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DJP trade ideas

VXX: Expecting a potential major moveHistory has a tendency to show us patterns which can make trading much simpler if you know what to look for. As I've said before, we finished a wave 5 of 5 from the bottom of 2009 which to me tells me we are about to head into the biggest recession of my lifetime. Now, I don't pretend to be a fortune teller or foresee the future, but I do tend to rely on the past to better predict the future of the markets. So based on all of this, I have found a pattern in VXX that I found interesting. As the chart shows, during the course of the last 5 years, VXX has made some interesting patterns which shows that around the same point in Fib retracements during the most volatile times since 2017, right before those events VXX sat around the same junction just above the 2.618 Fib retracement level. If this pattern were, to say, repeat itself again, you're looking at VXX returning to the point where the first peak of the downward move began or beyond which would place the VXX at $183. Now I'm sure some of you are looking at this and saying I'm crazy and maybe I am, however, I like patterns and fibs and if there are two things that have proven to be true in the markets its patterns and fibs. Not financial advice
AMEX:VXXLong
by FiboTrader1
4
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 7 Jan Expiry (Jan Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I entered the trade because the volatility was high and the premium was good. But because of this I did not do the Mindfulness exercise before entering and broke my rule. This being a Call was a more bullish take on a market that at the moment felt like it was bearish ranging. However I entered because the Strike was 60.34% away and had good premium. Also the 3 Dec showed a solid rejection from the S/R line at 28.5. I expect the situation to stabilise or slow down after both Omicron and Fed Interest rate situations I Feel I’m doing this after the fact. So looking at the recent market drop on the 20 Dec I feel less confident. But I am comforted that this trade will end fairly quickly on the 7 Jan. Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side All of my other trades for the month of Jan will be bearish. And as such I do feel somewhat anxious. Which is not right. Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer I rushed this and I am not confident Look For New Information Omicron infections are rising at an exponential speed and this will result in knee jerk reactions. But this might already be priced in. How Do I Feel Now Hoping for the best and I don’t like it. I must not do this rash trading again. No matter how good the premium looks Trade Specs Sold 90 Calls @ 0.81 - Strike 35 % to Strike 60.34% ATR % is 100% BP used 78k Max Gain: est $7290
AMEX:VXXShort
by Ronin_trader
1
VXX - Arb Low into New ATL'sNot ready for Prime Time, but then with Lower Objectives below and Daily Lows day after day with lower Yearly Lows... It is beginning to look as if the VFX could trade into the 15s at this rate - currently 19.05. Volatility continues to be beaten with the Ugly Stick. ___________________________________________________________ There has not been a Retacement exceeding the .382 in 10 days with 1 and only 1 exception. A new streak for the VX complex. The Fed's mercurial puncture wounds continue to press and with CASH @ 17.15 and 15's in sight, one wonders how off base this will trade given the enormous Risk profile Globally.
AMEX:VXX
by HK_L61
5
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 26 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought Market Bullish Stance The overall market seems to be back on it's bull run. This is reflected on the SPY and NDX who have both made new highs Sep Consumer Spending has lost momentum but still grew at 1.4% Sep Personal income was up 0.9% These factors, including the upcoming festive year end period. With less COVID19 restrictions should result in an increase in consumer spending with an appitite to accept raising prices (At least for this quarter) Est price to strike is around 54% which is a pretty good buffer and is around it's previous high. This is shielded by an S&R line at 28.5 I Feel Confident and safe I'm happy with the risk profile and it is also 50% hedging my RVLV trade Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side We could be at the bottom and a retracement is a possibility at least short term We expected Nov's market to be bearish volatile so this bullishness might be short term Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer Strike to price distance seems safe If we read the market for what it is now. It is bullish While some volatility might come as we close Dec due to the US debt ceiling Look For New Information US debt ceiling implications and the upcoming review date on the 3 Dec will cause some market volatility. For now while the country has a short reprieve from the threat of default, Yellen said some investments in funds through December 3 will remain suspended How Do I Feel Now Ready to enter! Trade Specs Sold 70 Calls @ 0.40 - Strike 30 % to Strike 46% ATR % is Around 12% BP used 65k Max Gain: est $2800
AMEX:VXXShort
by Ronin_trader
VXX - Interesting VX ParticipationNothing to see here and that may well be the indication. Implied Volatility is unhinged: FEB 18 2022 CALL 17.00 - 75.59% 18.00 - 84.90% 19.00 - 92.54% 20.00 - 99.91% 21.00 - 107.26% 22.00 - 112.79% 23.00 - 117.91% 24.00 - 123.21% 25.00 - 128.10% 26.00 - 131.70% 27.00 - 135.50% ______________________________________________________ Clearly, the VXX believes the market has outsized potential for large price swing. With the Prems High, the underlying will be the better Position. Gap Below, Gaps Above for VXX.
