normally should be.
-Any smart investor should take the great opportunity VXX offers. Not only its deemed to drop in the long term due to SPY's overall statistical tendency to rise, but also at some point Barclays will print them more, and then it will drop even more aggressively.
-Print them puts or open some short calls Ladies and Gents!
OUR EXPECTATION:
We think VXX might rise a little more from this point on due to SPY dropping lower and lower, but its good to start shorting now and slowly adding on each rise in VXX.
DJP holds TL or GANN support @37; FIBO levels dictate INFLATION!DJP, a commodities play, is an inflation hedge. If DJP breaks 37 voiding the Trendline or GANN FAN line support, then inflation may have peaked out temporarily.
Holding 37, DJP may see higher inflation numbers.\
Note that all impt FIBO levels are respected here in increments of 4.
37 is the 2.618 level of 31 to 27.
If 37 holds, the next resistance is at 41, the 3.618 & next higher high is 45 the 4.618 level.
If 37 breaks, the next support is 33, @1.618 FIBO.
Not trading advice
VXX short using weekly put optionFundamental Analysis
Taking advantage of the recent volatility tracked by the VIX, and using VXX ETF for exposure to the VIX Future.
Recently the market is poised to move into bearish territory with rampant inflation and the Feds hands tied in making monetary changes swiftly.
Technical Analysis
Chart is forming a double-top pattern in the making.
MACD cross of May 10th approaching zero level.
Stochastics approaching 20 level.
Chart forming a wedge pattern hovering around 38% retracement.
RSI hovering around 50 level and below 14-day SMA. Awaiting further confirmation
Looks like a 40% chance at the moment of this publish for the short to succeed.
Using stop-loss to manage risk.
VXX moving sidewaysDespite the recent volatility in the tech sector, the S&P 500 VXX is still operating as if in a low volatility environment. VXX is a good hedge for a portfolio but technical analysis is showing sideways momentum, with key resistance levels at 30.18 still not broken. This low volatility in general can help in getting in at a cheaper price for when volatility does kick into full gear, or to purchase a longer-dated call option for when volatility does kick into high gear.
VXX - The only safe haven we have!-Lads and gents, don't even bother yourself with pointless technicals and fundamentals, right now the market has nothing to offer you all except uncertainty.
-While VXX on the other hand has the amazing opportunity as it is no more supplied, so limited supply + rising volatility due to the market condition, create this one-time opportunity to load on them vertical/naked shorted calls! Sell as many as you can for 40-50 day period.
-Once they will start printing vxx again and spy will slowly find a support, vxx will drop like a rock
VXX Long Trade AMEX:VXX TVC:VIX VANTAGE:SP500
The main reason to be bullish in an instrument that is -99.99% down and continues to depreciate all the time is that VXX usually sees explosive moves when the S&P 500 declines, and the moves in VXX typically far exceed the movement in the S&P 500. And so as the S&P just made lower high and lower low and we want to protect our portfolio from the possible upcoming drop which is obvious with the fundamentals around with spiking inflation and interest rates and just technically we can expect -150$ drop in the index, and if we break this resistance level than we can expect an even bigger decline and the possible Take Profit level could be placed even higher, on the other hand, it is a very volatile instrument and it is preferable to be more conservative in taking profits.
Entry 26$
SL-23.50(1.50$)
TP1-30$ :Risk-Reward 1.50
TP2-36$ :Risk-Reward 3.90
Commodities gap turned support; bounced above TL, VWAPs & 0.236DJP commodities back to short term uptrend with 2 higher highs & now also 2 higher lows. It just recovered the uptrend line after filling the previous up-gap (the green zone). It also bounced above the 2 VWAPs & FIB 0.236 level.
However, it still have to go back inside the ascending triangle where it BO from. If DJP holds the TL & also go back into triangle in the next few days, then this BO was a beartrap.
Not trading advice
VXX - Shorts seems to be running out of steamEarly to say, but VXX is starting to diverge from the MAs...suggesting flag breakdown.
Still time to snap back above 24.5, but the downside risk seems higher now.
Keep your shorts lights until action is clear.
VXX - Something BIG is brewingCup with Handle on the VXX --- Oh, it's HOT alright..
I'm betting on a breakout...maybe one last shake out first? ....
Fed Watch Charts 1/26 @ 2pmFOMC Interest Rate Decision is at 2pm today, followed by a press conference at 2:30. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Investors watch interest rate changes closely as changes in interest rates can have both positive and negative effects on the markets. The Fed lowers interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth, as lower financing costs can encourage borrowing and investing. However, when rates are too low, they can spur excessive growth and subsequent inflation, undermining the sustainability of the economic expansion. When there is too much growth, the Fed can then raise interest rates in order to slow inflation and return growth to more sustainable levels. Here's a 4 split chart window of VTI (total US equity market), VXX (S&P Vix), GUSH (Oil & Gas) & Bitcoin. I didn't care to fit in TLT or TLH (Bond) chart. Below is a list of Interest Rate history:
Jan 26, 2022 14:00 TBA
Dec 15, 2021 14:00 0.25%
Nov 03, 2021 13:00 0.25%
Sep 22, 2021 13:00 0.25%
Jul 28, 2021 13:00 0.25%
Jun 16, 2021 13:00 0.25%
Apr 28, 2021 13:00 0.25%
Mar 17, 2021 13:00 0.25%
Jan 27, 2021 14:00 0.25%
Dec 16, 2020 14:00 0.25%
Nov 05, 2020 14:00 0.25%
Sep 16, 2020 13:00 0.25%
Jul 29, 2020 13:00 0.25%
Jun 10, 2020 13:00 0.25%
Apr 29, 2020 13:00 0.25%
Mar 15, 2020 16:00 0.25%
Mar 03, 2020 10:00 1.25%
Jan 29, 2020 14:00 1.75%
Dec 11, 2019 14:00 1.75%
Oct 30, 2019 13:00 1.75%
Sep 18, 2019 13:00 2.00%
Jul 31, 2019 13:00 2.25%
Jun 19, 2019 13:00 2.50%
May 01, 2019 13:00 2.50%
Mar 20, 2019 13:00 2.50%
Jan 30, 2019 14:00 2.50%
Dec 19, 2018 14:00 2.50%
Nov 08, 2018 14:00 2.25%
Sep 26, 2018 13:00 2.25%
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
