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DJP trade ideas

VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 1 Apr Expiry (Apr Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I purposely ended my March trades last week because I felt this week would be super volatile given the Fed announcements on interest rates. This play turned out well as I got to write VXX calls that end 1 Apr at an amazing price On the 15 March, I noticed that the VXX had stopped correlating with the market and I believe this had to do Barclay suspending new share creations of their VIX Short Term futures ETN (VXX). In a statement, the bank said it ran out of issuance capacity for the two products and would halt new creations indefinitely. It claimed the halts were not a result of the war in Ukraine This divergence, allowed me to quickly write VXX Call options that expires 1 April at $3 a contract. I decided to use a smaller Margin (50k) because it is still a VUCA global situation and I wanted to have room to maneuver. I have also never seen the VXX diverge so drastically before. I also believed that the Fed’s announcement would already be factored in to the past weeks and current volatility I Feel Pretty damn good, the VXX as aligned back to the market and right now the market is pretty bullish. Lengthen my distance to strike. Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side This trade is very opportunistic in timing and volatility. There is no way I would take the other side given the price movement. Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer The risk of this was the unknown of why the VXX was diverging from it’s original intention and what the implications where. Look For New Information I did a search to understand what was going on with the VXX, but I decided that it was better to look and based my decision on the current sentiment of the market. How Do I Feel Now I am very very happy with this play as it mitigated risk by having a shorter time frame, high contract price and also leveraged my understanding and tracking of the market’s key events. Trade Specs Sold 60 Calls @ 3.00 - Strike 58 % to Strike 41% ATR 98% BP used 51k Max Gain: 18k
AMEX:VXXShort
by Ronin_trader
Most Overlooked Opportunity of 2022 - VXXHi Everyone, Excited to share some good news for our fellow options traders! -One of the market's most popular instruments, $VXX, recently underwent an anomaly of an event that hasn't occurred in over 10 years in the volatility-trading space. On March 14, 2022, Barclays announced a suspension of share sales and issuances on the iPath® Series B S&P 500® VIX Short-Term FuturesTM ETNs (BATS: $VXX). -Generally speaking, the $VXX is built to track the first- and second-month VX futures on a rolling basis. Barclays, the issuer of $VXX, doesn't actually hold underlying futures contracts to maintain the ETN, rather, it tracks the performance of the underlying futures contracts on a rolling basis. The product that the ETN tracks is known as the net asset value (NAV) or "indicative value" of the underlying ETN. Issuers use NAVs as a metric to match their ETN prices to their NAV. Essentially, in order for Barclays to maintain the publicly traded product, they match long and short order flow on their ETNs. For example, if a trader wanted to buy 1,000,000 VXX ETNs in one transaction block, Barclays will usually issue 1,000,000 shares of VXX to keep the price of the ETNs the same. On traditional shares of stock, however, 1,000,000 shares of stock in one transaction block could change the stock price due to an increase in demand and a shortage of supply. Equities, unlike ETNs, do not issue shares of stock for order flow to keep the price of the security at its NAV. Whereas, ETNs generally issue notes to keep the ETN price at its NAV. -Considering that Barclays is no longer issuing shares for their $VXX ETNs, long order flows will not result in the issuance of new shares. So, what does this mean? Let's say you purchase 1,000,000 shares of stock, similar to the equity example made in the last paragraph. The purchased shares are no longer issued by Barclays to keep the price of the ETNs at their NAV. Rather, the existing market participants must sell their 1,000,000 shares of stock to you. Due to the increase in demand, the price of the ETNs will increase past their NAV.
AMEX:VXXLong
by caldooninvestment
7
Why VXX exploded and what it means for volatility (VIX)One of the big market events today is the explosion in price of AMEX:VXX which according to the issuer Barclays has nothing to do with Ukraine or market events. I think it is tangentially related in some way to the market conditions but what does this actually mean for the near future of volatility? I look at TVC:VIX as a measure of the "fear index" of the S&P500. The VIX can be very useful in timing market tops and bottoms as it represents maximums of emotion. The VIX is telling us something about the current lows of the market and how the recent correction might soon be over.
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AMEX:VXXShort
by norok
28
CAUTION: VXX Is Broken!The pricing of the VIX futures tracking ETN VXX no longer reflects reality. Barclays has halted new issuance of both the VXX and OIL ETNs. Existing shares of VXX are being bid up far beyond the movement in the underlying futures market. As I mentioned in a previous post, (linked below), I believe the VIX is setting up for a breakout to the upside. I strongly caution against trying to trade VXX right now. For one, trading has been halted repeatedly, which may happen again, and you NEVER want to get stuck in a position that you can't trade out of. For another, VXX pricing is no longer tracking the VIX futures, so it's impossible to predict how VXX will respond to a significant move in the VIX futures. When the price action in a market is irrational, technical levels become irrelevant, fundamentals become irrelevant, and you can't expect logical price movements from the market. For example: See the recent price action in crude oil futures (CL1!). One of the most valuable skills in trading is recognizing when not to trade. VXX right now is like a crate of 100 year old dynamite sweating nitroglycerine in the desert heat. DON'T TOUCH IT! Stay safe out there traders!