AMEX:VXX
by HK_L61
2
VXX - New LowsVX Complex wrecked again will provide an opportunity for RT. Too early in the VX Cycle to Bid here without further Downside Risk. If it can sustain the Lows and Hold, we begin to see a VX Curve Flatten. ________________________________________________________________ Gamma Squeeze failures are keeping the protection Bid muted. While profit-taking remains the sell in 7/11. Hopefully, they let the foot off the gas there as a squeeze would be welcome. BUying low ticks in NQ and NYSE has been the way to trade it as the ALGOS are just running the MIcro Ranges off the Hourly.
AMEX:VXX
by HK_L61
3
VXX - Trending Cloud FailureAfter early Entry failed, SOH became the operation. Unable to Push through the Trending Cloud proved to be the warning sign. It was correct, and we were frankly lucky to have done nothing as it was difficult. ______________________________________________ Patience won that round as it wins about every round. I can't imagine the misery there, as the 120 Minute reversal was surreal in nature, an 11.5% Nike Whoosh Buzzsaw. A full retracement is underway. Volatility was crushed, beaten with the Ugly Stick as the Raven went full Edgar Allen.
AMEX:VXX
by HK_L61
4
VXX - No Break of Trending CloudWe are cautiously observing the 30 Day Constant Maturity Short End Curve. We've seen 2 Taps of the Daily Trendline and a move above, with successive Higher Highs. For 2021 the Full .500 was exceeded. The 55 SMA, on balance, is acting as Support. At present, the ES is holding up better than Tech, by no large margin, but on balance, better as the NQ continues to grind lower, making successively lower lows, the ES continues to pivot around and now below the 4616 Level. Unable to break through the Trending Cloud has us on the sidelines for now, subject to immediate change should the Trend Cloud be broken. At this juncture, we prefer confirmation as opposed to taking the trade, positioning early @ 21.785 was a mistake, as there were lower entries. In addition, there is no reason to chase at this point in time. This is what remains the signal for entry and we've committed to SOH last Friday for the VX Complex as there is time and although our bias may be down due to larger indications... we've seen far too many unexpected reversals at times where the duck, dodge, dip, dive, jive tribe has managed to pull unexpected and unwarranted Dwight Goodman moves. 126 minutes to go until the Raven unloads, the FED will update the Dot Plot today. Although we believe Higher is the path... we'll let it prove out. It has not as of yet. Patience
AMEX:VXX
by HK_L61
2
VXX - Abandoned Ship2.14 P/C at present which should peak near 2.24. Many Traders believe the FED will Punt. We do not. The VIX itself, being left for dead during a rollover. Meanwhile, CALLs are selling at 354% to 427% prem to PUTs. ____________________________________________ INdices are rallying, as they do ahead of the FED. Money Flows are positive into Equities, into Protection we are back to extremely negative. Captial continues to Slosh around while Executives at the 7 continue to Sell Shares - MSFT is a solid example where One ETM sold 50% of their shares. _____________________________________________ The Weekly Charts remain our point of reference for rejection, were it to expand the Channel, then it is an entirely different conversation. An over-throw is possible. ______________________________________________ As Divergences continue to build on the Larger TFs we will Observe the Weekly UTL. _____________________________________________ What is fragile does not prefer disorder or random. It seeks stability and predictability. The fragile is damaged by infrequent events. In particular, when they become increasingly frequent. INcreasing Amplitudes within increasing Frequency, are a warning. Events Unknown, unseen, unaccounted...
AMEX:VXX
by HK_L61