DJP trade ideas
VXX - VXX and 20MA!This is the most profitable trade of the year!
Anytime it hits 20MA, you could have safely short it!
VXX - VXX and 20MA!In almost every instance that VXX closed above 20 MA, market sold off and VXX had ~20% gain.
Success probability of the trade is really high.
Having said that, today's market price action was not in favor of this trade!
VXX ready to head north?In my best possible scenario-- average buy price for smart money +33=35.5 -safe range
-- nearly 15 days consolidation since 9/22, and the chart still on support
seems like this is a story planned ahead of time
VXX - They are trying to save the market!Market is weak, damaged and ready to get whacked in a big way!
DB is in trouble and they are throwing anything to stop the crash before election day!
Watch close above $36 on VXX for nice trade!
VXX - Short at neck line!No matter what FED does, VIX get hammered after FED minutes!
VXX is closing below 20MA on daily and turn weak!
VXX - Ready to POP!VXX has closed above 20MA!
In the past, it shows a volatile period for the market!
Re-test of 20MA is long entry on this!
VXX breakout from curving downtrendIn July 2015 VXX broke out of a curving downtrend for a great return in about a week.
Now this past week it is continuing to replicate the same pattern held in 2015.
My thoughts are that it will drop to $12.80 and then spike to a possible $26.00 if it follows the downtrend drawn.
vxx seriously?? Amazing the power of politics and greed, over common sense. The only thing about common sense is it is not so common. To destroy an economic system because of it, a tragedy. So perma bulls might as well make money if it is going to happen anyway, right? If you trade, is there a moral obligation to society in general to pay attention to, or not? We, they, are so far beyond where they thought they would have to go to try to ease the pain of 2008. Traditional, historic, tried and true solutions don't work once you have abandoned the model. They keep adding more and more to the kiddy with the same tricks that they know are NOT WORKING. Kicking the mother of all cans down the road that dead ends, and I see the end of the pavement now. Only dirt roads beyond. The ONLY SOLUTION(s) will be found in the new model, now being formed. IMO, the 1% are just holding this thing together, making sure of no large drops in the market because they really have no choice, with toothpicks and straw, until Hillary and Bill are in. OM gosh, what if Trump actually wins? Media loves it because they can sell more ads while people watch this reality tv show. The new system is coming, and soon, because it has to, we will have no choice. What a way to justify the change of the millenium. Buying this dip soon, but when? If there is a vxx left to buy then.
VXX - Another try to close above 20MA!VXX tried several times this year to close above 20MA and failed every time except "1" time.
Short target is "$30.20" which is ~20% lower.
This kind of bullish divergnce should work....get ready!If this multi time frame divergence will not work, then I seriously don't know what could :-)
Get ready to buy more volatility! Watch 4H price / Kijun relation together with EWO!
Key level is 37,15!
You can find my yesterday post about VIX Index on Twitter too.
VXX should open upThe VIX futures had a strong move up after the market closed. the VIX rtfs/etns should open higher. The high volumes also correlate with improving RSI. It is not clear whether the SPX500 will keep falling with increasing volatility going forward. tntsunrise shows a possible rise in the SPX500 to a shorting zone, then a further fall. VXX may be traded in the short zone if that happens. A starting VXX position may be taken here with a stop loss. Check the VIXM chart for a daily RSI approaching 50 in an uptrend per my prior post. Big rises in VIXM requires several days of SPX500 crashing. Note the VIX rtfs/etns usually decline except when the SPX500 is crashing/falling. They are not truly coupled to the VIX but are like fiat currencies.
SPY down underway Pattern, PA & Cycle - half risk sizeExpecting Medium to Major dive for cycle, broadening wedge & unusual volume drop.
Long in VXZThe VIX (red line) is near 52 its week lows. I went long on VIXM on 7/21/2016. After further research I found that VXZ has higher volumes (more liquidity). VXZ and VIXM do not decay as fast as the leveraged ETFs/ETNs. They also react more slowly, peak more slowly, and fall more slowly then the VIX and the short term ETFs/ETNs. Looking further back in time, shows that shows that VXZ and VIXM gradually decay over time. I do not understand the cause of this as they are not rebalanced. Perhaps there is a gradual loss of faith in them as a FIAT marker for the VIX (anyone who knows the correct reason, please comment/enlighten). Going long at 52 week lows may reduce the risk of medium term holds on this long position. This is a also a good black swan position. I am considering adding more long positions via VXZ.
Bearish, with divergences. May get some pull back (vol. pickup)Weekly:
Simply bearish. Anyway, it is the nature of the long volatility Fund. Those who hold it jave to pay the money managers' fee and more importantly the continous roll down caused by VIX futures contango.
Weekly chart can go bullish only if we once ever have a krach in SP500... but as we know that is absolutely impossible with new type of central banking ;-) :-D
Daily:
- Ichimoku is bearish, but price moved quite far away from its equilibrium level (currently marked by Kijun and Senkou B at 14,75)
- Heikin-Ashi has important message! haDelta/SMA3 has built quite remarkable bullish divergence! It is still below zero line, but ticking higher, while price still made lower low. Probably the bearish price action in last few days happene on low volume, which means Bears are not so keen on selling heavily at these levels.
Candle last friday had small inside body and both upper and lower wicks!
- Bearish supp at 12,80 (Tenkan) and 14,70 (Kijun+Kumo)
4H:
- Ichimoku is bearish, but just like on the daily, Price is toofar below equilibrium levels.
- Heikin-Ashi signals indecision / consolidation. haDelta/SMA3 back to zero, has built positive divergence.
I think volatility has chance to pick up a bit. We can do small bottom fishing here, but don't expect huge rally in VXX. In case your own system confirms, you can go long with maximum 0,5 unit.
Update on VXXVXX reached previous bottom. If it holds, then we'll have chance for a double bottom.
Still watching. Candle close will be important.
p.s.: I do really tiny bottom fishing here. Equity indexes ($ES and $NQ) also reached important resistances.
Hey Vol. sellers, can you make a lower low? If not...For now all bullish forces are in play to push volatility and VXX lower. I know it looks bearish now on both time frames, but let me make few notes.
- Daily Kijun and Senkou B are flat, making an equilibrium around 15,21. No real bearish trend continuation until these longer averages do not point down again.
- Tenkan is still slightly above Kijun, both lines are in the Kumo cloud
- EWO is bearish, but it has been building a positive divergence since April! This triggered nice spikes twice already.
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish now.
The questions:
Can price make a lower low on close?
Can haDelta reach or dip below its lower range of -1,65?
Can forward Kumo cross bearish?
For earlier answers given by price action, we'll also have to keep an eye on 4H time frame.
I'll try to post any relevant changes, and also if I see a better risk/reward setup to enter long.
