DJP trade ideas
Short the Vix through VXXThe vix had a flare up from the mass confusion and frenzy caused by the huge short squeezes on AMC and GME. That is going to die down and continue to subside.
As this subsides, the vix, a.k.a. the Fear Index, is going to steadly decline. Short the vix. VXX is a good investment vehicle to play the vix through.
VXX, Long hedge posistion Here is my take on the VXX which I longed as the QQQ broke its upward channel support trendline and spy , which already broke its channel support, made lower lows .
Good luck ~
VXX spiked todayVXX spiked today obviously.
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, risk management
Beware of analysts motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
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Big organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
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pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
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VXX prediction for next pop. Notice the pattern. Down-wedges followed by a pop. The angles of the wedges are all very similar. The pops are also similar with 2 pops to around $50 and last pop to $78 (due to covid) .
Various time/$ measurements are shown including:
1. Top ones (light blue): the range of the pops.
2. Bottom ones (blue and pink): The range of pop-end to beginning of next pop.
NOTE: The last cycle is not complete, so an overlapping blue and pink are shown corresponding to previous to see if they give any info. We are close to the blue on x-axis (time) so if a pop happens NOW, we would correlate cyclically. Would be great, but can only confirm with hindsight.
Brought out time cycle bubbles (green) to see if any more predictive patterns emerge. Not at very top of chart the arrow icons. These correspond to intersections of the SMA (smoothed moving average = orange line) and the ends of the green cycle time bubbles. The green arrows imply that they line up nicely. The orange arrows do not correlate to a big pop (but there was a "small" pop (50%, small not small!) hence i put orange instead of red).
Going to the last cycle which isn't complete, we place the question mark (purple) to see if the SMA will peak here. If we assume this pattern could be something, we would expect price action preceding the question mark to cause a dramatic rise in price to change the trajectory of SMA to form a peak. 1st and 3rd "pops" lasted about 30 days. The 2nd "pop" lasted about 90 days. The next cylce time (green bubble) ends 2/15, so we have roughly 100 days left.
SO.....this sucker should still pop (if these "patterns" mean anything. And it should be a good one (to create SMA peak). And it should be relatively "soon" (for position traders and some swing traders).
Caveats: This is not a great "stock" for day traders. This is not a great stock for position traders either, as there is a natural decay and this is a loser if held for too long. The is probably best as a swing trade and a hedge against market with plan to hold on until there is an exit or around 100 days. (by then election drama and hopefully covid drama will have also dissipated and hence if nothing happens by then it would make sense to abandon this play and cut losses.
If anyone has any insight as to a new bottom for this latest cycle please do share. Considering some price averaging, but i'm a bit gun shy now watching this one slip......
VXX and EquitiesVXX (Volatility Index) is starting to show bullishness which means volatility could pick up.
If VXX successfully breaks the rectangle, we can expect wild swings that could happen in equities (NASDAQ, SP500).
Prepare for downside if ever that happens for equities.
Volatility Contraction -
Falling Wedge Contraction Pattern, Cyclical.
(VXX) " ETNs are designed to provide exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures, the Index is designed to provide access to equity market volatility through CBOE Volatility, the Index offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts "
VXX LONG - VIX Volatility Explosion ComingThe VXX is ready to explode to the upside. The S&P 500 is quite overbought when looking at many indicators and sentiment warning signs.
There is a clear Ending Diagonal (Bullish Wedge) on the VXX.
The VXX goes up when volatility on the S&P 500 goes up. The VXX tracks the VIX.
The last leg of the diagonal may be completed already and is poised to run higher.
The ranges on the daily bars of the VXX are very tight and this is generally a warning sign that the VXX will pivot to the upside decisively.
Volatility Increase in coming weeksThe volatility index is in a downtrend similar to before the march correction. The blue lines are price targets/areas of resistance.
Within 1-2 weeks from this post:
The price will cross over the trendline or we will see more reversal candlesticks
The macD will cross
There will be a bullish divergence on MacD
This chart lines up very well with the chart I previously posted of UVXY which I will link.
short the vix via VXX, buy puts or sell callsAs uncertainty leaves the market, the Vix should stabilize. I would buy a long put or sell a long call, as it could take a while for it to check down to the lower trend line.
Keep in mind, there is always the possibility of a catastrophic or unforeseen event that could send it through the roof so don't risk too much. Always keep your side bets to less than 5% of your overall account value, 10% at the most for extremely high conviction plays.
VXX is the perfect way to play volatility. For instance, if you expect a period of heightened uncertainty and volatile days where the market is churning, you could buy some VXX as short-term protection against high volume sell-off days.
$VXX 15mBeautfil inverse head and shoulders. Rising RSI and bullish Macd cross. Looking for a big move early next week. Prics targets indicated to the right.
-Im long 1/22 18 calls
Jan Hedge: VXX Puts - 22 Jan expiryJanuary's Hedge Trade
This trade hedges PG my secondary trade which is riskier as it was strategically structured to be the opposite of the border market movement. Hence if PG surges this should mitigate the loss.
It is 15% of the premium from Jan's Primary and Secondary trade. If things go well I should not need to cash this at all.
Bought 7 Puts @ 1.10, Strike 17
It requires an est -7% drop to reach the strike
VXX - My guess for the next big spikeBased on the patterns in the RSI and MACD over the last few weeks.
Waiting a moment to bet on VXXHi,
I'm VIX Man.
Let's wait patiently to get more number of shares.
Always focus on avg down & increasing the number of shares to get rich.
bull run is coming Great hedge for the crazy bull stock market. I smell a market reset soon... very soon.
