DJP trade ideas
VXX daily - watch the blue resistance - 6/24/2016It closes the day above 50 DMA and right under the blue resistance. A breakout can quickly send it to $26 area.
I know market decided UK will stay. But what if they don't? Seriously I do not understand how markets can be so much sure about these polls, and pricing out even the smallest chance that finally Brexit happens. Again, I don't say it happens for sure, but I don't think it is a wise thing to smash volatility down 2 days before the vote!
Daily:
- Price back tbelow Kijun. (Tenkan and Kijun stay together) but haDelta and candle shows selling started to lose momentum
- Lower key is 14, upper key is 16 and 16,85
4H:
- Price dipped back to neutral Kumo, while Tenkan/Kijun and forward Kumo is still bullish.
- Heikin-Ashi signals loss of bearish moentum short term. haDelta hit extreme low yesterday.
- I suggest small buy here, and more if price moves back above Kijun -> 15,00+ / Stop loss 13,95
Markets are underestimating risk! They may be right, maybe nothing bad will happen, but it is a gambling this way. I rather buy some protection.
VXX - Love Affair between VXX and 21 DMA!Every time VXX closed above 21 DMA, market turmoil hits up!
This time couple of strange things are happening as well:
1. US Market just pulled back 2% and VIX fired up 80%!
2. VIX is at ~$21 and S&P500 at ~$2080 ( VIX is too hot)!
3. Volume is not too high!
4. US has decoupled from rest of the world while they are down 20% From All time High, US is down just 3%!
*** Conclusion, I believe the big boys know more (actually earlier) if something really bad may happen. It would be wise to protect your portfolio or sit on the sideline.****
BTW, I am wondering how high VIX would go if S&P500 breaks that $2040 level to the downside!
VXX - Remember the GREXIT last year. Buy some protection!If BREXIT wins, we will get into a bumpy market!
Yet, market sellers don't have the momentum and I am not convinced to be fully bearish!!!
VXX - FED got a huge BAT when it comes to VOL!I have adjusted my VXX target from 15 min chart to Daily chart!
And have stop loss at $13.20 to secure some profit in case market goes haywire !!!
VIX - FED is slamming the VOL!FED is supporting the market. Short VXX; beside FED, contago is killing it!
No fear at all. Not yet. Key reversal zone lower.Not much to comment here. Market is Uber bullish, there's no fear at all... at least in US equities.
Very strange, that 3-4 weeks before Brexit vote, FX priced in quite remarkable risk premium through short term options implied volatility, while the stock markets (in general) completely ignore any risks, at least for now.
Which market is pricing correctly? FX or Equities? Or maybe FX is overpricing risks, while Equity markets clearly undervalue it? I don't have the clear answer, but I can answer your question when to buy VXX (SP500 short term volatility).
1. You can try small bottom fishing with tiny longs, IF you see some form of Heikin-Ashi reversal on daily
2. You have to buy larger size, IF price breaks through the key bearish support zone, which is now the 14,90-15,40 range.
Regarding SP500 and VXX, I actually see more bearish risk factors:
- Brexit
- China
- OPEC meeting with disappointment and WTI selloff
- FED hawkish tone -> rates ticking higher -> USD stronger -> more liquidity tightening
- Decreasing trend in Corporate earnings + profit warnings
- US election
In my childhood I was told "It is better to fear (too early), than to get (suddenly) scared!"
Keep your eyes open!
volatility etf with yeller speak ecb and payroll this week short term move possible to bottom of the cloud daily/rate hike in june or july not built in/europe and payroll next week /volatilyioversold/look for volatility to come on/enter on one candle your time above close/use a tight stop/this etf moves quickly with vix/diversify and use small position/yellen words not heard well because of long holiday fomc on the 15th/dollar moved up
ROLLING JUNE 17TH, JUNE 24TH VXX PWCC SHORT CALLS OUT ... .These short calls are both parts of poor man's covered calls (PWCC's) in VXX, the long-dated long calls of which are in the September expiry ... .