AMEX:VXX
by iamroot
1
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 11 Mar Expiry (Mar Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I entered this position as I believe that we are currently in a sideways bearish situation. The markets took huge dips since late Nov to Jan and while it has recovered some of that loss. The S&P and especially the NASDAQ show that at least for now, the constant bold bullish days are narrowing Even though I am taking a sideways bearish stance. I still sold calls as we have just gotten out from a terrible 3 months of nose bleed drops and I think there will be some respite where market participants will try to determine what is the next direction Writing calls also allow me to develop a hedge on the other trades which will be bearish I Feel I entered this trade on Monday and it feels almost clinical as it was already part of my plan and the indexes were aligned I would have liked to get a better price to weather some potential volatility but it is a decent price at 0.71 I would have also preferred to have this trade expire on the 4th March way before the mid March inflation implementations Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side I would be slightly worried as the market in the past 2 days have been bullish. Also I did try to initially take a sold PUT trade, but the prices for them and the % from strike were not optimal. I guess the market expects more bullishness? Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer VXX eats alot of margin fast as it is also a reflection of the tech stocks. And that could limit the fund’s movements. Regardless of direction I think with a good 63% of space between the entry and strike is prudent Look For New Information I am accepting that if the market does furiously dip too fast and too hard. I might be in a difficult position. The good news is that the major Tech earnings are over. How Do I Feel Now I neither feel happy or worried. Just somewhat clear but edgy given what we have just gone through in Nov - Jan Trade Specs Sold 125 Calls @ 0.71 - Strike 33 % to Strike 63% ATR 64% BP used is 91k Max Gain: 8875
AMEX:VXX
by Ronin_trader
4
VXX Strangle Spread ManagementStarted with monthly VXX Strangle 2 strikes wide. As volatility kicked in, sold off the profitable trade (a put) and then used the rest of the time to allow the bearish sentiment to kick in. the problem was a lot of times the option would be reach ITM (In-The-Money), but I would hedge by tightening up the strangle by adding another put once the direction changed. Recently volatility has slightly tamed compared to when Russia initially attacked Ukraine. Using support and resistance levels including price-action to confirm entry and exit points. Using MACD, Stochastics and RSI to guage the sentiment whether it's bearish or bullish. Tightening the Strangle Once the trend reverses, I purchase the other side of the Strangle once the Put-Call ratio is favorable and there are discounts in the options prices (Black-Scholes Model). In February there was very high volatility which led to better chances for profitability. Technical Analysis Always wait for engulfing candles with a confirmation candle or two to spot a trend reversal. Verify this reversal with resistance levels and breakouts in the RSI. Stochastics can be used to view the short-term sentiment. Update - 03-03-2022 Volatility has slowed down so much more patience is needed for the options to go in-the-money. Due to this uncertain investment and political climate, there could be chances for volatility to spike again. Either way, using a Strangle, we just want a strong move either to the upside or downside. General trend for the past 3 days is a bearish trend with no breakouts yet. Tighten the Strangle once direction changes and options prices get cheap. Lessons Learned Sometimes you have to wait for the trade to move in your favor. It's always better to purchase discounted options. Tighten the strangle when it is cheaper to do so and the trend is moving in its favor. Delta and Gamma combined help shape the rewards better than the Put-Call ratio only. Wait for the technicals in the chart to trigger entry points. Always get options with more time than you think you need. Sometimes it takes more time than predicted to minimize losses and be profitable in the long-run.
AMEX:VXXEducation
by ashpat86
Increase in VOLATILITY on the horizon? It's 1120am MST on 2/28, and I am expecting a further market decline. I already have a VXX call option in play right now and am expecting this position will end up in the money. It seems Russia/Ukraine war is starting to heat up despite the meeting between the two countries today. From a technical analysis perspective, there is another inverse head and shoulders forming and the 50 SMA is crossing over both the 100MA and 200MA, which seems to be a bullish indicator for VXX and a bearish indicator for the stock market as a whole. I hope I am wrong on this one...because that would indicate a de-escalation of the war...which we're all praying for.
