DJP trade ideas
OPENING: VXX OCT 20TH 52/54 SHORT CALL VERT... for a .50 credit.
Probability of Profit: 63%
Max Profit: $50/contract
Max Loss: $150/contract
Break Even: 52.50
Notes: Setting this up at the 50 delta strike. The set up isn't that "sexy" in terms of premium collected versus max loss, but going small on this minor VIX pop. Would prefer going 50 delta short call vert in this instrument on corresponding /VX front month at 16 or greater, but ain't getting any younger ... .
VIX Bullish Descending triangle?Interesting setup here. Always bearish VIX products, but can't ignore some chart patterns. (Perma-bear posting bullish chart) Selling my SVXY if it breaks above.
VIX has the chances of reversalWe've seen S&P500 futures chart climbing to the new all time highs since November 2016 (Trump rally). Risk appetite has become so strong that market had lost "fear" entirely, which resulted in decreased volaility. Such a smooth rally will end sonner or later, and volatility of S&P500 has to grow. I'm not saying that stocks will drop straight to hell, price action will become choppier and less smooth.
It will shift volatility higher (VIX). We can't trade VIX directly, but there are some ETFs which allow to do that, for example Ipath VXX.
BIG Move is coming. Lets Prepare...!!!!i am guessiung Big Move is coming. Due to seveal analyize, i think its better to prepare. what i am going to do.
sold all my share
close some of my FX position
keep large potion of cash Prepare for big move.
survivel is key, i would like to enjoy stay in the market in upcoming trend...!
vxx stair stepping downEach drop to support has been smaller each step, last one in half of the previous, so now? lets see if we get a green arrow for a change and support holds, indicating a bottom formation, or not, just like each time before, AKA HOW LOW CAN YOU GO. For that we need an unexpected surprise, could one of the fangs, like apple, earnings disappoint unexpectedly? we will see after the close today.
VXX - Sniper's Scope Trained on the Back of your HeadWhat does it feel like to be a target in the crosshairs of a professional? Absolutely nothing.
When the shot is made, you'll never see it coming.
Likewise, this slow VXX descent into nothingness is unprecedented.
The Confederacy of Dunces, constantly driving the market to new heights, have stood unchastened for far too long without a remembrance of the last top.
I don't claim to know all or perhaps it's just my ignorance on how this product is constructed, but what I do know is that walking into urban battlefields without body armor is a fool's errand.
If you haven't already done so, it's time to hedge.
My advice? Buy body armor.
The VXX September delta 80 Calls can be picked up for about $2.15.
Don't think something could happen to the market 85 days from now? Good for you.
As for me, if my portfolio takes an unexpected shot, I can guarantee it won't be fatal.
I look forward to seeing the survivors back on the field to trade another day.
vxx patternOk, so, the vix is an index, indicator of trade sentiment, not a physical thing. Then, should we consider using the same indicators and judge patterns the same as a stock? Good question. My answer is, sort of. It is like using a particular word, for lack of a better one. RSI is old, it is wise, it is consistent, it can be trusted, sort of. Some say it lags, but there is a truth in it, now. When price is so out of sorts with strength. And divergences abound, and precede price moves or not. For price to really correct, we need SUSTAINED VOLATILITY. Looking, watching for a true double bottom. We almost had one, see chart, but the artificial price inflators took hold yet again, to prop up and pump. Now this time, note the bottom RSI strength, lengthy bullish divergence. This could be the real thing. It could be an unknown news thing, which I have no idea, take your pick, or it could be Friday bank earnings, which since Yellen dovish comments, their outlooks may be sour. Or it just could be that individual investors appear to be rushing money in, finally trusting the market again, and the pros take their money and run. Or the planets may have aligned, again, take your pick, but this correction is so, so overdue, and these pumps, caused mainly by shorters covering, the cycle will finally stop, just when they lessen their percentage of shorts. Like I said, take your pick, while the real pros, with their algos programmed for greed, play everyone else like a fiddle.
VXX - Upward breakout Long from $13.67 to $15.23 & higher VXX seems starting to make a move, and breaking up its key resistance point. We think it has strong upside potential for current label.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- July 6, 2017
Pattern/Why- Fallen angel formation, Breakout trade
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $13.67
Exit Target Criteria- $15.23
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
vxx major weekly pivot has already happenedsee chart, patterns simply reflect human nature, buy and sell patterns, risk tolerance for duration time frames, rates, inflation, balance of trade, fear and greed. Just IMO, nothing more, nothing less.
Short volatility play in VXXWith the spike in volatility and knowing that next week might be a slow one I did a short play on volatility. Sold the 8 days to expiration 14 Call on VXX for $0.68 per contract.
This is a naked trade and it is a high probability trade, but it can be very risky if volatility explodes. If that happens we will have to defend it, but most likely by the end of next week we will be making a nice profit, since volatility usually don't stay high for that long.
Risk Parity - Finance lesson 1 Warning Long Macro Post ahead!
The aim of this post is to open the discussion on risk parity and add insight into why some of the largest macro funds in the world use the strategy of risk parity .
... It is basically an asset allocation concept.
-> At what point do we have our portfolio 100% in these really safe securities (safest of all is inflation protected securities... which are bonds issued by sovereign entity without inflation return) Yields are very small.. sub 1% usually.
-> Then you have normal bonds, these can be any kinds of bonds . They don't have to be treasuries they can be corporate bonds.
-> And then you have mixed portfolio , which is maybe 60% stocks and 40% bonds...
-> Or perhaps a really risky portfolio with 100% stocks
-> Or EVEN riskier with 100% Emerging Market Equities .
+++++ The question is what kind of returns do we expect? +++++
One of the ways people employ Risk Parity is a re-balancing concept;
VXX - Is the time for a rebound in Volatility? I believe the downside is limited for short term and that a rebound is due. Will see how it goes in the next couple of days.
This is not a trading suggestion, is just what i think about this instrument is short term.
Regards
Getting long volatility with VXXAt some point volatility has to come up.... So I bought the 14/15 Call debit spread and financed it with the 13 Put
The trade:
VXX superbull
Buy the 14 Call
Sell the 15 Call
Sell the 13 Put
64% probability of profit
Break even at 12.95
short Call on VXXsince the shakeout was based on a shorthanded political event, we can speculate on a return to the mean of the VXX down curve
due to the medium volatility in VIX, we can move the short Call to 20 (approx. Delta 15)
if VXX should rise, we would buy back the option and sell it again at 25 or 30 to collect the lost premium
$VXX buy hereVXX is going to bounce here.. there's a chance of bouncing almost 100% on the upside. All the stars lined up..
VXX the rsi strength risingThe price v RSI is obviously not in sync. RSI rising huge, and has been, and price just cannot move, but wound up like a spring. This Comey firing could be the beginning of a black swan May - sell in May - event, distractions in the govt, and ripple effects to getting anything positive done, dems and rep fighting again. Bogged down in ideaology, and not getting any practical things done. No tax reform, no health care, gridlock again? Whatever was being priced in the markets will be sucked out, and the June FED rates things is now confused, markets becoming reactive, without earnings to offset the focus.
if ur not long ur wrong. Downside extremely limited on $VXX VIX as $ES_F/ $SPY are set to dump.
You' be crazy to short down here. Good luck.
vxxjust could not pass up this opportunity. No telling what news and rumors come over the next few days or week. These rsi levels are attractive. "sell in May" may apply this year after all, and all those shorts that have covered time and time again, spurring this rally of rallies, just might have their day finally.