The June 17th 18 call had lost over 65% of its value, so I opted to roll it here to the July 8th 15.5 short call (as close to the 75% probability out-of-the-money strike as I could get) for an additional $68/contact in credit.
Similarly, the June 24th 18 call had also lost over 60% of its value, so I rolled it to the July 15th 16 short call for an additional $56/contract in credit.
Although it's great to be collecting credit along the way, as with any covered call -- poor man's or otherwise -- you will need price to increase above your cost basis to bail on the trade profitably ... . At the moment, I'm looking to exit the current setups for what I originally paid for them, essentially keeping the credit collected as my profit. However, as we near that September expiration (it's still a bit of ways away), I may have to look at what my scratch point is for each and possibly settle for less if we don't see a pop soon here ... .
VXX - Short with both hand!FED is in control, at the moment, so VOL will just make bear indices like VXX to bleed!
(S&P Down) VXX long opportunity comingVXX flat out price, escalating volume, RSI divergence, all suggesting S&P dive near.
VXX - Short the vol on any pop!VXX formed a bear flag.
Breaking down would give a good shorting opportunity!
When to buy VXX? Key rev. level is 16,10Trading the most popular VIX based ETF is as tricky as trading VIX Index, or the volatility curve itself.
If you are wrong on timing, the curve contango (roll down, negative cost of carry) kills your long position very quickly.
But if you catch it at the right time, your gains will be extremely nice and quick.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is still bearish, but Kijun Sen came lower to 16,10. Buyers have to watch this first key level.
- Heikin-Ashi gives mixed signals, but there is some positive divergence in haDelta/SMA3
- EWO is bearish, but here a positive divergence has been building too. Maybe it reflects a slow bottom building in VXX.
4H:
- Ichimoku setup is still bearish. Key reversal level is marked by Senkou B and 100WMA: 16,10+
- In terms of price action we have one important thing: Price could not make a lower low. It worths to watch, as the flattening and thinner forward Kumo may also suggest we see some form of bottom building here.
- EWO is bearish, but again, we have a positive divergence.
Strategy: You can try to do bottom fishing in 14,60-15,00 zone, but the good risk/reward trade will be if you buy the 16,10 breakout, as by then the setups will reverse towards bullish, and your chances to make money on volatility surge will be better.
Basically you have to watch for following bullish signals on 4H: Price/Kijun cross, Tenkan/Kijun cross (weak or medium), Price/Kumo (and 100WMA) cross, Chikou/Past candle cross. They will follow each other in this sequence :-)
ROLLING VXX JUNE 10TH 17.5 SHORT CALL TO JULY 1ST 17 SHORT CALLThis is part of a poor man's covered call setup in VXX, the back month of which is a September VXX 12 long call.
I'm being somewhat mechanical here in rolling the 17.5 short call to the July 1st 75% probability out-of-the-money short call. I say "somewhat mechanical" because the usual thing to do is to wait until the short call is near expiration and then roll it out for another 30 days (assuming you haven't yet taken the whole setup off in profit before then).
The notion here is to have my three VXX poor man's covered calls kind of straddle Brexit/FOMC, which is when I think the best chances for a volatility pop will occur.
In any event, picked up an additional $56 credit for the roll, further reducing my cost basis in the long. Given the credits I've received so far for the rolls, I'll look to take the entire setup off for what I paid for it ($418/contract). The credits collected for the rolls will be my profit for the setup.
$VXX double bttom on MACD, MFI, and Priceappears to be a double bottom on the Money Flow Index, share price and the macd. Hoping for a bullish crossover on the macd
Amadeo Ratio 5/13/2016This ratio has a very hard time trying to go up. It seems that it's eventually going to test the purple line. What happened last week or two look like a dead cat bounce.
VXX - Low volume market will crush the VIX!VXX may be good short if S&P 500 sells off into $2000 level.
Volume usually drops from end of May to end of July and that crushes the VIX.