AMEX:VXXLong
by WealthHunters
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 11 Feb Expiry (Feb Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought Market seems to be ranging with deeper drops. This VXX trade is positioned as a hedge as it takes a bullish market stance. I like this structure of having a broad market hedge and especially a position that expires early in the month. As I would still have a solid feel of the previous month’s sentiment. VXX seems like a good trade for early month as the BP drops drastically as it gets closer to expiry. If price goes against you, the expiring previous month’s trade will release BP to support it. VXX contracts sometimes also have good premium as it spikes more during volatility events For Feb’s VXX entry I will wait until 12 Jan after Jerome Powell’s speech. As that could spike the premiums and provide more visibility on the market direction. I Feel I feel confident on the trade and especially how it fits into the entire trade structure. Taking advantage of the entry and exit timings and the nature of VXX and it’s BP behaviour (It reduces drastically in size, closer to expiry). Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side VXX is also good as it is a market wide counter. Only worry is that it is exposed to the volatility of tech The Omicron news on the 26 Nov drove the price up by 47% to $30, while it did fall after 6 days. The recency and the potential for VXX to increase in a Black Swan event is also a potential and the BP requirements to maintain would be extremely large Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer I don’t expect another super volatile Black Swan event happening in the next month. Especially since knowledge on Omicron and the Fed’s inflation mitigation actions are clearer. But the market movements from Omicron in Dec really scared me and I need to see how I can better shield myself Price is steady downtrending Look For New Information While Omicron has mild symptoms, the high infection rates are hitting businesses even harder because there is a direct impact on labour which are the legs for most businesses. I wondering how this will impact Q1 earnings How Do I Feel Now I feel confident and worry free Trade Specs Sold 123 Calls @ 0.63 - Strike 29 % to Strike 62% ATR % is 67% BP used is 89k Max Gain: 7749
AMEX:VXX
by Ronin_trader
HEDGE your BTC and ETH positions... VXX is about to MOON?!!!In my opinion, buying a VXX weekly call option is an amazing way to hedge your crypto portfolio against the market volatility resulting from geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns. Unless you live under a rock, you've reeceived incessant push notifications regarding the Russia/Ukraine geopolitical conflict and the inflation-driven macroeconomic concerns. Smart money has already reallocated a sizable percentage of portfolio into stablecoins or cash... But why not CAPTURE ALPHA available from the current market volatility? Inverse head-and-shoulders patterns are used by some traders to call a downtrend reversal. It's not always a reliable indicator. However, it's my belief this indicator is MORE reliable on the with VXX chart- which is perpetually in a long-term downtrend. Look closely at the VXX chart, and you'll see TWO inverse head and shoulders patterns: 1. One forming locally over the past couple weeks 2. One that started forming at the end of January I bought a weekly call option expiring on 2/25 with a strike price of 24. With a target of around 26.50, I'd be shocked if I didn't close this position, or have it expire, IN THE MONEY. Do YOU AGREE or DISAGREE? Let me know in the comments!
AMEX:VXXLong
by WealthHunters
1
Long UVXY and VXX Trading Strategy IdeaThis is for going long UVXY or VXX. I am fine-tuning on systematic approach to trading long volatility. I have back tested the rules below with great results! Please comment and share your thoughts. I traded this several times recently and have done well with it. It is fade-it or half-life approach; decaying position or reverse pyramid, since the underlying is decaying. Take a look at the chart; arrows indicate recent entries AMEX:UVXY . CHART SETUP 195 minute bar chart (split the day into two bars) RSI set to 2 periods MACD - set to 2, 6, 1. (essentially a Moving average cross over) Stochastics Full. 13,3,3 EMA 5 and 8 day EMA. Bollinger bands -standard settings. TTM Squeeze BUY RULES Buy Full position when: - MACD crosses from red to green - above zero line AND - bar close is higher than previous bar AND - Stochastics are trending higher AND - RSI(2) has crossed or is greater than 70 AND - VXX/UVXY price is below the upper bollinger band AND - VXX/UVXY is above the 5 period EMA SELL RULES - 4.1% stop upon entry - sell entire position of MACD 2,6,1 closes red on the day. - sell 50% position on first bar/price trading above the upper bollinger bands - sell 25% of position on second bar/price trading above the upper