US Markets vs Real WorldEconomist David Levy recently wrote an article "Ready For The Next Big Recession?" David sees global economic pressures adding to a global recession that will be much worse than 2008-09. US employers are not too worried about a possible global slowdown. Employers are creating jobs at the fastest rate since the 1990's. However, they should be concerned. Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) nations, along with Japan and European nations growth has either been muted for several years or on a decline.
There's been an adage that many have followed over the years, "when the US economy sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold". This is not the case this time. The rest of the world economies have matured, developed and grown up. If you take a look at the CIA World Factbook, other than the US 14-15 Trillion Gross World Product, the rest world sits at roughly 62 Trillion or 76% of Gross World Product. Looking deeper into the numbers, worlds GDP real growth rates peaked in 2011 at 3.8%, followed by lower numbers in 2012 at 3.1% and in 2013 at 2.9%. The slowing growth is evident.
Signs are out there already, suggesting that David Levy, might be correct. European Banks are still stuck with trillions of dollars with bad loans from the financial crisis in 2008. To rid banking problem, European Central Bank recently went negative interest. This will encourage European Banks to swap or write off bad debt, while loaning new loans and earning a reward visa via the ECB. However, the burden of debt from the 2008 financial crisis is enormous. It will take a lager intervention, such as the ECB purchasing each euro-zone's members major banks bad debt. No one sees this happening, since the ECB has been reactionary since 08, waiting to catch the falling porridge before the mess heaps over and causes a bad spill. However, Eurozone problem is only the beginning of problems.
Another situation that is concerning is BRIC nations, Brazil, Russia, India, China. These countries have been highly dependent on consumer spending in developed countries such as US, Europe, and Japan. With US as the only growing developed country, we are seeing a slack in demand and an overabundance in supplies from the BRICs. Over supplying is a big problem for the BRICs. These nations have seen vast increases in standard of living. Without a growing demand from developed economies, none of these nations will survive too long. What's really scary is the means at which these businesses are spending there capital. We have skyline cranes building skyscrapers everywhere. Al-Waleed, chairman of Kingdom Holding Company (KHC), is building the largest building in the world, along with a Kingdom City marked at $20 Billion US. In Miami, Fl, foreigners are buying up condos like kids in a candy store, 1,2, 3 is not enough. From anyone who studies financial history, it is a know fact that every major recession has been proceeded by a Florida housing boom. It also known that in the US, colleges are spending money like there's no tomorrow. There is a crane, or 8, at every major institution in the US. Perhaps the education bubble will also set this recession on fire. I too agree we are only a year or two away from another major melt down.
Chart above shows how US markets are running up a mountain while the rest of the world has yet to break above the 2008 financial bubble highs.