bollinger bands - sell remaining 25% position upon hard MACD sell signal or discretionary. REPEAT: - repeat and refill full position. For example, if you are down to final 25% position and VXX/UVXY crosses from below to above 5 EMA AND MACD is still green AND price is below upper bollinger band, AND bar close is higher than previous bar close, buy back to full position. Repeat sell rules. Notes: - if you miss a sell signal, sell the bar. for example, VXX traded above the upper BB briefly then below, sell the respective portion of the position. - you may see several trades back to back in high market volatility - I use the TTM Squeeze indicator for direction; histogram trending up? is it green? - This system entry matches up with Heiken Ashi charts buy signals if these are your thing. - the compounding of this strategy works well with 100% re-investment on each trade. - long volatility trades are quick and fade fast. occasionally you will see an extended high volatility; this is the reason the for the 25% last part of the position. (I owned TVIX in Feb 2020 and sold it all once it hit +100%, it went up 11x) - I back tested this to 2016; the results were amazing. in 2021 you had 30 trades, 23 winners, a trade expectancy of 9%, and with 100% re-investment upon every trade, a 783% return if I am doing the math correctly. (rough results below) - other years had better results (2018) but still validating. (2018 returns look ridiculous) - I set buy stops above trading prices at where my signals would be met to automate the entry. - you need some real fortitude as you may take several losses in a row. -4.1, -4.1, -4.1 Again, share your thoughts and comments 2021 UVXY Trades. (Rough backtesting results) starting with 100k hypothetical) Trade Returns trade profit/loss running percentage Running total of capital 6.52% 6,520.00 6.52% $106,520.00 15.56% 16,574.51 23.09% $123,094.51 16.06% 19,768.98 42.86% $142,863.49 -4.10% -5,857.40 37.01% $137,006.09 12.82% 17,564.18 54.57% $154,570.27 14.33% 22,149.92 76.72% $176,720.19 4.00% 7,068.81 83.79% $183,788.99 -2.88% -5,293.12 78.50% $178,495.87 3.66% 6,532.95 85.03% $185,028.82 2.80% 5,180.81 90.21% $190,209.63 -4.10% -7,798.59 82.41% $182,411.03 16.76% 30,572.09 112.98% $212,983.12 -4.10% -8,732.31 104.25% $204,250.81 3.66% 7,475.58 111.73% $211,726.39 12.02% 25,449.51 137.18% $237,175.91 10.66% 25,282.95 162.46% $262,458.86 22.19% 58,239.62 220.70% $320,698.48 17.91% 57,437.10 278.14% $378,135.58 -1.05% -3,970.42 274.17% $374,165.15 6.14% 22,973.74 297.14% $397,138.89 -4.10% -16,282.69 280.86% $380,856.20 22.23% 84,664.33 365.52% $465,520.53 6.22% 28,955.38 394.48% $494,475.91 6.73% 33,278.23 427.75% $527,754.14 8.80% 46,442.36 465.40% $574,196.50 11.67% 67,008.73 519.71% $641,205.23 11.23% 72,007.35 578.07% $713,212.58 10.69% 76,242.42 639.87% $789,455.00 -4.10% -32,367.66 613.63% $757,087.35 16.14% 122,193.90 712.67% $879,281.25
AMEX:VXXLong
by UnderwearMillionaire
VXX - into a trendline resistanceNotice how technical setup precedes any news? VXX pulled back into the trendline resistance yesterday with negative divergence on the 30Min TF. Next couple of days will be important to decide if we go way down or way up. Either is fine by me, but patience is needed to see the picture clearly before going too deep. Plan today: reduce size of the shorts or cut losses. Watch hourly price action around 23...if it pushes lower, start small on the longer dates SPY, QQQ calls. Risk: Daily charts for many charts are still showing bearflag signs...if there is no follow through, this would just be another dead cat bounce. need ES! to consolidate above 4450 for the chance at 4500, 4580.
AMEX:VXX
by CheelooTrader
VXX (VIX ETF) hints of increasing volatilityThe VXX is the VIX ETF and tracking it gives an idea of the VIX from a unique perspective. In the weekly chart, for most of 2021, there was a building MACD bullish divergence. Given the higher low and the rather full bullish candle on Friday, any continuation of this rally aligns price to the indicator. Inadvertently, the would be downside volatility in the equity markets to follow... The VIX, via the VXX ETF, is suggesting a plausible spike in volatility in the coming weeks.
AMEX:VXX
by Auguraltrader
1
Bounce on .5 Fibonacci ExtensionThe SPX & VXX both bounced from the .5 Fibonacci extension and retractement on daily time frames. Monday will be interesting with the Ukraine situations + Emergency FED Meeting results. I can see it going both ways unfortunately but the trend says we find a lower low. My gut tells me a no deal no info meeting through the weekend on Ukraine, and more accommodations from the fed because of Ukraine. These conditions could send the vix higher in the short term, we could finally see the sell off breadth we’ve been waiting for to call the bottom. Engulfments everywhere on the weekly’s charts look terrible. And the setup looks bullish to me on the VXX.
AMEX:VXX
by backupthetruck9000